Quote:
Originally Posted by pelagius
You're right ... but I must continue my one person quest to correct cognitive biases in decision making under uncertainty. Its a underappreciated quest.
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If you stating that Bayes rule shows if somebody played 100s of times, how many times somebody might prevail, and that's why Vegas oddsmakers stick to a formula which doesn't reflect who actually won on any given date, I understand your point.
Some of those predictions look odd though.