I know people like BYU71 think there will be no recession
 

much less a more significant dowturn, but everything I see points to bad, bad, bad.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/op...54b&ei=5087%0A

Weak dollar is killing us. Absolutely killing us. It is driving up the price of oil. Our lack of savings--read the article.

Imagine if we have a bad crop cycle next year, due to global warming, or el nino, or just plain bad luck.

Absolutely disaster. Imagine if avian flu jumps. Worldwide economic collapse as goods don't travel from the West to the East.

I hope BYU71 is right, but man, you would be a fool not to plan for a significant downturn coming up in the near future.

But I know most of you consider me an idiot, a chicken little. That's fine. I'll do what I think is right.

It seems a perfect storm is gathering. Weak dollar, high oil prices, drought in the west, housing fiasco and much more. I think there are going to be lots of opportunities for service over the next few years. Our generation has never been able to relate to those Sunday school stories in the lesson manuals about helping the poor because we've never seen that kind of poor. I think that may change. I think we are about to witness the disappearance of the lower middle class.

Imagine what the next few years could look like in our wards as far as fast offerings go. Imagine families who have never needed help needing help and in moderate numbers. Who's going to be able to increase the fast offerings at that point? I'm with you Waters. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm preparing for some lean years.

I don't think I have said there isn't going to be a recession. Actually everything points toward things getting pretty nasty. I do believe this is an oil bubble, but as I have said many times before, bubbles can go well beyond the price where a bubble is. The internet bubble and real estate bubble are the last two that come to mind.

The only reason I have some optimism left is because everyone is so dang negative and yet the economy hasn't dipped into a recession (definition of recession) yet. I don't know why we haven't yet.