The reason I am so depressed about BYU

[Judge Smails]

Not to mention the national power Boise St has won 4 games against BCS teams EVER. I think Gary Crowton beat 4 teams did he not - Syracuse, MSU, ND, GT (correct me if I'm wrong).

They've defeated exactly ZERO on the road EVER, with the neutral site win against Oklahoma. They've also defeated Iowa St and Oregon St twice, all at home.

All the Bronco fans I live with were sure (and continue to be) proud of their Fiesta Bowl run, and more power to them, but I wouldn't trade them positions for anything. The Idaho-Utah St-San Jose St-Nevada-Hawaii-La Tech guantlet would be just too painful to have to watch week in and week out, all so you could get one big shot. Give me UCLA and Arizona (at least) and 8-4 over Cupcake Tech and a Fiesta Bowl any day. (ignoring the $17M payday).

Non-BCS schools have been very fortunate that Utah got Pittsburgh to play and Boise ran the dipsy-doodle to perfection. That bought us a few more years of what I'd consider easy access to the BCS. BYU needs to capitalize, because the minute a non-BCS gets blown out in a BCS bowl, the window will shrink.

But I say capitalize by playing the big boys, thus PROVING we belong if we can win. If we can't win, then we don't belong -just like Boise St probably didn't last year- and that's fine.

[Judge Smails]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

The MWC is 26-23 against the WAC over the last 5 years. I don't have the stats for 2007 handy.

the WAC has never finished ahead of the MWC in Sagarin rankings, nor have they been close.

[bYuPride]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Well, I've got news for you Bubba, BYU can't fix the problems of the MWC.

How did I get into this?

[Flystripper]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

The MWC is 26-23 against the WAC over the last 5 years. I don't have the stats for 2007 handy.

my thinking must have been clouded by more recent years. My statement was clearly wrong but it appears that the honorable Judge Smalls' assumption that the WAC is "far worse" is wrong as well.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

Sure, Here is the Big east scheduling since 2005

Cinci
2005
Eastern Michigan
Penn St
Western Carolina
Maimi OH
2006
Eastern Kentucky
Ohio St.
Miami OH
Akron OH

2007
Southeast Missouri St
Oregon State
Miami OH
Marshall
San Diego State

UCONN
2005
Buffalo
Liberty
Georgia Tech
Army
2006
Rhode Island
Wake Forest
Indiana
Navy
Army
2007
Duke
Maine
Temple
Akron
Virginia

Louisville
2005
Kentucky
Oregon State
Florida Atlantic
North Carolina
2006
Kentucky
Temple
Miami FL
Kansas St
Middle Tennessee
2007
Murray State
Middle Tennessee
Kentucky
NCState
Utah

Pittsburgh
2005
Notre Dame
Ohio
Nebraska
Youngstown St
2006
Virginia
Michigan St
Citadel
Toldeo
Central Florida
2007
Eastern Michigan
Grambling State
Michigan St
Virginia
Navy

Rutgers
2005
Illinois
Villanova
Buffalo
Navy
2006
North Carolina
Illinois
Ohio
Howard
Navy
2007
Buffalo
Navy
Norfolk State
Maryland
Army

South Florida
2005
Penn St
Florida A&M
Central Florida
NC State
2006
McNeese State
Florida International
Central Florida
Kansas
North Carolina
2007
Elon
Auburn
North Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Central Florida

Syracuse
2005
Buffalo
Virginia
Florida St
Notre Dame
2006
Wake Forest
Iowa
Illinois
Miami OH
Wyoming
2007
Washington
Iowa
Illinois
Miami OH
Buffalo

West Virginia
2005
Wofford
Maryland
East Carolina
Virginia Tech
2006
Marshall
Eastern Washington
Maryland
East Carolina
Mississippi St
2007
Western Michigan
Marshall
Maryland
East Carolina
Mississippi St

You can see that if the MWC teams had scheduled the same teams that the OOC records during these seasons would most likely equal that of the Big East. The Big East took it one step further in that they took educational guesses as to which programs would be the strongest in the conference and than for the following year schedules these teams to meet each other as late in the season as possible thus providing the strongest possibility for them to have ranked teams.

