If you are the Fiesta Bowl . . .
 

the way I see it, the BCS landscape (barring major carnage*) shaping up as below:

*i'd say unprecedented carnage, but there's plenty of precedent. Oklahoma could lose to Oklahoma State, the Big 12 South champ could lose to Missouri, Alabama could lose to Auburn, etc. And, of course, I'm assuming that Oregon State loses a game -- probably to Oregon or Cal)

NCG: Big 12 winner v. SEC winner
--for the Fiesta, it doesn't matter which teams these are: the Sugar will take the SEC #2, and the Fiesta will almost certainly pick the Big 12 #2, which is likely to be Texas, almost any way you slice it)

Rose: USC** v. Penn State***
--**for the Fiesta this does matter: if Oregon State wins out, then the Fiesta takes USC v. Texas in a heartbeat. End of story.
--*** if Penn State loses to Michigan State, I do not think the Fiesta Bowl would take an imploding PSU, even with JoePa

Fiesta: Big 12 #2 v. [first pick]

Sugar: SEC #2 v. [second pick]

Orange: nincompoop ACC Champ v. [last pick]

So, you're the Fiesta and you get the first selection (once the NCG game subs are slotted in). Assuming the above, including that USC goes to the Rose, who do you pick? Your menu is (in no particular order):
1. Utah
2. Boise State
3. Ball State
4. Ohio State
5. Big East Champ

What if Utah loses to BYU? (same menu as above + BYU)
1. Utah
2. Boise State
3. Ball State
4. Ohio State
5. Big East Champ
6. BYU

Bear in mind, while the BCS MUST take the highest ranked non-AQ school (=Boise if Utah loses), the Fiesta can select ANY team in the top 14 of the standings (but may not choose a team if its conference already has 2 BCS teams selected). That is, the Fiesta will choose its best matchup, even if that means screwing the Orange Bowl -- just like the Fiesta got stuck with Pitt in 2004.

Personally, I think that the choice is Utah for sure, in the first situation and Ohio State or BYU in the second (bolded). If Utah loses, Boise is playing in the Orange Bowl.

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying at the end there, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say there is a 0% chance any of the BCS bowls pass up the second place Big 10 team (which would be Ohio St. or Penn St.) to pick a second non-BCS school.

Is that what you're saying?

I think they should change the rules so that conferences aren't limited to just two teams. I can't believe a top five team is going to be left out of the bowl games. The BCS is no fair!!!

The BCS is a sham! UNLV beat Arizona State!

And Baylor beat Wazzu! The Pac-10 should forfeit their BCS spot this year. It's only fair.

on a neutral field, wyoming would beat Alabama.

What I'm ASKING is who you would take if you were the Fiesta Bowl -- and it sounds like you'd take Penn State or Ohio State (or Michigan State) if they are available.

As to whether the Fiesta Bowl would select a team OTHER THAN Ohio State if that is their only Big 10 option, see here:

From Fiutak at http://cfn.scout.com/2/809974.htmlI think that the Fiesta Bowl is unlikely to choose Boise State --and that the Orange Bowl will get Boise State vs. the ACC Champ.

At least one expert thinks that BYU-to-Fiesta is possible. If (1) BYU beats Utah (2) Ohio State loses to Illinois or Michigan AND (3) Penn State beats Michigan State, it may even be likely.

Ohio State has gone to and won 3 of the last 6 Fiesta Bowls (and gone to the NCG two of the other years). So, the Fiesta Bowl has definitely built strong ties there. However, I'm rooting aganist Ohio State and Michigan State from here out.

This is all assuming BYU climbs into the top 14 if they win out.

Still, I am with you in rooting against the Ohio State & Michigan State. I'm also rooting against the highest-ranked ACC & Big East teams, as a rule.