http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews
I have been saying for a long time that before we withdraw from Iraq, we ought to have a serious conversation about that would look like and what the ramifications would be. It looks like the military has been thinking about exactly this. VERY interesting read.
I haven't fully absorbed it but I find the idea of withdrawing to Kuwait and what would likely be the new Kurdistan an interesting idea. The concern then is that the Iranians and Saudis then fight a proxy war in the remaining area as the Sunnis and Shiites duke it out. Since they seem to want to mostly kill each other that might not be bad. The down sides are that we lose face for welching on our committments to the current Iraqi government with far, far reaching implications and also that one of the new states or both become pre-invasion Afghanistan redux in terms of Al Queda.
No matter what we do, someone will say that they said so all along and some else will say that the outcome was predictable. As we look into our crystal balls to figure out what will occur (and it is very murky at this point) we ought to do it with some sense of self consciousness in light of the fact that everything that has gone wrong to date should have been "obvious." Nothing here is obvious though with the benefit of hindsight someone invariably claims that it is and was.