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-   -   It doesn't look good for Romney (http://www.cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=16322)

Jeff Lebowski 01-30-2008 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeattleUte (Post 179371)
Considering all that Romney has going for him, money money money, views in line with the conservatative base, articulate, youth, good looks, attractive family, family dynasty in early populous primary, former governor, governor of hugely populous and sophisticated state, big head start in campaigning and leading polls in key early states, hopelessly flawed opponents, economy turning out the be the major issue, spectacular success in business, he sure has turned out to be a punchless candidate. It's like that year the Lakers signed Malone, Payton, Shaq, etc. and couldn't win the division.

I am stunned that he has gone as far as he has. Don't kid yourself. He has over-achieved.

Tex 01-30-2008 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius (Post 179413)
It really wasn't meant to be degree smack. I was trying to be funny. I clearly failed. UofC in my discipline is the home of the "efficient market hypothesis." Anyone who has a PhD in Finance from UofC usually views the efficient market hypothesis the way we might view the book of Mormon; its the keystone of our religion. I am duty bound to hold the betting market and all other financial markets in such high regard. I was trying to poke fun at myself and how seriously I take signals from the market. You are right that I should have not said anything or found a way to say it without mentioning the degree. I am sorry that it come off so poorly.

I owe you an apology. I thought it was out of character, and I should've considered that.

I guess I take enough flack on this site, I can occasionally get on edge, but that's no excuse. Thanks for clarifying.

myboynoah 01-30-2008 01:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski (Post 179420)
I am stunned that he has gone as far as he has. Don't kid yourself. He has over-achieved.

I would think so. A Mormon Governor from Mass and all the baggage that brings with it. McCain has been in the limelight for so long, is such a media favorite, and has run before. Good showing by Mitt.

I really don't see McCain ever being president and wonder if he won't go down as a Repub Walter Mondale. He has already lost the conservatie talk radio crowd; not a good harbinger.

Having made this run, Mitt should come back in four years.

Jeff Lebowski 01-30-2008 01:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woot (Post 179306)
So is McCain the nominee then? With Giuiliani hinting of dropping, Thompson gone, and Huckabee broke, It really is down to Romney and McCain. Knowing that, is Florida really a must win for Romney as much as you guys are saying?

Yeah, that's my question. Mitt comes from way behind in Florida (look at his recent trend) to miss by only 3-4%. Is this as dire as folks are making it out? Seems premature to me. But what do I know?

Tex 01-30-2008 01:18 AM

Well, that's too bad. Romney will probably stick around, but really moves solidly into the "longshot" category with tonight's loss. One wonders what would've happened had Huckabee not split the conservative vote with him.

With McCain as it's nominee the Republican party is going to be in a weird place, no longer headed by someone who has any claim on conservatism. He might beat Hillary; I doubt he beats Obama.

Tja, we had to have Carter in order to appreciate Reagan, right?

ute4ever 01-30-2008 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 179425)
One wonders what would've happened had Huckabee not split the conservative vote with him.

Huckabee should be well aware that the longer he stays in the campaign, the more he hurts Romney's chances. It is now apparent that he has no chance to get the nomination, but he can decide whether to crush Romney's campaign by waiting a week to bow out rather than doing so tomorrow.

I'll save this country from that no-good Joe Smith cult worshipper...

myboynoah 01-30-2008 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ute4ever (Post 179428)
Huckabee should be well aware that the longer he stays in the campaign, the more he hurts Romney's chances. It is now apparent that he has no chance to get the nomination, but he can decide whether to crush Romney's campaign by waiting a week to bow out rather than doing so tomorrow.

I'll save this country from that no-good Joe Smith cult worshipper...

He's staying in for sure. He is dumb enough to think McCain would actually choose him as VP.

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 01:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 179425)
Well, that's too bad. Romney will probably stick around, but really moves solidly into the "longshot" category with tonight's loss. One wonders what would've happened had Huckabee not split the conservative vote with him.

With McCain as it's nominee the Republican party is going to be in a weird place, no longer headed by someone who has any claim on conservatism. He might beat Hillary; I doubt he beats Obama.

Tja, we had to have Carter in order to appreciate Reagan, right?

I am honestly shocked that people are already naming McCain the unavoidable nominee.

