Speaking only of sexual sins here:
In my experiences with this (from the church's side, not my own), ExCommunication vs. disfellowshipment is generally a function of the following:
1. Member's status (endowed, melch. priesthood, leadership position, Returned Missionary, etc.). Where Much is given much is required. A temple-married returned missionary who has been an EQP for example will be dealt with much more harshly than say an 18 year old who just got the Melch. Priesthood.
2. Severity of the offense and the attitude of the member.
3. I hate to add this one but the SP/Bishop's disposition. Some are much more compassionate and others are more "mulla-ish".
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