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PaloAltoCougar · 11-01-2008, 06:45 PM

I'm curious what others are sensing here on the front. A few weeks ago, I was fairly certain Prop. 8 would fail. I now regard it as at least a toss-up and, if anything, more likely to pass. I have no scientific basis for that. But the polls show the race tightening and I think the pro-8 cause will be helped by the fact that (i) older voters tend to be more likely to vote than younger voters, (ii) the Bradley effect is probably more applicable to this issue than to race, and I think people are more likely to secretly vote yes while saying no publicly, than the other way around, and (iii) I'm really impressed with how well-organized the get-out-the-vote for Yes has been.

I'm curious what other Golden Staters are sensing in their areas. Tuesday night is going to be fascinating.

11-01-2008, 06:45 PM	#1
PaloAltoCougar Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 580	Attention Californians: Your expectations re the Prop 8 Outcome I'm curious what others are sensing here on the front. A few weeks ago, I was fairly certain Prop. 8 would fail. I now regard it as at least a toss-up and, if anything, more likely to pass. I have no scientific basis for that. But the polls show the race tightening and I think the pro-8 cause will be helped by the fact that (i) older voters tend to be more likely to vote than younger voters, (ii) the Bradley effect is probably more applicable to this issue than to race, and I think people are more likely to secretly vote yes while saying no publicly, than the other way around, and (iii) I'm really impressed with how well-organized the get-out-the-vote for Yes has been. I'm curious what other Golden Staters are sensing in their areas. Tuesday night is going to be fascinating.