MikeWaters 01-30-2008 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179438)
I am honestly shocked that people are already naming McCain the unavoidable nominee.

what states will Romney win?

What big names have endorsed Romney?

Huckabee prevents Romney from winning in southern states.

even if they went to convention, every other single candidate would endorse McCain.

Talk by reporters of GOP power brokers "consolidating" around McCain.

In polls, Romney's electability in general election is low.

BlueK 01-30-2008 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters (Post 179439)
what states will Romney win?

What big names have endorsed Romney?

Huckabee prevents Romney from winning in southern states.

even if they went to convention, every other single candidate would endorse McCain.

Talk by reporters of GOP power brokers "consolidating" around McCain.

In polls, Romney's electability in general election is low.

Cougarboard is in full meltdown mode tonight.

NorCal Cat 01-30-2008 02:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters (Post 179439)
what states will Romney win?

What big names have endorsed Romney?

Huckabee prevents Romney from winning in southern states.

even if they went to convention, every other single candidate would endorse McCain.

Talk by reporters of GOP power brokers "consolidating" around McCain.

In polls, Romney's electability in general election is low.

What big names have endorsed McCain?

Romney can win plenty of delegates from California. It is not winner take all. You get 3 delegates for each Congressional district you win. There's also Utah, Colorado, Montanan, Alaska, and a few other states Romney can win.

Tex 01-30-2008 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179438)
I am honestly shocked that people are already naming McCain the unavoidable nominee.

I didn't say McCain was unavoidable, but he's "in charge of his own destiny" as we say in football. Assuming he doesn't stumble along the way somewhere, the nomination is his to lose.

Jeff Lebowski 01-30-2008 02:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueK (Post 179443)
Cougarboard is in full meltdown mode tonight.

Yes indeed. Some hilarious stuff going on over there. I forgot how nutty that group is.

tooblue 01-30-2008 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ute4ever (Post 179428)
Huckabee should be well aware that the longer he stays in the campaign, the more he hurts Romney's chances. It is now apparent that he has no chance to get the nomination, but he can decide whether to crush Romney's campaign by waiting a week to bow out rather than doing so tomorrow.

I'll save this country from that no-good Joe Smith cult worshipper...

It really is about religion.

myboynoah 01-30-2008 02:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue (Post 179453)
It really is about religion.

I think that can be a big part of it with Evangelicals. I heard a woman on the radio the other day say that she couldn't vote for Romney "because of her faith." Not his faith, her faith.

I doubt she came up with this on her own. There is a certain wing of Evangelicals that are very cultish in their sheep-like tendancy to follow and believe what they are told by their religious leaders. I'm sure Romney's Mormonism has been discussed and she has been told not to vote for him.

This bothers me and other Mormons. That religion and politics are separate is pounded into our heads from the time we are very young. Furthermore, we vote freely for people rarely knowing their religious affiliation (I know, I know, not in Utah. I point out that there are more North American Mormons living outside Utah than inside.). It would be out of the norm to disqualify anyone based on such a thing.

We feel like they are cheating. And it may also bring up upleasent memories of times past when persecution of our forebearers went ahead with the support of such "Christian" people.

tooblue 01-30-2008 03:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by myboynoah (Post 179463)
I think that can be a big part of it with Evangelicals. I heard a woman on the radio the other day say that she couldn't vote for Romney "because of her faith." Not his faith, her faith.

I doubt she came up with this on her own. There is a certain wing of Evangelicals that are very cultish in their sheep-like tendancy to follow and believe what they are told by their religious leaders. I'm sure Romney's Mormonism has been discussed and she has been told not to vote for him.

This bothers me and other Mormons. That religion and politics are separate is pounded into our heads from the time we are very young. Furthermore, we vote freely for people rarely knowing their religious affiliation (I know, I know, not in Utah. I point out that there are more North American Mormons living outside Utah than inside.). It would be out of the norm to disqualify anyone based on such a thing.

We feel like they are cheating. And it may also bring up upleasent memories of times past when persecution of our forebearers went ahead with the support of such "Christian" people.

