presidential poll try again
 

If the following candidates appeared on your ballot, which would you vote for?

John McCain, Republican
Barack Obama, Democrat
Bob Barr, Libertarian
Ralph Nader, independent
Chuck Baldwin, Constitution
Cynthia McKinney, Green

Some one show BlueK how to do a poll.

I finally figured it out. :-)

I'm leaving the presidential box blank.

Third party candidates are a big problem (not so much this election). We should modify the process like some countries do where all but two are eliminated before the final election.

why are they a problem? I didn't think they got enough votes to be a problem. But if in the unlikely event a third party candidate got enough electoral votes to keep anyone from getting a majority, there is already a provision in the Constitution to deal with that. I would say let the scenario just play out. The country wouldn't fall apart.

With only a month to go it's going to be darn near impossible for McCain to make up that much ground.

Ha. They have NC leaning Obama. Now that's funny.

The trend should be the most worrisome part for McCain. This graph's from yesterday. I read that his deficit is two points greater today.

If only McCain could have announced his VP selection on November 1st, he might have had a chance. As it is, McCain's rate of decline would make Tom Petty proud.

http://lh4.ggpht.com/ldsawyer/SOy4RX...llup_daily.jpg

They're a problem in that they can sway a state's electoral votes to the wrong person.

Politician A 46%
Politician B 44%
Policitian C (more closely aligned to B than A) 10%

They're a nuisance. If they can't break the top two, they have no business being there.

this is why I love Barr.

The flaw in your analysis is that you think it's easy to determine who is more closely aligned to whom. It's far more complicated than that. A recent poll of Barr supporters showed 56% prefered Obama over McCain. The reason, I think, is that people who decide to buck convention to vote for a third party guy are doing it because they have long given up the desire to vote for a major party candidate. Even if most Libertarians came from the GOP, that doesn't mean they are more closely aligned. In fact, on many issues (civil liberties, etc.) they are more closely aligned with the democrats right now.

How is that a flaw in my analysis? The potential is obviously there to screw with the system. If it happens once in one state in one election, then it's a problem.

It's a flaw because you think the one getting the 46% is not worthy to win because those other 10% somehow belong to the one getting 44%. I'm saying you can't so easily make that assumption.

Isn't this pretty simple math? If a third party candidate ever gets votes c such that c > a - b (votes for candidates a and b), it's very possible that a two man election could have provided different outcome.

It's happened in the past and it will happen in the future. It's a bad practice.

I guess I'm saying I don't see that as a problem. The fewer the candidates, the more voters have to vote for the lesser of evils. Just because a two candidate election may deliver a different result doesn't mean more people got someone who represents them better.

The winner of an election doesn't have to be the majority choice. As long as everyone has the same rules the winner could be the one who gets the most votes. This is a republic and not a true democracy. That's why we have an electoral college rather than just going with the popular vote. The electoral college forces a situation where the winner gets the majority of the votes that count. If the electors can't decide, then our elected representatives decide it. I have no problem with that, and I think more voices rather than fewer would actually lead to a better result than what we have now which is two major candidates making themselves look as similar as possible to get that voter in the middle. What was up with McCain's new bailout proposal last night? I"m seeing less and less difference between the dems and the GOP every day. If congress had to form different coalitions to get bills passed every day, they would either pass fewer laws, which would be good in my book, or they would have to listen to more viewpoints and of necessity they'd have to represent more than just two views on everything.

I seriously doubt NC will go Democrat. The thought is amusing.

what makes it seem nearly impossible for McCain to pull this off is that Obama has solid leads in every state the democrats carried last time. To win he only needs to steal a couple of states from McCain and it appears that is going to happen. The states Cali mentioned don't even have to be in play.

Heh. Arizona is not in play either.

I don't believe it. On either one.

Man, no love for McCain. Where's Seattle? Archie? exUte? Surely more than just A-A will vote Republican.

I'm not voting in this. I might find myself alone in a category with exUte and Il Padrino.

speaks volumes.

heehee!

You make me laugh, SU. You think you're insulting me, but the truth is, you aren't and can't. I don't think highly enough of you to take anything you say seriously.

Can I write in Mike Waters?

I'm very glad this was a public poll. I was very curious to find out CaliCoug's choice in this election.

SteelBlue is the big shocker in this one. I always had him pegged as a solid GOPer.

I am holding out to see how Tex votes.

You just never know with that guy. Truth be told, I have no clue how Tex will vote in every single election for the rest of his life. Absolutely no idea....

Bob Barr looks better but that's a vote for Obama. If the loss is as foregone a conclusion as it appears now, I'll vote for Barr.

I don't know about you, but I am surprised to see how Il Pad is going to vote.

I have never voted for a democrat before, but the more I listen to McCain the more I want to vote for the other guy no matter who he is.

:D

I've never had a reason to vote for a Democrat for POTUS.

If I thought a vote for Barr wouldn't be a vote for Obama, I'd vote for him. My vote for McCain is more a vote against Obama than anything else.

I've aligned myself with my fellow SS Gruppenfuehrer, DDD, and am voting for Obama. However, playing my usual role as peacemaker in this troubled venue, I'm voting for Barack because it will help with missionary work. I can't tell you how many teaching opportunities I lost in '71-'73 due to the Europeans' contempt for Nixon. Given that Obama is enjoying JFK-like adoration on the continent, the Church will be seen in a far more favorable light than if McCain were elected. I thus conclude that people who vote for McCain don't have a testimony.

I can see SU putting a McCain sign on his front lawn as I write this. Tex, take note.

This is exactly what I've been saying - a vote for a third party candidate is a vote for Obama. Even in our little poll here, the 3rd party candidates allow Obama to get the larger number of votes.

I was quite surprised to find this morning that at this point in the election of 2000, Gore had a 51 to 40% lead on Bush in Gallup.

Taking comfort in such historical facts reflects the sad position Republicans are in, and my money's still on Obama. But, anything's possible I suppose.

I was curious to see where folks on here stand. And by making it public I thought it would have fewer joke answers. Of course everyone believes Indy is really voting for Nader.

Nader will get about the same number of votes as Barr in this election, so it's a wash at best. Barr also can pull some from the democrats because of civil liberty issues.

Even though I don't think I will vote for Obama, I can at least take solace that he is probably the best candidate in terms of my job security and future prospects.

Barr doesn't only pull from one side. I doubt the GOP leadership likes my stands on things like the war, the patriot act, the bailout, Bush's executive power grab, and so forth. And because of the way most people think, which is that they usually avoid third parties like the plague out of fear of casting a "wasted" vote, they are not going to vote third party until they have thoroughly and permanently divorced themselves from the major two. So even though it might seem he draws votes away from one or the other, I don't believe those votes are McCain's to get no matter what. The neocon led GOP has done a really good job the last 8 years of chasing out people like me and I will probably never vote Republican again. If anything, Bob Barr and the Libertarians are what keep me from voting for Obama instead, and I think a lot of Libertarians right now feel that way about the Republicans.

I see what you're saying, but I don't think the effect in the south is going to be large enough to overturn anything. You might be able to make a case for NC or VA, but that's about it. It may be closer this time in Texas or Georgia, but not enough for Obama to win.