Ball State
 

Ball St. is struggling with a crappy Miami Ohio team. Talk about overrated.

Ball State still has to play two 8 win teams in Western and Central Michigan, they wont go undefeated.

Junkie, this is not a troll. I'm interested in knowing because I respect your opinion. Who will win Utah-BYU? I'm scared of BYU.

My guess is that Utah would win more often than it would lose to BYU given its superior defense and at least equal coaching abilities. But BYU has a slugger's chance because it can move the ball. If Utah turns it over a few times, then BYU's chances increase significantly.

I have not had to time to full disect the matchups but off the top of my head a few things:

1. Utah has a very good defense, in fact arguably the best D BYU has seen this year. However I dont think they will be as effective as TCU for a few reasons. First I dont think they have the speed of TCU, Utah has a fast D, but what historically has given BYU problems are rush ends. Misi and Kruger are not rush ends, they are power guys and BYU does ok against those type of ends.

2. Defensive tackle position, BYU will have the best line Utah has faced all year, they are huge in the middle with 3 sure fire NFL draft picks in Feinga, Reynolds and Bright. I am interested to see how Newman holds at the point of attack, so far this season he has done well but I feel like BYUs inside line play is at a different level.

3. I expect Utah to put Sean Smith on Collie and roll a safety over the top on every play. I also expect them to put Sylvester on Pitta and roll the other safety over the top. That leaves Mccain one on one vs Reed and George or Harvey one on one vs linebackers. I like those matchups for BYU.

4. BYU had the ball inside TCUs 35 yard line 7 times. They turned it over in the redzone 3 times. I see Utah forcing some turnovers but nothing like that. I can see 28-31 points out of the cougar offense.

5. Utah on offense has not been stellar, however they have a ton of weapons and speed. This will be very tough for BYU to handle. Castell matched up in the slot against Tafuna or a linebacker is going to be a nightmare for BYU. Howard on the outside against Brown and Reed, is trouble for BYU.

6. The direct snap has killed BYU all year and Utah probably runs it as good as anyone BYU has faced, so I expect Asiata to have success. I think Utah will rush for over 100 yards in the game.

7. BJ is the x-factor in my opinion if he can stay calm in the pocket, make the right reads and nickel and dime his way down the field, Utah will score plenty of points to win. I dont feel like Utah is a big play offense at least not what they have shown so far this year. One thing BYU has done well this year on D is limit the big plays, they cant get off the field on 3rd down but they do a decent job of limiting big plays. They will make Utah and BJ go on 11,12,13 play drives to score.

8. With all that being said I think by playing field position, forcing BJ to drive the length of the field in small chunks, and not giving up the big play. BYU can win this game. Utah is going to get their points that is for sure, but I think BYU can win in a shootout. My prediction is 35-31 BYU.

If the game is a blowout it will definitely be going Utahs way. If it is low scoring the edge goes to Utah as well, and if it comes down to someone needing to make one play to win, I think the edge also goes to Utah, I love Max but BJ has proven he is a gamer. I think we are in for one hell of a game.

It is essentially Utahs great defense against BYUs great offense, and Utahs efficient offense vs BYUs inconsistent defense. Something has to give.

Excellent analysis, and scary. But I think you tipped your hand about what you really think in the last paragraph. I think ten out of ten knowledgeable. people presented with that last brief summary assessment would say Utah is better.

Which is more likely to sputter an unsteady defense or an unsteady offense? In this case, most of the time I would bet against the offense.

Right now Utah is better. They have the better defense, they have a better running game, and they have motivation from two straight close losses, and they have home field advantage. Plus, they're playing for a BCS game. Right now most things point to Utah. I still think it will be a tight game but if I was forced to bet, it would that Utah would win.

Has Unga slowed down?

The blocking schemes are not working as well, Unga is making some bad cuts and is playing with a stinger.