07-21-2008, 08:07 PM | #11 |
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hey Pelagius, show us the link to the graphical representation again.
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07-21-2008, 08:08 PM | #12 |
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Possibly but I don't know what it means to call someone a prophet if I don't believe on average he has better spiritual judgment than me. There might be more conditional cases where the probability swings in your favor .. but the model wasn't trying to illustrate that idea.
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07-21-2008, 08:11 PM | #13 |
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Also, wouldn't a Bayesian approach require that we examine the prophets' past history and accuracy?
(of course, most of us do this. We look at things like blacks and the priesthood, men on Mars, etc. and use this in our determination). And is it accurate to consider all prophets as emanating from the same base? Or put another way, each prophet has his own level of accuracy and ability, which is hard to determine when he does not actually provide new predictions or statements. In other words we are able to tell less about a prophet who says "be nice" versus a prophet who says if you are white and you marry a black person, you are going to hell. |
07-21-2008, 08:12 PM | #14 | |
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Quote:
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07-21-2008, 08:17 PM | #15 | |
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If you were to phrase the question more specifically, such as "what percent of the time is the prophet correct on spiritual matters," I bet you get a response of 100% a majority of the time. If you ask "what percent of the time is the prophet correct when he speaks in General Conference," I also bet you hear 100% a majority of the time. Mormons may, in the back of their mind, believe that the prophet can sometimes state a personal opinion that isn't factual, but when pressed for examples most won't come up with any, and when asked if the prophet can lead the church astray, most will say "no." The church leaders themselves have stated many things that strongly suggest the prophet is infallible (and not just "more likely than the average human to get it right"). While your analysis may be correct for some, and even possibly for a majority on CG, I certainly don't think it is close to representative of the feelings of most active church members. |
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07-21-2008, 08:21 PM | #16 |
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Of course that's were the hypothetical 50% and 60% come from. They are the Bayesian unconditional priors ... Given a lot of data the posterior should not change very much so updating would only cause small changes.
Last edited by pelagius; 07-21-2008 at 08:23 PM. |
07-21-2008, 08:23 PM | #17 | |
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What are the relative odds of any given member, orthodox or not, disagreeing with a doctrine that has been repeated by multiple prophets over decades of church leadership?
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07-21-2008, 08:24 PM | #18 |
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There is a spiritual aspect to this that is missing in this discussion. I for one coudn't care less what % of the time the prophet is right/wrong. I believe that I will be blessed for following his counsel, regardless. And I would apply this to other leaders as well. Obedience brings blessings.
But then maybe I'm a mullah.
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07-21-2008, 08:26 PM | #19 | |
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That is, they might have more confidence that something unsettling from JS was true, while less certain that something TM said was true. |
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07-21-2008, 08:29 PM | #20 | |
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But in a lot of the most contentious or controversial cases, it is when a member is asked to obey a local church leader. For example, I believe the men that followed their leaders during the MMM, eventually came to deeply regret that decision. I don't think they felt blessed at all. So I have big-time problems with the idea that one should just obey and not consider whether it is wise to accept the counsel. |
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