10-15-2008, 07:51 PM | #1 |
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How much would a win against TCU help
So I just wanted to gauge how much a win against TCU would help in the computer models. This isn't perfect, but I did the following: I simulated next week using the vegas spreads to determine expected margin of victory and expected win or loss. I then computed a W/L based only computer model (its a bit different than Sagarin's ELO-Chess or Massey's W/L based models but overal quite similar).
Here is the top 50 as of last week's results. BYU is 29th in this model: Code:
NCAA Football: 2008 Computer Rating Model: W/L Only Division 1A and 1AA games used Rank Team Rating W L 1 Alabama 3.623 5 0 2 Texas 3.582 6 0 3 Virginia Tech 3.496 4 1 4 Utah 3.479 7 0 5 Southern Cal 3.460 4 1 6 Wake Forest 3.319 4 1 7 North Carolina 3.312 5 1 8 Oklahoma St 3.305 6 0 9 Georgia 3.295 5 1 10 Penn State 3.286 7 0 11 Texas Tech 3.280 6 0 12 Connecticut 3.264 5 1 13 Florida 3.256 5 1 14 Michigan St 3.241 6 1 15 Oklahoma 3.238 5 1 16 South Florida 3.194 5 1 17 Duke 3.179 3 2 18 Ohio State 3.179 6 1 19 California 3.172 4 1 20 Northwestern 3.171 5 1 21 Pittsburgh 3.161 4 1 22 Georgia Tech 3.135 5 1 23 Ball St 3.113 6 0 24 Kansas 3.105 5 1 25 Vanderbilt 3.104 5 1 26 Boise St 3.093 5 0 27 TCU 3.090 6 1 28 Missouri 3.072 5 1 29 Brigham Young 3.057 6 0 30 Minnesota 3.022 6 1 31 Tulsa 3.015 6 0 32 Navy 3.010 4 2 33 South Carolina 2.986 5 2 34 James Madison 2.984 6 1 35 LSU 2.971 4 1 36 Oregon St 2.946 3 3 37 Virginia 2.924 3 3 38 Notre Dame 2.906 4 2 39 Nebraska 2.896 3 3 40 Florida St 2.889 4 1 41 Cincinnati 2.881 5 1 42 Stanford 2.801 4 3 43 Western Michigan 2.795 6 1 44 Oregon 2.793 5 2 45 Weber St 2.791 3 2 46 Air Force 2.779 4 2 47 Hawai`i 2.763 3 3 48 Arkansas 2.751 3 3 49 Iowa 2.746 4 3 50 Montana 2.741 4 1 Now the results after using the Vegas spreads to determine a win or loss for this week's upcoming games. BYU jumps to 14th. So a 15 ranking jump. If BYU wins it should really help in the W/L based models. Code:
NCAA Football: 2008 Computer Rating Model: W/L with Simulation Only Division 1A and 1AA games used Rank Team Rating W L 1 Texas 3.654 7 0 2 Alabama 3.642 6 0 3 Utah 3.479 8 0 4 Georgia 3.436 6 1 5 North Carolina 3.387 6 1 6 Southern Cal 3.381 5 1 7 Oklahoma St 3.357 7 0 8 Oklahoma 3.349 6 1 9 Pittsburgh 3.347 5 1 10 Florida 3.345 5 1 11 Ohio State 3.333 7 1 12 Wake Forest 3.308 5 1 13 Penn State 3.301 8 0 14 Brigham Young 3.299 7 0 15 Virginia Tech 3.263 4 2 16 Texas Tech 3.247 7 0 17 Boise St 3.239 6 0 18 South Florida 3.237 6 1 19 Georgia Tech 3.161 6 1 20 LSU 3.155 5 1 21 Northwestern 3.129 6 1 22 Ball St 3.109 6 0 23 Minnesota 3.073 6 1 24 Tulsa 3.071 7 0 25 Missouri 3.060 5 2 26 Michigan St 3.042 6 2 27 Vanderbilt 3.018 5 2 28 Cincinnati 3.015 5 1 29 Kansas 3.005 5 2 30 Boston College 2.968 5 1 31 TCU 2.964 6 2 32 South Carolina 2.931 5 3 33 Oregon St 2.931 4 3 34 Navy 2.919 4 3 35 Connecticut 2.914 5 2 36 James Madison 2.910 6 1 37 Air Force 2.894 5 2 38 Oregon 2.883 5 2 39 Notre Dame 2.881 4 2 40 Nebraska 2.869 4 3 41 California 2.867 4 2 42 Duke 2.853 3 3 43 Central Michigan 2.816 5 2 44 Kentucky 2.791 4 2 45 West Virginia 2.780 4 2 46 San José St 2.776 5 2 47 Weber St 2.771 3 2 48 Colorado 2.766 4 3 49 Montana 2.747 4 1 50 Western Michigan 2.717 6 2 |
10-15-2008, 08:04 PM | #2 | |
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Quote:
Thanks. I plugged in just BYU and Utah's games in my model, and it didn't make that much of an effect but still better. BYU up about 5 spots and Utah down one. |
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10-15-2008, 08:23 PM | #3 |
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Is that for just a W/L based ranking or your ranking that takes into account MOV with dimminishing reward?
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10-15-2008, 08:27 PM | #4 |
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I also did it for a raw MOV model (Sagarin predictor). The expected margin of victory is only 2 so BYU only gets a 1 ranking bump. I then recomputed the models ranking for various possible margins of victory. Here is expected rankings as a function of MOV in the TCU game
Last edited by pelagius; 10-15-2008 at 08:33 PM. |
10-15-2008, 08:29 PM | #5 |
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10-15-2008, 08:30 PM | #6 |
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10-15-2008, 08:48 PM | #7 |
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