I think it is pretty accurate, which can be seen by SU's claim that it must have been dressed up (who would dress up something to be wrong?). The only that didn't fairly happen is that it didn't turn into a world war, although that claim is sort of ambiguous, and it could still be seen as having come to pass. Otherwsie, it looks pretty good, I think.
I think there is some historical context to suggest that SO Carolina was seen by many as the likley place of rebellion, and in fact they had threatened it before 1860. Even so, it is a pretty good call on his part.
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Sorry for th e tpyos.
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