It doesn't look good for Romney
 

I think the exit polling information is leaking into the prices on intrade. Betting has swung toward McCain; last trade was $65. My guess is that the exit polls are fairly close but favor McCain by 4-5 percentage points.

Romney if he loses Fla. I think should get out. I know he has the money to do it, but it will be a real rough go. Besides that it will get trashier and trashier. He won't have media support and looks like the republican washington base is going to give it to one of their own.

I don't look forward to the elections. Not too much to choose from.

Yeah, doesn't look good. I tend to agree, but suspect he will stay through next week. By then he should save his money and leave the field to McCain and we'll suffer through November.

He can then come back in four years after Hillary or Obama has made a disaster of things.

Here is some actual exit poll information out of Florida...
 

Well, THAT little city certainly liked Romney.

To lose Pres. Hinckley one day, and then have the 2nd greatest Mormon figure lose the next day.........heads will implode.

That explains the pressure I'm feeling right now.

Ya, not particularly useful. The betting is still favoring McCain although it has tightened a bit. The exit polling info is almost certainly in the prices by now. I would be really surprised if the exit polls didn't favor McCain given the betting. The margin is not that big though; prices just haven't moved very much.

Per this data, more people were interested in amending their property tax than for voting for Mitt Romney.

Well, if Hair Romney loses, he will have given it a nice ride.

I can't find any exit poll information, besides this last one. Anybody have any other links?

It's not made public until after the polls close. But people who have inside access to the exit polls usually start betting on it by the afternoon.

Love Intrade. One my colleagues is really big into it. He said that due to the lack of volume it is easy to create arbitrage situations. I have noticed that While Romney trade volume for Florida has been greater over the past 5 days, the sell side has been rather limited. Buyers are lined up wanting to get in cheaply, but the spread has been tighter than McCain where the sell orders are growing.

This is not so true at the moment. There is a fair amount of depth at the ask with fairly low prices, but the ask side has thickened. the ask side is pretty thick (at least for these contracts at 45) at about $43-49.

So is McCain the nominee then? With Giuiliani hinting of dropping, Thompson gone, and Huckabee broke, It really is down to Romney and McCain. Knowing that, is Florida really a must win for Romney as much as you guys are saying?

I am interested in the position these insiders have that would give them enough insight as to the state wide vote? Given the numbers have yet to be talleyed. I mean these votes are private unlike a caucus, and so who is counting them already?

I think the trading is media driven. Crist and the top senator in Florida endorsing McCain IMO is doing more to influence the trading than any so called insiders. To actually have insiders who have access to enough district voting numbers would mean circumventing the process. Polls do not close until 7 pm EST. After that, votes will be counted.

So if you can shed any light on how these insiders secure voting numbers to base their intrade positions on, I would be much obliged.

The theory is that they have access to exit polling data, not actual vote numbers. Of course they would need to have broad spectrum of districts or some key bell weather districts.

This "virtual market," wherein the numbers are fake and the scores don't matter, thinks Romney is having a pretty good day.

http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/market/show/8036

http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/

myboynoah is right. There is a lot evidence that people with access to the exit polls used by the media to make projections trade on intrade. For example, in 2004 some traders clearly had the "bad" exit poll data and were trading on it early in the day (Kerry had quite a run-up in the afternoon). The market broke back very quickly once it became apparent the exit polls were flawed. The market figured out the "bad" exiting polling quite a bit before the media did.

Obviously the exit polls aren't perfect predictors particularly if turnout is bigger than expected or the demographics are different than expected. In those cases, the sample might not representative.

I'm now projecting that McCain is the winner.

Yeah, the bottom just fell out on Romney.

Interesting. Here are some of the trades on Romney's stock:

Jan 29, 6:07:22 PM EST 116 Lots @ 29 Price is lower then before
Jan 29, 6:06:48 PM EST 1 Lots @ 29.1 Price is greater then before
Jan 29, 6:06:48 PM EST 68 Lots @ 29 Price is lower then before
Jan 29, 6:05:28 PM EST 2 Lots @ 29.1 Price is lower then before
Jan 29, 6:03:18 PM EST 3 Lots @ 31.1 Price is same as before

Looks like two people recently gave up on a substantial amount of their shares.