There is only one reason for Huckabee to stay in the race ... it is not hard to imagine a brokered deal will result in Huckabee receiving some contibutions that will help him hang on just long enough for McCain to win super Tuesday.

ute4ever 01-30-2008 03:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue (Post 179453)
It really is about religion.

You were the one who started those threads a few weeks back weren't you?

Many good points.

MikeWaters 01-30-2008 03:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue (Post 179476)
There is only one reason for Huckabee to stay in the race ... it is not hard to imagine a brokered deal will result in Huckabee receiving some contibutions that will help him hang on just long enough for McCain to win super Tuesday.

why does he need contributions? he hasn't had any anyway until now.

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 03:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 179449)
I didn't say McCain was unavoidable, but he's "in charge of his own destiny" as we say in football. Assuming he doesn't stumble along the way somewhere, the nomination is his to lose.

I disagree. I think you are going to see a backlash from conservative elements within the Republican party who begin to ask, "are you kidding me? THIS guy is our nominee?"

If your party has any spine left, they will. Otherwise, welcome to irrelevance.

tooblue 01-30-2008 04:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters (Post 179491)
why does he need contributions? he hasn't had any anyway until now.

To keep his campaign going.

tooblue 01-30-2008 04:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue (Post 179506)
To keep his campaign going.

Chris Mathews just brought my point up right now!

MikeWaters 01-30-2008 04:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue (Post 179506)
To keep his campaign going.

how much money does it take to put your wife and yourself in a motel 6?

before Iowa there were literally like 5 people in his campaign.

tooblue 01-30-2008 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue (Post 179509)
Chris Mathews just brought my point up right now!

And now Tim Russert has brought up my point at 12:11 am eastern!

Tex 01-30-2008 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179502)
I disagree. I think you are going to see a backlash from conservative elements within the Republican party who begin to ask, "are you kidding me? THIS guy is our nominee?"

I would've thought that would've happened by now. Romney only won the conservative vote by 10, and the Republican vote by 2 (or so I'm hearing). And obviously, Huckabee remaining around is a problem.

It may yet happen (I certainly hope so), but I think after tonight the odds diminish.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179502)
If your party has any spine left, they will. Otherwise, welcome to irrelevance.

*Tex rolls his eyes.* Oh, the melodrama.

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 05:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 179592)
I would've thought that would've happened by now. Romney only won the conservative vote by 10, and the Republican vote by 2 (or so I'm hearing). And obviously, Huckabee remaining around is a problem.



*Tex rolls his eyes.* Oh, the melodrama.

Your party is dangerously close to fracturing and running a third party candidate. Irrelevance could be a mere 9 months away. Republicans don't know what their party is anymore, or where they want it to go. They are living in the past, trying to find a Ronald Reagan to fit into the 21st century. In the process, they might discover Jimmy Carter instead.

I don't think a backlash would have happened already, by the way. Republicans have been dancing around trying to figure out which of the 5 candidates is most like Reagan. They went so far as to find an actor to run for president. Now that the party is down to two people, and the frontrunner is nothing like Reagan, you will see a backlash. It is all a bit desperate and amusing from my perspective.

Tex 01-30-2008 05:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179605)
Your party is dangerously close to fracturing and running a third party candidate. Irrelevance could be a mere 9 months away. Republicans don't know what their party is anymore, or where they want it to go. They are living in the past, trying to find a Ronald Reagan to fit into the 21st century. In the process, they might discover Jimmy Carter instead.

I don't think a backlash would have happened already, by the way. Republicans have been dancing around trying to figure out which of the 5 candidates is most like Reagan. They went so far as to find an actor to run for president. Now that the party is down to two people, and the frontrunner is nothing like Reagan, you will see a backlash. It is all a bit desperate and amusing from my perspective.

Heh, rumors of the Republican Party's demise are greatly exaggerated. Don't you wish.

The party is experiencing some growing pains, no doubt, but I'd rather have our internal debate be over issues than over race. Worry about your own problems, mate.

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 179625)
Heh, rumors of the Republican Party's demise are greatly exaggerated. Don't you wish.

The party is experiencing some growing pains, no doubt, but I'd rather have our internal debate be over issues than over race. Worry about your own problems, mate.

Your internal debate was over race, at least in 2004 when Bush accused McCain of having a black baby.

