If you are the Fiesta Bowl . . .

[Bruincoug]

the way I see it, the BCS landscape (barring major carnage*) shaping up as below:

*i'd say unprecedented carnage, but there's plenty of precedent. Oklahoma could lose to Oklahoma State, the Big 12 South champ could lose to Missouri, Alabama could lose to Auburn, etc. And, of course, I'm assuming that Oregon State loses a game -- probably to Oregon or Cal)

NCG: Big 12 winner v. SEC winner
--for the Fiesta, it doesn't matter which teams these are: the Sugar will take the SEC #2, and the Fiesta will almost certainly pick the Big 12 #2, which is likely to be Texas, almost any way you slice it)

Rose: USC** v. Penn State***
--**for the Fiesta this does matter: if Oregon State wins out, then the Fiesta takes USC v. Texas in a heartbeat. End of story.
--*** if Penn State loses to Michigan State, I do not think the Fiesta Bowl would take an imploding PSU, even with JoePa

Fiesta: Big 12 #2 v. [first pick]

Sugar: SEC #2 v. [second pick]

Orange: nincompoop ACC Champ v. [last pick]

So, you're the Fiesta and you get the first selection (once the NCG game subs are slotted in). Assuming the above, including that USC goes to the Rose, who do you pick? Your menu is (in no particular order):
1. Utah
2. Boise State
3. Ball State
4. Ohio State
5. Big East Champ

What if Utah loses to BYU? (same menu as above + BYU)
1. Utah
2. Boise State
3. Ball State
4. Ohio State
5. Big East Champ
6. BYU

Bear in mind, while the BCS MUST take the highest ranked non-AQ school (=Boise if Utah loses), the Fiesta can select ANY team in the top 14 of the standings (but may not choose a team if its conference already has 2 BCS teams selected). That is, the Fiesta will choose its best matchup, even if that means screwing the Orange Bowl -- just like the Fiesta got stuck with Pitt in 2004.

Personally, I think that the choice is Utah for sure, in the first situation and Ohio State or BYU in the second (bolded). If Utah loses, Boise is playing in the Orange Bowl.