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01-24-2008, 04:21 PM | #1 | |
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01-24-2008, 05:48 PM | #2 |
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MW in some sense that's true. By reality, I think you mean ex post outcomes or you might mean the true ex ante probabilities based on the correct assessment of all information relevant for determining who will win the election. In either case, there is not much to disagree with. However, intrade, by far, is going to be your best predictor unless you have a serious private information advantage (and then you should trading off of it which would make the prices more efficient.) It is going to be the best ex ante signal. Jay, is certainly correct that the market doesn't have great "depth" and that certainly limits the efficiency of the market. However, there is empirical evidence from the 2004 presidential election that it responds quickly to new information and gives a better assessment of the importance of new information than other sources.
Last edited by pelagius; 01-24-2008 at 05:56 PM. |
01-24-2008, 07:54 PM | #3 | |
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01-24-2008, 08:30 PM | #4 | |
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Florida totally switched today. Romney up 11 to 51 and McCain down 5.5 to 40. What is behind this. Is Gov. Crist planning to play kingmaker?
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Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!! Religion rises inevitably from our apprehension of our own death. To give meaning to meaninglessness is the endless quest of all religion. When death becomes the center of our consciousness, then religion authentically begins. Of all religions that I know, the one that most vehemently and persuasively defies and denies the reality of death is the original Mormonism of the Prophet, Seer and Revelator, Joseph Smith. |
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01-24-2008, 04:35 PM | #5 | |
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01-24-2008, 04:36 PM | #6 |
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I'm not sure what the big deal is about a 3% win in Florida where the winner only gets 25%.
This is really a case of the GOP electorate being disgusted with their choices. |
01-24-2008, 04:38 PM | #7 | |
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...imary-260.html Once that 1/20 Survey USA poll falls off, Romney will take the RCP Average lead. His trends are better than McCain's.
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Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!! Religion rises inevitably from our apprehension of our own death. To give meaning to meaninglessness is the endless quest of all religion. When death becomes the center of our consciousness, then religion authentically begins. Of all religions that I know, the one that most vehemently and persuasively defies and denies the reality of death is the original Mormonism of the Prophet, Seer and Revelator, Joseph Smith. |
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01-24-2008, 06:07 PM | #8 | |
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Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!! Religion rises inevitably from our apprehension of our own death. To give meaning to meaninglessness is the endless quest of all religion. When death becomes the center of our consciousness, then religion authentically begins. Of all religions that I know, the one that most vehemently and persuasively defies and denies the reality of death is the original Mormonism of the Prophet, Seer and Revelator, Joseph Smith. |
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01-24-2008, 07:32 PM | #9 | |
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01-24-2008, 07:49 PM | #10 | |
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That's not to say beastiality = homosexuality anymore than polygamy = homosexuality.
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