Regardless of schedule if your team wins 10 games in a year it will be ranked. If you pull this off two seasons in a row, than you begin showing up in the preseason rankings as a top team. With that extra boost. Who cares if your SOS is in the toilet. Just keep winning your games. The computers took the MOV out of the system initially to protect the status quo from the likes of Boise State who beats up on "inferior" talent. Lo and behold this thing also allows us to cheapen our schedules to ensure that we are crystal clean come conference season and than we maximize the number of ranked teams as well as the number of BCS bowl possibilities.

How many Big East teams were pre-seasoned ranked this year? West Virginia was ranked 6th before a coin was flipped. Louisville was ranked 11th, Rutgers was ranked 16th, and South Florida was getting votes.

You win 10 games one season even with a crap schedule and you are ranked in the top 25. If you have decent amount of returning talent especially at QB, you will get ranked before the season starts even it is only votes. You blaze through your crap schedule featuring bottom feeder MAC teams, Sun Belt fodder and of course the obligatory warm up slumming in the Div IAA's. All you need to complete the illusion is beat a sorry excuse ACC, Big Ten or Big XII program like Baylor, Duke or Northwestern and the deal is done. You are sitting at 4-0 and since your pre seasoned ranked, you can only go up as long as you keep winning. Now flex your scheduling every year so you can make sure the strong horses are always the last to meet. It won't be perfect since there is always a Cinci that might surprise early. But it is good enough to salt the rankings.

I think you're way off on your theory that weak SOS will lead to respectability for a team or conference. You've yet to show me any data to support such a theory.

Big East is an interesting study. I would say Big East resurgence of late is due to:

1. Love affair from ESPN, location location location
2. Rutgers, West Virginia good coaching hires
3. Nice cherry picking of rising non-BCS schools Cincy, Louisville
4. South Florida with 50,000 enrollment, huge alumni base, great recruiting area
5. Investment in facilities and focus on football: see UCONN especially
6. BCS money divided into relative small # of schools

Scheduling is nowhere on the list.

[Judge Smails]

Originally Posted by Flystripper

my thinking must have been clouded by more recent years. My statement was clearly wrong but it appears that the honorable Judge Smalls' assumption that the WAC is "far worse" is wrong as well.

Having no other data source I've used Sagarin ratings - here is a quick comparison of the MWC to the WAC since 1999. (incidentally, the WAC has not been a top 7 conference since 1998....hmmmm.) I've also included the BCS conference directly ahead of us (sometimes below us) in the analysis for reference. (I have used Sagarin's simple mean)

2007
#6 - Big 10 75.36
#7 - MWC 69.09
#8 - WAC 62.51

2006
#6 - Big 12 74.34
#7 - MWC 68.34
#8 - WAC 63.88

2005
#6 - Big East 72.12
#7 - MWC 69.51
#10 WAC 61.90

2004
#6 - MWC 72.08
#7 - Big East 71.98
#8 - WAC 67.40

2003
#6 - Big East 74.45
#7 - MWC 71.85
#10 - WAC 63.41

2002
#6 - Big East 76.56
#7 - MWC 66.39
#10 - WAC 61.10

2001
#6 - Big East 76.37
#7 - MWC 68.21
#9 - WAC 62.97

2000
#6 - ACC 74.90
#8 - MWC 67.11
#9 - WAC 64.79

1999
#6 - MWC 73.96
#7 - Big East 72.77
#9 - WAC 64.86

That's 9 straight years, NEVER having finished behind the WAC in Sagarin, with the closest they've ever come happening 7 years ago when they pulled within 2.32 Sagarin Points (whatever that means).

Don't you think if, as Flystripper put it, the WAC "has owned" the MWC they'd finish ahead of us just once in the past 9 years.

Now this is a bit like the saxophone player making fun of the tromboner for having worse acne than him, but if you want to make any argument but that the WAC is "far worse" than the MWC you're on meth.

It's not even close.

[NorCal Cat]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

We can win out the season and not even know if we are a good team!!!!!!

You mean like last year? And any other year in which we don't play any really good teams, or make a BCS bowl?

[Ace Tomato Co.]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Agreed. The Boise State model is the anti-BYU71.

