Who does McCain pick?
 

He is in a tough spot with his VP choice. McCain has two routes he can follow:

1. Go with his heart (which leads to a pick like Lieberman, Ridge or Giuliani, none of which make any sense politically); or
2. Go with what the political advisors tell him (which leads to a pick like Romney, Hutchinson, or Huckabee).

What will McCain do? Historically, he seems to go with his heart in these kind of situations, but the new McCain is a pansy who appears willing to sell his soul to get the nomination.

Romney makes a lot of sense. He could help with Michigan, maybe gives McCain a bit of a boost in Colorado, helps in Nevada, and shores up Arizona (which should go McCain anyways, but a bigger margin would look nice). On the downside, McCain's not so smart decision to run ads showing Biden's comments about Obama will really come back to bite him if he picks Romney. McCain basically said that Romney was retarded and in no way qualified to be president of the US (which should matter, given McCain's advanced age and the intense pressures of the job). Also, Romney presumably understands economics, which is a plus, but he was a venture capitalist, and VCs make money in large part by tearing companies apart and selling them piece by piece, including to foreign interests- anything to make a profit. That could hurt.

Hutchinson (imo) would be a strong pick, but I think many Republicans would have a hard time voting for a ticket with a woman on it, and people don't know her very well. I don't think McCain picks her.

Ridge gets McCain nothing, other than they are good friends, and loses him the base. It would be a truly disastrous pick.

Lieberman would be amusing to watch. He agrees with McCain on the war, but what happens when he sits down to debate Biden and agrees with almost everything else Biden says? Can McCain really work with that? Are Republicans ok with setting up Lieberman to be the next presumptive president of the US? Do two old guys who have been in DC for a long time send the message or the image that America is looking for right now? The base would revolt, and, in an ironic twist of fate, the pro-lifers would kill someone over it.

Giulian has the same problems as Lieberman and Ridge. Disastrous pick, and showed he can't run much of a campaign at this level. But, he is very close with McCain.

Wildcard: Petraeus and Powell. These two picks would, by far, be the strongest picks McCain could go with, but I don't think either are interested at all, and Powell is reportedly backing Obama. Petraeus is well-known and well-respected by both sides as a military mind, but nobody knows anything about his politics. He could turn out to be awful as a candidate, ala Wesley Clark, and he has cozied up to Bush far more than people might like (he kind of had to, given his position).

I think another part of the problem out there is that many people think McCain is pro-choice (including the female voter McCain trotted out for his press conference who previously voted for Hillary but is now a McCain supporter. Only problem was that she thought McCain was pro-choice, and even noted that he would select only pro-choice justices to the Court. She was corrected by the media and seemed a lot less enthusiastic in her support! Hilarious). McCain has quietly been assuring the evangelicals that he is staunchly pro-life (he is) while trying not to make it a high profile issue (knowing that it would hurt him with many independents he is courting). A pick of someone like Lieberman, Ridge or Giuliani makes abortion once again a front and center issue and forces McCain to discuss it head on, alienating at least some of his support group. He is better off if that issue is kept more quiet, as it would be if he went with the traditional conservative pick for VP.

What are your guesses?

I think Hutchinson would be lackluster--I don't think she is presidential material.

It doesn't matter who he picks, really.

Romney brings money, helps with corporate republicans, brings some energy maybe. I don't know.

It's all crappy.

VPs are not that important, maybe a percentage point in one direction or another.

Romney seems to bring the most this time.

I'm trying not to be biased and I'm voting for Bob Barr anyway, but I think McCain's best choice is Romney. He's the best fundraiser and is popular in several key states McCain needs. Screw the south. They aren't suddenly going to vote for a liberal black democrat just because some of them don't like Mormons. The mess the GOP is in right now can be directly attributed to letting the southern social conservatives take over the party. Most of them are not economically conservative and are only Republicans because of abortion and school prayer. Catering to them again would be the wrong thing for McCain to do. Pawlenty is a safe choice that wouldn't offend anyone but McCain better be able to win it on his own if he picks him. He'll be totally irrelevant.

"Basically" = "I'm misquoting him"

Any evidence Romney did this?

Wrong. Sarah Palin is a dark horse favorite, and a better pick than Hutchinson.

Not a chance in the world.

"Quietly" = "including it in his stump speech"

I'm hoping for Huckabee. I can't help myself, I just like the guy. It seems like he's always moments away from pulling out a guitar and belting out a rendition of "Jimmy Crack Corn" or some other folksy southern song. Always with a big smile on his face and a little mischievous twinkle in his eye.

for all the talk of how much help Romney will be, Mitt certainly did not do very well in the primaries. His cash couldnt buy him Iowa.

Mitt brings baggage. A large chunk of whatever money he brings with him will be spent on dispelling the baggage....a distraction that could hurt the ticket.

I personally think that it doesnt matter who the VP is......Quayle, Cheney, Al Gore........who cares. Candidates are elected based in large part on their own likeability, not their VP.

does Romney have more baggage than Biden?

there were two pieces in Slate today about Biden's propensity to plagiarize, and how it still matters today.

Romney's cash doesn't have to get him elected, it must get McCain elected.

He has abilities and networks in key states, Nevada, Colorado, Montana, Michigan, as well as Florida and a few others. I agree it doesn't matter much but he brings the most to the table of any of the options. It probably isn't enough but the failure of the Republican Party will not be Romney's but a lack of identity for the party. If we can get a house cleaning and back on our feet to attack the Dems where it counts, then this could be a watershed event. Otherwise, it could be like Stalin marching through the Republics, the entrenchment of a dictator nobody likes but against nothing can be done.

McCain's VP matters more because he's so doggon old. Also, he could pick a woman which would be dramatic. I'm for that governor of Alaska.