Welcome, Rep nominee McCain. Not one to stir up your passions about. Whoopee, another non-businessman, career politician. Yippee.

McCain Clinton, boooooorrrring.

Woah, McCain's numbers are going back down. They were at 68 a minute ago, and just dropped back down to 63.

Do you think that maybe nobody knows?

Why would you conclude Romney isn't the nominee? I still think he wins Florida, and even if he doesn't, I think he wins the nomination.

Most people forget that the majority of the Republican primaries are closed. That blunts the effect of independents. Also, Obama is going to be competing in those states where independents might be allowed to vote in the Republican primary (unlike Florida, where he has been totally absent). That will suck votes away from McCain like a Hoover.

McCain isn't popular amongst the base, and the base is still going to pick the nominee. You will see a lot of negative ads running about McCain from unidentified groups if he wins today. The elite of the Republican party will find ways to sabotage his campaign, and McCain is also prone to being a bit crazy from time to time.

He won't win the nomination. Bank on it.

You posted this while I was typing, but it just reinforces my opinion. I don't think the markets are much of a predictor, and I am not too surprised they are all over the place right now. There isn't a ton of information available, so many may be seeing slight trends in the pricing, think they are based on "insider info" and go crazy with their trading based off of the non-existant insider info. When it gets totally out of whack, it crashes down the opposite direction.

It's strange. A lot a volatility. It could be that the exit polls are indeed favorable to McCain but some traders are skeptical of the exit polls given the turnout or the amount of absentee ballots

Seems like to me there's a little too much faith being put in Intrade, and I'm not just saying that because my preferred candidate is down.

"I will go before you and make the rough places smooth; I will shatter the doors of bronze and cut through their iron bars."

This sort of faith is assumed when when the person who starts the thread has a PhD from the Univeristy of Chicago.

Remember Cali said Obama would "sweep to the democratic nomination."

If economy dominated, it would be surprising if Romney lost.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vo...4211960&page=1

Considering all that Romney has going for him, money money money, views in line with the conservatative base, articulate, youth, good looks, attractive family, family dynasty in early populous primary, former governor, governor of hugely populous and sophisticated state, big head start in campaigning and leading polls in key early states, hopelessly flawed opponents, economy turning out the be the major issue, spectacular success in business, he sure has turned out to be a punchless candidate. It's like that year the Lakers signed Malone, Payton, Shaq, etc. and couldn't win the division.

There are a lot of people with lingering doubts about Romney's geuineness.

However I just had a long-lost high school friend contact me, and he is one of those devout Christian guys, and lives in the midwest, and says he likes Romney.

So if he is capturing the interest of guys like that, it bodes well for him.

Prove he won't! ;)

It will be interesting to see if the insidious Christian right really holds that much genuine sway in the Republican party or the party has just needlessly pandered to them because they are so vocal and unified, albeit a minority group. If McCain wins maybe we'll know the answer. Once Hukster drops out Romney will be the only option for these people. Barbara told me they comprise a large percentage only in the less populous red states.

That Laker team won the division.

Should have said they couldn't hardly win the division.

Ooo, is that degree smack? Wouldn't a pegged you for an elitist, pelagius.

Romney may end up losing, but it's not like Intrade is a perfect predictor.

It really wasn't meant to be degree smack. I was trying to be funny. I clearly failed. UofC in my discipline is the home of the "efficient market hypothesis." Anyone who has a PhD in Finance from UofC usually views the efficient market hypothesis the way we might view the book of Mormon; its the keystone of our religion. I am duty bound to hold the betting market and all other financial markets in such high regard. I was trying to poke fun at myself and how seriously I take signals from the market. You are right that I should have not said anything or found a way to say it without mentioning the degree. I am sorry that it come off so poorly.