Look, I think we can all agree with the general sentiment being expressed by Judge Smails & Indy - having to watch our team play in the WAC and having an OOC slate with nobody on it would suck. I wouldn't watch half the games.

I used to live in Boise, and their team is a laughingstock. I can guarantee you that BYU's players would not be celebrating at midfield after a 4-overtime win over Nevada, and I like that about CougarNation.

Getting a shot at a BCS bowl is NOT worth the pain caused by a crappy regular season. Case in point: did anyone enjoy the EWU game? Anybody?

[Flystripper]

Originally Posted by Judge Smails

Having no other data source I've used Sagarin ratings - here is a quick comparison of the MWC to the WAC since 1999. (incidentally, the WAC has not been a top 7 conference since 1998....hmmmm.) I've also included the BCS conference directly ahead of us (sometimes below us) in the analysis for reference. (I have used Sagarin's simple mean)

2007
#6 - Big 10 75.36
#7 - MWC 69.09
#8 - WAC 62.51

2006
#6 - Big 12 74.34
#7 - MWC 68.34
#8 - WAC 63.88

2005
#6 - Big East 72.12
#7 - MWC 69.51
#10 WAC 61.90

2004
#6 - MWC 72.08
#7 - Big East 71.98
#8 - WAC 67.40

2003
#6 - Big East 74.45
#7 - MWC 71.85
#10 - WAC 63.41

2002
#6 - Big East 76.56
#7 - MWC 66.39
#10 - WAC 61.10

2001
#6 - Big East 76.37
#7 - MWC 68.21
#9 - WAC 62.97

2000
#6 - ACC 74.90
#8 - MWC 67.11
#9 - WAC 64.79

1999
#6 - MWC 73.96
#7 - Big East 72.77
#9 - WAC 64.86

That's 9 straight years, NEVER having finished behind the WAC in Sagarin, with the closest they've ever come happening 7 years ago when they pulled within 2.32 Sagarin Points (whatever that means).

Don't you think if, as Flystripper put it, the WAC "has owned" the MWC they'd finish ahead of us just once in the past 9 years.

Now this is a bit like the saxophone player making fun of the tromboner for having worse acne than him, but if you want to make any argument but that the WAC is "far worse" than the MWC you're on meth.

It's not even close.

YOU said the WAC was "far worse" than the MWC. The sagarin rankings that you posted (if you think that is the best measure) are not "far worse" than the MWC. They are worse buy not by the margin that you would have us believe. The WAC is getting better and better and closing the gap.

IF you look at W-L head to head meetings you get this:


2007 MWC 4 WAC 3
2006 MWC 5 WAC 7
2005 MWC 5 WAC 3


MWC 14 WAC 13 What is even more interesting is that 6 of our 14 wins over the past 3 years were over Utah State which is why I was under the impression that the WAC was owning us.

I was wrong that the WAC as been owning the MWC for the past 5 years. I admitted as much when Indy psoted the 5 year overall record head to head. What I don't buy is your notion that the MWC is a vastly superior conference to the WAC. While the MWC may have a slight edge on quality top to bottom the WAC stacks up pretty dang well and has performed well in head to head matchups with the exception of Utah State.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Flystripper

YOU said the WAC was "far worse" than the MWC The sagarin rankings tat you posted (if you think that is the best measure) are not "far worse" than the MWC. They are worse buy not by the margin that you would have us believe. The WAC is getting better and better and closing the gap.

IF you look at W-L head to head meetings you get this:


2007 MWC 4 WAC 3
2006 MWC 5 WAC 7
2005 MWC 5 WAC 3


MWC 14 WAC 13 What is even more interesting is that 6 of our 14 wins over the past 3 years were over Utah State which is why I was under the impression that the WAC was owning us.

I was wrong that the WAC as been owning the MWC for the past 5 years. I admitted as much when Indy psoted the 5 year overall record head to head. What I don't buy is your notion that the WAC is a vastly superior conference to the MWC. While the MWC may have a slight edge on quality top to bottom the WAC stacks up pretty dang well and has performed well in head to head matchups with the exception of Utah State.

The top of the MWC and the top of the WAC are relatively comparable. The bottom half of the two conferences is where most of the separation exists between the two conferences.