03-13-2007, 06:47 PM | #1 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,431
|
Even More RPI and Seeding Talk
I took Indy's RPI results and augmented them by doing the same thing with the Massey rating (see his post for methodology: http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...ml?id=2545050:)
Code:
rpi NCAA rpi mass mass mass team rpi seed seed diff rank seed diff Kentucky 12 3 8 -5 22 6 -2 Villanova 15 4 9 -5 28 7 -2 Creighton 20 5 10 -5 47 10 0 UNLV 10 3 7 -4 16 4 -3 Arizona 14 4 8 -4 12 3 -5 Illinois 30 8 12 -4 36 9 -3 Brigham Young 19 5 8 -3 39 9 1 Michigan St 24 6 9 -3 27 7 -2 Arkansas 35 9 12 -3 43 10 -2 Old Dominion 37 9 12 -3 71 12 0 S Illinois 7 2 4 -2 14 4 0 Duke 16 4 6 -2 17 5 -1 Marquette 22 6 8 -2 25 6 -2 Davidson 49 11 13 -2 52 11 -2 UCLA 2 1 2 -1 3 1 -1 Wisconsin 4 1 2 -1 2 1 -1 Pittsburgh 5 2 3 -1 9 3 0 Tennessee 13 4 5 -1 18 5 0 Nevada 23 6 7 -1 20 5 -2 Xavier 32 8 9 -1 61 12 3 VA Commonwealth 42 10 11 -1 62 12 1 Holy Cross 61 12 13 -1 102 14 1 New Mexico St 69 12 13 -1 69 12 -1 Wright St 73 13 14 -1 97 13 -1 TAM C. Christi 82 14 15 -1 93 13 -2 E Kentucky 128 15 16 -1 181 16 0 Ohio St 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 North Carolina 3 1 1 0 6 2 1 Memphis 8 2 2 0 8 2 0 Indiana 28 7 7 0 31 8 1 Penn 81 14 14 0 109 14 0 Oral Roberts 89 14 14 0 106 14 0 Belmont 112 15 15 0 155 15 0 North Texas 126 15 15 0 156 15 0 Central Conn 150 16 16 0 184 16 0 Jackson St 166 16 16 0 228 16 0 Florida A&M 164 16 16 0 223 16 0 Niagara 134 16 16 0 161 16 0 Florida 6 2 1 1 4 1 0 Georgetown 9 3 2 1 7 2 0 Maryland 17 5 4 1 15 4 0 Boston College 33 8 7 1 37 9 2 Purdue 44 10 9 1 38 9 0 Georgia Tech 52 11 10 1 30 8 -2 Texas Tech 53 11 10 1 53 11 1 Stanford 67 12 11 1 33 8 -3 Long Beach St 80 13 12 1 89 13 1 Albany NY 83 14 13 1 132 15 2 Miami OH 90 15 14 1 114 14 0 Weber St 143 16 15 1 158 15 0 Kansas 11 3 1 2 5 2 1 Texas A&M 18 5 3 2 13 4 1 Butler 27 7 5 2 49 11 6 Notre Dame 31 8 6 2 24 6 0 Gonzaga 60 12 10 2 58 11 1 Winthrop 70 13 11 2 29 7 -4 G Washington 72 13 11 2 72 13 2 Oregon 21 6 3 3 10 3 0 Texas 25 7 4 3 21 5 1 Louisville 38 9 6 3 26 7 1 Washington St 26 7 3 4 11 3 0 Virginia Tech 34 9 5 4 40 10 5 Vanderbilt 47 10 6 4 41 10 4 USC 40 10 5 5 23 6 1 Virginia 55 11 4 7 35 8 4 Code:
Mean absolute deviation for Massey = 1.262 Mean absolute deviation for RPI = 1.815 Last edited by pelagius; 03-13-2007 at 06:54 PM. |
03-13-2007, 06:54 PM | #2 |
Demiurge
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 36,365
|
I want to see a comparison of the regression between RPI and seeding for mid-major vs power-conference, with a statistical test at alpha = .05.
|
03-13-2007, 07:05 PM | #3 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,431
|
Quote:
You might get something if you limited to seed 12 or better. |
|
03-13-2007, 07:07 PM | #4 |
Demiurge
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 36,365
|
just do it for all at-larges.
|
03-13-2007, 07:11 PM | #5 |
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 10,665
|
How do you square this obsession with your philosphy that those who are obsessed with ref calls are losers in the big game of life?
__________________
Interrupt all you like. We're involved in a complicated story here, and not everything is quite what it seems to be. —Paul Auster |
03-13-2007, 07:13 PM | #6 |
Demiurge
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 36,365
|
I square this with my obsession of fighting the wealthy corrupt.
|
03-13-2007, 07:17 PM | #7 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,431
|
For seed <= 12 (it works for the whole sample as well):
Code:
. reg seed rpiseed power; Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 48 -------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 45) = 26.26 Model | 308.031875 2 154.015938 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 263.968125 45 5.86595833 R-squared = 0.5385 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.5180 Total | 572 47 12.1702128 Root MSE = 2.422 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ seed | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- rpiseed | .6217125 .09951 6.25 0.000 .421289 .822136 power | -1.830879 .7853461 -2.33 0.024 -3.412648 -.2491109 _cons | 3.703932 1.004132 3.69 0.001 1.681506 5.726359 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Note: my power variable might have some errors in it. I added it by hand very quickly. |
03-13-2007, 07:18 PM | #8 |
Demiurge
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 36,365
|
exactly as I thought. Of course, you will never get the bigwigs to talk about this.
You should forward this to one of the espn writers like Andy Katz. |
03-13-2007, 07:24 PM | #9 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,431
|
Quote:
Look at what happens if we do the same thing with the massey rankings: Code:
. reg seed mseed power; Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 48 -------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 45) = 43.96 Model | 378.358437 2 189.179219 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 193.641563 45 4.30314583 R-squared = 0.6615 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.6464 Total | 572 47 12.1702128 Root MSE = 2.0744 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ seed | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- mseed | .777461 .093222 8.34 0.000 .5897022 .9652198 power | -.2265484 .7286263 -0.31 0.757 -1.694077 1.24098 _cons | 1.558384 1.000078 1.56 0.126 -.4558772 3.572645 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
03-13-2007, 07:30 PM | #10 |
Demiurge
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 36,365
|
however your chances of winning a road game are much less. the power conferences don't play any road games against mid-majors.
|
Bookmarks |
|
|