This is great comedy....

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Adam

This is silly. Of course your odds of flipping a heads is only 50% each time you flip. But if you flip 26 times your odds of getting 22 heads is not 50%. We aren't talking about one flip here, we are talking about a continuation of flipping heads multiple times.

No, he has a point. We are talking about going one season undefeated. What happened the last two years does not matter. Other than motivation for the other teams.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I can't wait until we get to a BCS game this season and get blown out.

Come on, now! Think positive. Perhaps you'll get the coveted spot against Oklahoma.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Come on, now! Think positive. Perhaps you'll get the coveted spot against Oklahoma.

One could only hope.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Adam

This is silly. Of course your odds of flipping a heads is only 50% each time you flip. But if you flip 26 times your odds of getting 22 heads is not 50%. We aren't talking about one flip here, we are talking about a continuation of flipping heads multiple times.

The probability of BYU going undefeated in the MWC in 2008 is higher after going 16-0 the last two years than it would be if BYU went 10-6 or 12-4.

[Spaz]

Originally Posted by Adam

This is silly. Of course your odds of flipping a heads is only 50% each time you flip. But if you flip 26 times your odds of getting 22 heads is not 50%. We aren't talking about one flip here, we are talking about a continuation of flipping heads multiple times.

Again, misunderstanding of the way odds work. They HAVE NO MEMORY.


Yes, the odds of flipping a coin heads three times in a row is low (1/8, actually). The problem you're not seeing is this:

You've flipped the coin twice, and it's landed heads both times. You're about to flip the coin again, for the third time. What are the odds THAT coin-flip is going to land heads?

Exactly the same as it was every other time you flipped the coin: 1/2.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Spaz

Again, misunderstanding of the way odds work. They HAVE NO MEMORY.


Yes, the odds of flipping a coin heads three times in a row is low (1/8, actually). The problem you're not seeing is this:

You've flipped the coin twice, and it's landed heads both times. You're about to flip the coin again, for the third time. What are the odds THAT coin-flip is going to land heads?

Exactly the same as it was every other time you flipped the coin: 1/2.

There is some "memory" with football teams.

1. How good/bad you were last year
2. How many players you return
3. Changes in system, coaches, schedule

Even so, the fact that we went 16-0 the previous two MWC seasons does not serve as some probabilistic barrier IN AND OF ITSELF to us going 8-0 this year. Bayesian statistics, if anything, would say that going 8-0 is more likely this year than in either of the previous two years.

[Spaz]

In case anyone is having trouble understanding memorylessness in probability, here's a wiki with some more info on it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorylessness

[BYUTexan]

I'm on board too.

[Spaz]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

There is some "memory" with football teams.

1. How good/bad you were last year
2. How many players you return
3. Changes in system, coaches, schedule

Even so, the fact that we went 16-0 the previous two MWC seasons does not serve as some probabilistic barrier IN AND OF ITSELF to us going 8-0 this year. Bayesian statistics, if anything, would say that going 8-0 is more likely this year than in either of the previous two years.

Fair point. The issue I have is with people quoting the 'odds of going undefeated in conference three years in a row' as some sort of issue BYU will have to overcome this year.

It's certainly not a perfect comparison, to compare it to the odds of rolling a 6 on a die three times in a row, but it's useful in demonstrating the fallacy involved in that statement.

FWIW, all three of the items you pointed out seem to be favorable for BYU this year, with the possible exception of the toughest in-conference games being on the road this year.

[The Borg]

Originally Posted by Spaz

Fair point. The issue I have is with people quoting the 'odds of going undefeated in conference three years in a row' as some sort of issue BYU will have to overcome this year.

It's certainly not a perfect comparison, to compare it to the odds of rolling a 6 on a die three times in a row, but it's useful in demonstrating the fallacy involved in that statement.

FWIW, all three of the items you pointed out seem to be favorable for BYU this year, with the possible exception of the toughest in-conference games being on the road this year.

The "odds" is a fast way for people that aren't such stat geeks to sum up all that crap of "memory" which has been spoken...ie....teams being pissed for getting run over the last two years and the mo they bring with it, injuries, how many players your team returns, how many players the other teams returns, which games are on the road, which ones are at home, adverse weather conditions possible, coaching changes, and on and on.

Now, these aren't items of "memory" per se...but they all factor in to how a season is played out, and have an effect on the outcome.

So, since I'm not a stats geek, or an English major, I throw out the word "odds" to capture all that...so, then, what is the best way to express all those factors succinctly without sounding like a spaz...oh, wait....?

And in the words of Count Olaf....."Thaaaanks for corrrrrecting me"