Also, wouldn't a Bayesian approach require that we examine the prophets' past history and accuracy?
(of course, most of us do this. We look at things like blacks and the priesthood, men on Mars, etc. and use this in our determination).
And is it accurate to consider all prophets as emanating from the same base? Or put another way, each prophet has his own level of accuracy and ability, which is hard to determine when he does not actually provide new predictions or statements.
In other words we are able to tell less about a prophet who says "be nice" versus a prophet who says if you are white and you marry a black person, you are going to hell.
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