| pelagius |
10-15-2008 07:51 PM |
How much would a win against TCU help
So I just wanted to gauge how much a win against TCU would help in the computer models. This isn't perfect, but I did the following: I simulated next week using the vegas spreads to determine expected margin of victory and expected win or loss. I then computed a W/L based only computer model (its a bit different than Sagarin's ELO-Chess or Massey's W/L based models but overal quite similar).
Here is the top 50 as of last week's results. BYU is 29th in this model:
Code:
NCAA Football: 2008
Computer Rating Model: W/L
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used
Rank Team Rating W L
1 Alabama 3.623 5 0
2 Texas 3.582 6 0
3 Virginia Tech 3.496 4 1
4 Utah 3.479 7 0
5 Southern Cal 3.460 4 1
6 Wake Forest 3.319 4 1
7 North Carolina 3.312 5 1
8 Oklahoma St 3.305 6 0
9 Georgia 3.295 5 1
10 Penn State 3.286 7 0
11 Texas Tech 3.280 6 0
12 Connecticut 3.264 5 1
13 Florida 3.256 5 1
14 Michigan St 3.241 6 1
15 Oklahoma 3.238 5 1
16 South Florida 3.194 5 1
17 Duke 3.179 3 2
18 Ohio State 3.179 6 1
19 California 3.172 4 1
20 Northwestern 3.171 5 1
21 Pittsburgh 3.161 4 1
22 Georgia Tech 3.135 5 1
23 Ball St 3.113 6 0
24 Kansas 3.105 5 1
25 Vanderbilt 3.104 5 1
26 Boise St 3.093 5 0
27 TCU 3.090 6 1
28 Missouri 3.072 5 1
29 Brigham Young 3.057 6 0
30 Minnesota 3.022 6 1
31 Tulsa 3.015 6 0
32 Navy 3.010 4 2
33 South Carolina 2.986 5 2
34 James Madison 2.984 6 1
35 LSU 2.971 4 1
36 Oregon St 2.946 3 3
37 Virginia 2.924 3 3
38 Notre Dame 2.906 4 2
39 Nebraska 2.896 3 3
40 Florida St 2.889 4 1
41 Cincinnati 2.881 5 1
42 Stanford 2.801 4 3
43 Western Michigan 2.795 6 1
44 Oregon 2.793 5 2
45 Weber St 2.791 3 2
46 Air Force 2.779 4 2
47 Hawai`i 2.763 3 3
48 Arkansas 2.751 3 3
49 Iowa 2.746 4 3
50 Montana 2.741 4 1
Now the results after using the Vegas spreads to determine a win or loss for this week's upcoming games. BYU jumps to 14th. So a 15 ranking jump. If BYU wins it should really help in the W/L based models.
Code:
NCAA Football: 2008
Computer Rating Model: W/L with Simulation
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used
Rank Team Rating W L
1 Texas 3.654 7 0
2 Alabama 3.642 6 0
3 Utah 3.479 8 0
4 Georgia 3.436 6 1
5 North Carolina 3.387 6 1
6 Southern Cal 3.381 5 1
7 Oklahoma St 3.357 7 0
8 Oklahoma 3.349 6 1
9 Pittsburgh 3.347 5 1
10 Florida 3.345 5 1
11 Ohio State 3.333 7 1
12 Wake Forest 3.308 5 1
13 Penn State 3.301 8 0
14 Brigham Young 3.299 7 0
15 Virginia Tech 3.263 4 2
16 Texas Tech 3.247 7 0
17 Boise St 3.239 6 0
18 South Florida 3.237 6 1
19 Georgia Tech 3.161 6 1
20 LSU 3.155 5 1
21 Northwestern 3.129 6 1
22 Ball St 3.109 6 0
23 Minnesota 3.073 6 1
24 Tulsa 3.071 7 0
25 Missouri 3.060 5 2
26 Michigan St 3.042 6 2
27 Vanderbilt 3.018 5 2
28 Cincinnati 3.015 5 1
29 Kansas 3.005 5 2
30 Boston College 2.968 5 1
31 TCU 2.964 6 2
32 South Carolina 2.931 5 3
33 Oregon St 2.931 4 3
34 Navy 2.919 4 3
35 Connecticut 2.914 5 2
36 James Madison 2.910 6 1
37 Air Force 2.894 5 2
38 Oregon 2.883 5 2
39 Notre Dame 2.881 4 2
40 Nebraska 2.869 4 3
41 California 2.867 4 2
42 Duke 2.853 3 3
43 Central Michigan 2.816 5 2
44 Kentucky 2.791 4 2
45 West Virginia 2.780 4 2
46 San José St 2.776 5 2
47 Weber St 2.771 3 2
48 Colorado 2.766 4 3
49 Montana 2.747 4 1
50 Western Michigan 2.717 6 2
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