Quote:
Originally Posted by hyrum
Valuations of common stocks (e.g. price to earnings) relative to US Bonds, real estate and commodities are at a near record low. Those who think the housing debacle will cause the stock market to sink are not considering that. While the economy might go into recession causing trouble in the financial services areas (mortgage arena, most obviously) there are categories of common stocks that are relatively recession proof, and some international economies are doing quite well. Real estate is not as volatile as the stock market but that may forestall a recovery because it takes a LONG time to resolve valuation problems, some people are going to just sit on their property for a long time refusing to take a loss, but may eventually capitulate, creating a drawn-out period with little or no cap gains in those markets that have been most overpriced. People who want to dip their toe in a declining market might do well to study Japanese real estate prices in the 90s.
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This is by far the best post from Hyrum I've read on this site.