Rethinking Conference Expansion
 

I wrote this on Utefans in November of 2005 but I would be interested to here what people here think.

Maybe its time we rethink conference expansion to 12 team. Before you write me off as an idiot and hit the “return to message board” link just hang with me for a moment as I explain my reasoning. Ok the MWC new contract with the CSTV is 7 years at 77 million. So that equals 11 million a year and ~$1.2 million per year per school. If for argument we added Boise St. Hawaii and Fresno St. the payouts would be $916,000 per year per school. This equates to a $305,000 difference per school per year. The one benefit we have is that we would get a championship game to offset some of the changes and the 4 conference teams that played at Hawaii would each get an extra game. I imagine the playing at Hawaii would be nullified with having to send minor sports there.

The championship games for the ACC, Big 12 and SEC garner around 12-15 million per year. I am certainly not saying that a MWC championship game would garner anywhere near 12-15 million but the break even point for conference would $3.7 million. So a championship game would only have to garner $3.7 million to break even.

Ok now I will give you what I feel would be the most important part of having 12 teams and that is the increase chance that our conference would have to go to a BCS game. According to the new agreement anytime a non BCS league team is in the top 12 it goes to a BCS game. So here is a table of what I think our chances of going to a BCS game are:

Years Payout %attending Exp Payment Increased chance Expected Payout
1 15,000,000 40% 6,000,000 11.40% 51.40% 7,710,201
2 15,000,000 35% 5,250,000 11.40% 46.40% 6,960,201
3 15,000,000 8% 1,200,000 5.70% 13.70% 2,055,101
4 15,000,000 2% 300,000 0.00% 2.00% 300,000
5 15,000,000 0.5% 75,000 0.00% 0.50% 75,000
6 15,000,000 0.01% 1,500 0.00% 0.01% 1,500
7 15,000,000 0.00001% 2 0.00% 0.00% 2

Total 12,826,502 Total 17,102,004

Expected Payout Per team over 7 years
9 Teams 12 Teams
$1,425,167 $1,425,167

Basically, what I am saying it that if we have 9 teams our leagues chances of going to a BCS bowl once in a 7 year period is 40% twice 35% and so on. To Break even the12 team league would have to increase our chance at going 11.4% etc…

I am not saying it should be a done deal for expansion it’s just maybe during the spring this should definitely be revisited.

This doesn't even factor in the benefits of the NCAA tourney in BBAll. If nevada, Fresno or Boise st produce one more bid in the Tourney each year then its more than pays for their inclusion.

Football championship game would be the only additional revenue type we don't have now. Payout on that after expenses would be minimal after share with 12 teams--probably <$100K per team.

Everything else: TV revenue (largest contributor), NCAA basketball tourney money (next largest contributor), and bowl profit (remember it's profit not revenue which is very small), and potential BCS money you have to evaluate in this way...

Would the addition of three new teams increase the pie by 33% in all these areas?

Would our TV contract increase 33%?
Would our NCAA basketball tourney money increase 33%? i.e. if we get 2 teams in now, would we now get 2.67 teams in every year?
Would our bowl profit increase 33%? If we now get four bowl games, would we then get 5.33 bowl games?
Would chances at getting BCS increase 33%? If we make BCS once every 8 years now, would we improve chances to once every 6 years?

I think the answers to most of those questions are probably no. But that's how you have to look at it.