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NY Times: as of 9/24, Obama has an 81.9% probability of winning

17 of the past 18 candidates who lead in the polls with 45 days remaining, won the election. The lone loss was Dewey to Truman.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.../?ref=politics

Quote:

The Statistical State of the Presidential Race
By NATE SILVER
With fewer than 45 days left in the presidential campaign, it’s no longer a cliché to say that every week counts. And there are a few polling-related themes we’ll be watching especially closely this week.

This is probably about the last week, for instance, in which Mitt Romney can reasonably hope that President Obama’s numbers will deteriorate organically because of a convention bounce. That is not to say that Mr. Obama’s standing could not decline later on in the race, for any number of reasons. But if they do, it will probably need to be forced by Mr. Romney’s campaign, or by developments in the news cycle, not the mere loss of post-convention momentum.

We’ll also be looking to see if there is a greater consensus in the polls this week. In general, last week’s numbers started out a bit underwhelming for Mr. Obama — suggesting that the momentum from his convention was eroding — but then picked up strength as the week wore on.

Still, there were splits among the tracking polls and among other national surveys; between state polls that called cellphones and those which did not; and among pollsters who came to a wide variety of conclusions about whose supporters were more enthusiastic and more likely to turn out.

But before we get lost in the weeds, let’s consider a more basic question. What did the polling look like at this stage in past elections, and how did it compare against the actual results?
...

Update: now with five weeks to go, current state-by-state poll numbers have Obama's likelihood of winning up to 85.1%. Electoral vote of 320 to 218.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

(This is not a personal endorsement, just an observation).

I would hold judgment until after the debates. I don't think most people that are undecided have started paying attention yet. There is some fluidity left out there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters (Post 316891)

I would hold judgment until after the debates. I don't think most people that are undecided have started paying attention yet. There is some fluidity left out there.

!!!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archaea (Post 316900)

Gore: It was the altitude!

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...jonah-goldberg

LOL.

These two candidates certainly looked like one has been through twenty debates over the past year, while it was the other's first in four years. Still, you would expect some preparation by the incumbent. It will be interesting to see Fact Check.org's final analysis of who more eloquently lied to 314 million people (or its more commonly known heading, "who won the debate").

Obama has never been a good debater. But now that he has no record to run on...

UPDATE

Now with only 4 weeks left, Obama's probability has dipped to 78.4%, from last Monday's 85.1%. The electoral forecast now sits at 308 to 230, down from 320 to 218.

Interestingly, last Thursday evening (24 hours after the first debate), Obama's probability had risen to over 86%, but sunk 8 points over the weekend. Apparently Romney's spin on the unemployment numbers and his 47% apology carried more weight than the debate.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

UPDATE

With 3 weeks left, Obama's probability of winning has dropped to 66.0%, down from 78.4% last week. The current electoral forecast is 289 Obama, 249 Romney.

Also, of the 9 swing states that pundits say will decide the election, 5 shifted their outlooks rightward over the past week:
Colorado: previously was lean Obama, now is a tossup
Florida: previously was lean Obama, now is lean Romney
New Hampshire: previously was likely Obama, now is lean Obama
North Carolina: previously was tossup, now is lean Romney
Virginia: previously was lean Obama, now is a tossup

The 4 swing states that haven't budged:
Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio still lean Obama, while Wisconsin is likely Obama.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

this stuff from Nate Silver, from what I heard, leans so far to the left that it is ridiculous.

It is still too early to know what is going to happen, with two debates to go.

Certainly the wind is blowing in Romney's favor.