At the end of your debate, we got Bush. At the end of our debate, we can get Obama. We win.

SeattleUte 01-30-2008 05:23 AM

Is it possible to short sell Cali? Every prediciton he's made this election has been spectacularly wrong. It's comical.

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 05:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeattleUte (Post 179635)
Is it possible to short sell Cali? Every prediciton he's made this election has been spectacularly wrong. It's comical.

Every prediction? I think I have been pretty close on most of them. Care to compare?

SeattleUte 01-30-2008 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179640)
Every prediction? I think I have been pretty close on most of them. Care to compare?

Your have been very cock sure in saying that Romney and Obama would be the nominees. Pretty close. LOL. I guess that's one way to put it.

Tex 01-30-2008 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179630)
Your internal debate was over race, at least in 2004 when Bush accused McCain of having a black baby.

At the end of your debate, we got Bush. At the end of our debate, we can get Obama. We win.

Oh brother. That little tiff in SC in 2000 (not 2004) was child's play compared to the Clintons' race baiting. Your comparison is so poor I'm stunned you made it, even for you.

For the first time in a few decades, the Dems are actually opening the door to alienating large numbers of blacks. Should be interesting.

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeattleUte (Post 179646)
Your have been very cock sure in saying that Romney and Obama would be the nominees. Pretty close. LOL. I guess that's one way to put it.

??? Have Clinton and McCain already won? Did I miss something? At least pick a prediction that is definitely wrong. There are some out there, but like I said- care to compare?

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showpos...32&postcount=1

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showpos...2&postcount=13

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showpos...13&postcount=2

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6729

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showpos...70&postcount=8

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showpos...48&postcount=9

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 05:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 179651)
Oh brother. That little tiff in SC in 2000 (not 2004) was child's play compared to the Clintons' race baiting. Your comparison is so poor I'm stunned you made it, even for you.

For the first time in a few decades, the Dems are actually opening the door to alienating large numbers of blacks. Should be interesting.

And yet for the first time in decades, blacks are voting in droves in the Democratic primary.

Child's play compared to Clinton's race baiting? I am not going to defend what the Clintons said, but how can you even place it on par with accusing your opponent of siring a black baby? Comparing Obama's win to that of Jesse Jackson is WORSE than saying McCain fathered a black child? At least I know where your moral compass lies (pun intended).

Tex 01-30-2008 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179662)
And yet for the first time in decades, blacks are voting in droves in the Democratic primary.

Oh please. They've been doing that for decades already. How do pass yourself off as knowing anything about politics?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179662)
Child's play compared to Clinton's race baiting? I am not going to defend what the Clintons said, but how can you even place it on par with accusing your opponent of siring a black baby? Comparing Obama's win to that of Jesse Jackson is WORSE than saying McCain fathered a black child? At least I know where your moral compass lies (pun intended).

Cali you aren't this stupid. The scope isn't even in the same category. You're pointing your finger at your neighbor for having affair while running your own whore house.

Cali Coug 01-30-2008 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 179681)
Oh please. They've been doing that for decades already. How do pass yourself off as knowing anything about politics?



Cali you aren't this stupid. The scope isn't even in the same category. You're pointing your finger at your neighbor for having affair while running your own whore house.

The turnout among black voters so far has been unprecedented, and that trend looks likely to continue. I am not even going to continue to argue about a Jesse Jackson quote v you have a black baby accusation. One is awful, the other is AWFUL.

Tex 01-30-2008 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 179684)
The turnout among black voters so far has been unprecedented, and that trend looks likely to continue. I am not even going to continue to argue about a Jesse Jackson quote v you have a black baby accusation. One is awful, the other is AWFUL.

It's not about how AWFUL it is (and I agree the "black baby" thing is bad). We're talking about party schisms ... there's no lasting evidence of damage to the Republican party from a few miscreant Bush supporters making a stupid accusation. We do as poorly among blacks as ever. The Dems on the other hand, in particular the Clintons, risk alienating huge numbers of voters if they end up with the nomination. It's amazing to me your attention span is so narrow.

In any case, the Republican party is going to be just fine. There's not going to be .... *chuckle* ... a 3rd party candidate. Conservatism may not win out this year, but it's not going anywhere, much to your liberal chagrin.


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