Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelBlue
About Noriel Roubini, an economics professor at NYU. This article was written in August, and reading it now sends a few chills up my spine. I'd be curious to know what Pelagius thinks of Roubini. Did he just get lucky in the sense that a clock is always right twice a day? Or is he spot on? I'd assume it's somewhere in between.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/ma...ewanted=1&_r=1
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Predicting a recession is a pretty good bet usually. If you made the following statement you would be right for most of US history: I predict a recession within the next four to five years. I believe Roubini, like Krugman, has over predicted recessions (but I admittedly don't know much about Roubini so I could be wrong).
Still he got the essential mechanism right so you have to give him credit for that. However, even in 2006 there was plenty of talk of a housing bubble among economists. If one was inclined to make gloomy predictions a housing market crash made the most sense. Very few economists would have predicted the severity of the collapse (its without historical precedent), but lots of economist thought there was a housing bubble. Ownership costs/ rent ratios were at previously unseen levels.