Does Cali really think the Wright thing isn't an issue for voters?

[Oxcoug]

If so, just give me one second to be amused................ OK.

Three recent and very telling anecdotes:

Yesterday I was in a meeting with with the editor and publisher of a major left center publication (i.e. household name). The banter strayed, as it will to election talk. The Publisher (who has facilitated some of the most damaging critiques of the Bush admin) described her faith in Obama as "shaken." I asked "what made that happen?" She said "two degrees is not enough distance from Louis Farrakhan, and twenty years in a hothouse for religious and racial bigotry shows some incredibly poor judgment" and "he's lost his glow - he's been unmasked as another cynical politician."

Second - I have recently dated a girl who's father is an agnostic New York Jew who has voted Democratic since he cast his first vote for McGovern. He took me out to dinner a month ago and confided that he might be voting for a Republican for the first time in his life specifically because of the Wright episode.

Third - one of my colleagues in Berkeley who had been a diehard for Obama recently jumped ship and signed up as a Clinton volunteer.

Here's the hint - some of the problems stemming from Wright might not show up in the polls you're looking at right now. But the number of retired Jewish voters lost through a second degree association with Farrakhan will almost certainly cost Obama a shot at Florida. And that's not even getting to his resulting problems with working class white guys in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It may not lose him the election - but it will help make it far closer than it ought to be this year.

[MikeWaters]

Yes, it has been widely proclaimed in the media, that American Jews are organizing against Obama.

No shocker there. He hasn't shown his bona fides that he is a zionist.

[Oxcoug]

to have better sense than to spend twenty years hanging out under the influence of a close friend and admirer of Louis Farrakhan?

And, BTW, I don't think the working class whities in the Midwest - who are also a problem for Obama - are so concerned with his Zionist bonafides.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

Yes, it has been widely proclaimed in the media, that American Jews are organizing against Obama.

No shocker there. He hasn't shown his bona fides that he is a zionist.

If the Democrat candidate gets less than 70% percent of the Jewish vote, it will indeed be a shocker.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Oxcoug

If so, just give me one second to be amused................ OK.

Three recent and very telling anecdotes:

Yesterday I was in a meeting with with the editor and publisher of a major left center publication (i.e. household name). The banter strayed, as it will to election talk. The Publisher (who has facilitated some of the most damaging critiques of the Bush admin) described her faith in Obama as "shaken." I asked "what made that happen?" She said "two degrees is not enough distance from Louis Farrakhan, and twenty years in a hothouse for religious and racial bigotry shows some incredibly poor judgment" and "he's lost his glow - he's been unmasked as another cynical politician."

Second - I have recently dated a girl who's father is an agnostic New York Jew who has voted Democratic since he cast his first vote for McGovern. He took me out to dinner a month ago and confided that he might be voting for a Republican for the first time in his life specifically because of the Wright episode.

Third - one of my colleagues in Berkeley who had been a diehard for Obama recently jumped ship and signed up as a Clinton volunteer.

Here's the hint - some of the problems stemming from Wright might not show up in the polls you're looking at right now. But the number of retired Jewish voters lost through a second degree association with Farrakhan will almost certainly cost Obama a shot at Florida. And that's not even getting to his resulting problems with working class white guys in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It may not lose him the election - but it will help make it far closer than it ought to be this year.

You must be right. The polls which uniformly indicate that the Wright fiasco had no effect on Obama's standing against McCain or Clinton within 2 weeks of Wright's initial appearance and his reemergence must be wrong. They clearly should have consulted you for anecdotal evidence ahead of time. A sample of 3 people that ultraconservative Oxcoug hangs out with probably would have been more representative.

In another surprising story, Oxcoug reports that 100% of Americans (based on anecdotal evidence) believe the war in Iraq to be a smashing success.

[Oxcoug]

My anecdotes - which I fronted as anecdotes and know very well do not constitute any meaningful sample - are mere reference points.

But national polling has, in fact, indicated an erosion of support among Independents for Obama.

[Oxcoug]

When the publisher of a major magazine who was madly in love with you one month earlier says her faith in you is "shaken" you have a more significant indicator of opinion than if the operator of a local ice cream shop changes her mind.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Oxcoug

When the publisher of a major magazine who was madly in love with you one month earlier says her faith in you is "shaken" you have a more significant indicator of opinion than if the operator of a local ice cream shop changes her mind.

Are you for real? Talk about elitist. Are you actually of the opinion that if a major magazine publisher finds something relevant, it must be more representative of the public at large than if a local ice cream shop owner changes her mind? What possible evidence do you have to support such a silly claim?

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Oxcoug

My anecdotes - which I fronted as anecdotes and know very well do not constitute any meaningful sample - are mere reference points.

But national polling has, in fact, indicated an erosion of support among Independents for Obama.

Which polling are you citing? Here is a graph showing polling from Gallop since mid-March (when Wright first became an issue) of independents in a general election matchup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107272/Ob...dent-Vote.aspx

Note that Obama has actually gone up one point since polling began and that it has never appreciably dipped (a drop from 43-41 was the biggest drop, which is statistically insignificant as inside the margin of error).

But let me guess, you know someone who is REALLY important whose opinion changed, and the opinion of that REALLY important person clearly shows that everyone else is changing their mind too.

At least pretend to take a logical approach to this.

[Oxcoug]

Granted, it's from the beginning of the month - but it shows that Obama's standing was, in fact, damaged.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/us...oll.html?fta=y

He moved from an aura of untouchable inevitability - to one of vulnerability. Not all shifts are instantly reflected as changed votes. The fact is that there are now doubts about Obama in circulation - defensible, grounded doubts about his judgment.

Also, national polling doesn't always tell the critical story. Watch - Obama will lose Florida. When he does it will turn out that a higher percentage of Jewish Democrats voted against him than ever have voted against a Democratic Presidential candidate. Then pay attention to working class whites in battlegrounds like Ohio and Michigan.