03-06-2008, 06:52 PM | #31 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 5,996
|
Quote:
From what I understand, Puerto Rico is now the biggest remaining contest. Sure, Pennsylvania has more delegates, but they will be split fairly evenly, even if Clinton takes a bit more than Obama. Puerto Rico has 63 delegates, and from my marginal research, it appears it is a winner take all contest. That immediately makes it far and away the biggest get any candidate has left. It is the last primary, and I read that Dean was working to convince them to go with the standard proportional system but to no luck so far. If true, and if Obama can win PR, he could seal up the nomination then (ironic, given the total lack of importance of PR in any election ever here). The critical thing for the Dems will be ensuring that this isn't decided in the convention or, alternatively, that it is decided there but Obama and Clinton are on the same ticket. Otherwise, half the party will walk out feeling robbed. I don't think the Dems will let themselves fall apart like that, and I think steps towards redoing the primaries in Florida and Michigan are a good first step towards ensuring the party doesn't implode. Obama's chances look very good right now. He is almost assured of having the lead at the end of the primary process, both in the popular vote and total delegates pledged. He is securing the votes of super delegates at a rapid pace right now and continues to out-fundraise Clinton (by $25 million last month alone). He has a much broader voting base and donor base than Clinton does so far. He should be the nominee, and I fully expect he will be. It will go longer than the Dems would have liked, but even that could be a net positive for the party as they establish a solid machine in Pennsylvania and other states that will serve them well in the general election. |
|
03-06-2008, 07:06 PM | #32 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,596
|
Quote:
The Florida move was more Republican generated, but there were also several key Democrats on board, and no one really expected at that time that the DNC would void the entire Democrat vote.
__________________
"Have we been commanded not to call a prophet an insular racist? Link?" "And yes, [2010] is a very good year to be a Democrat. Perhaps the best year in decades ..." - Cali Coug "Oh dear, granny, what a long tail our puss has got." - Brigham Young Last edited by Tex; 03-06-2008 at 07:17 PM. |
|
03-06-2008, 07:06 PM | #33 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Denver
Posts: 1,502
|
I don't know that a revote in Florida and Michigan would really help much. I've heard that Florida would be a blow-out victory for Clinton and Michigan likewise for Obama. Is that accurate?
|
03-06-2008, 07:19 PM | #34 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 5,996
|
Quote:
I don't have a problem with the proportial representation rules. I do have a problem with the silly weighting mechanisms that run on a district by district basis, the odd result of lessening the importance of districts that have an even number of delegates to award (since they presumably are supposed to be MORE important in many instances, thus the additional delegate), the convoluted structure of the vote in several states (such as Texas and Washington), and, of course, the notion of superdelegates. It is patently un-Democratic (in all senses of that phrase). It would be a real travesty if the candidate with the most support (as measured by total votes, total delegates, dollar contributions or any other measurable criteria) lost the nomination based on favors and back room politics. Fortunately, I don't think that will happen. |
|
03-06-2008, 07:26 PM | #35 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 5,996
|
According to the Washington Post, the Puerto Rico primary will, in fact, be based on proportionality rather than winner take all as the NY Times and USA Today reported earlier.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-...de_everyt.html |
03-06-2008, 08:06 PM | #36 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Gotham City
Posts: 7,157
|
Quote:
Florida is a closed primary. The elderly vote and Hispanic vote there would be hard for Obama to win. Now, that's all assuming they have an actual vote. Analysts say a caucus would be more likely in the event of a recount, as it would save taxpayer money. In that case, you'd think Obama would take both states, as caucuses have been one of Obama's strengths. No doubt Hillary would throw a hissy if the states went with caucusing for a revote. Honestly, I don't think there's any way to predict how it would play out. But your point stands. Revoting isn't really going to solve the problem, it just adds to the drama. |
|
03-06-2008, 08:19 PM | #37 |
Board Pinhead
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: In the basement of my house, Murray, Utah.
Posts: 15,941
|
Yes, donnybrook is a great word, though it is better used with baseball. Still, I'd like to see Obama and Mrs. Clinton get to the point of fisticuffs. That would be quality tv.
__________________
"The beauty of baseball is not having to explain it." - Chuck Shriver "This is now the joke that stupid people laugh at." - Christopher Hitchens on IQ jokes about GWB. |
03-06-2008, 08:26 PM | #38 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Memphis freakin' Tennessee!!!!!
Posts: 4,530
|
Quote:
I don't get your Florida comments. Older voters have consistenty gone for Hillary, and given that many New Yorkers retire to Florida, I would think she would have that constituency wrapped up. If you're talking Cubans, I can't see them voting for Obama who has said he would meet with Castro no strings attached. Caucuses would favor Obama, hence I see Hillary pushing strong for a real primary. Let every vote count!!! Yes we can! Yes we can!
__________________
Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!! Religion rises inevitably from our apprehension of our own death. To give meaning to meaninglessness is the endless quest of all religion. When death becomes the center of our consciousness, then religion authentically begins. Of all religions that I know, the one that most vehemently and persuasively defies and denies the reality of death is the original Mormonism of the Prophet, Seer and Revelator, Joseph Smith. |
|
03-06-2008, 08:29 PM | #39 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Gotham City
Posts: 7,157
|
Quote:
Unless they have a caucus, in which case you'd think Obama would take both states. |
|
03-06-2008, 08:32 PM | #40 |
Board Pinhead
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: In the basement of my house, Murray, Utah.
Posts: 15,941
|
So very true and I love it. Only the Democrats could possibly blow it like this.
__________________
"The beauty of baseball is not having to explain it." - Chuck Shriver "This is now the joke that stupid people laugh at." - Christopher Hitchens on IQ jokes about GWB. |
Bookmarks |
|
|