BYU just hosted an international conference

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

There are roughly 35 to 50 non-black LDS members for every black member. There are approximately 200 to 250 "temporary" members of the Seventy.

Therefore, assuming perfect ethnic proportionality, you would expect around 5 to 8 black members of the Seventy.

There are 9 listed on this page (although I don't know how many, if any, have been released).

http://www.hotpepper.ca/lds/africa/history/leaders.html

Good luck proving with any standard hypothesis testing reliable statistical significance that there is some disproportional ethnic representation by the black membership.

Where do you get that there are 35-50 times more non-blacks than blacks in the church membership?

[RockyBalboa]

I'd like to note I haven't been the cause of fighting in this thread. lol.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Are you really that mental? Bishop <> General Authority. Get back to me when you find a General Authority sustained in the last 30 years with 3 years or less in the church.

Thanks in advance.

It was a sarcastic joke- I forgot that actuaries actually do need the "TIC" label in order to get it.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Where do you get that there are 35-50 times more non-blacks than blacks in the church membership?

There are a quarter million African members (I lost the link from yesterday). I doubt there are more than a quarter million black members outside of Africa, nor are all of the African members black.

So I used an estimate of 250,000 to 400,000 blacks. If you want to tweak the upper bound on the estimate, that's fine, but it doesn't undermine the mathematical example I gave.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Where do you get the arbitrary number of 30 years to become a good GA? I agree about calling less wealthy individuals, though I believe progress has been made in that area.

Find a relatively decent-sized sample of GA bios. Track the amount of time between conversion and/or adulthood and when they were called as a GA.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

It was a sarcastic joke- I forgot that actuaries actually do need the "TIC" label in order to get it.

Given some of your other off-kilter responses, I decided it was foolish to take anything you say for granted.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

There are a quarter million African members (I lost the link from yesterday). I doubt there are more than a quarter million black members outside of Africa, nor are all of the African members black.

So I used an estimate of 250,000 to 400,000 blacks. If you want to tweak the upper bound on the estimate, that's fine, but it doesn't undermine the mathematical example I gave.

In other words, you made the number up, and now you are saying I can "tweak the upper bounds of the estimate" (which is purely your estimate based on nothing more than a guess).

Fine work, Mr. Actuary.

By the way, assuming your own estimate of 400,000 is correct, that would be one black for every 32 members, not 35 (so even your "mathematical example" was flawed based on your made up figures).

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Find a relatively decent-sized sample of GA bios. Track the amount of time between conversion and/or adulthood and when they were called as a GA.

To what end?

First of all, you are talking now only about time as being a member as the "qualifying" criteria for gaining the necessary experience to serve as a GA. You have just dramatically increased the pool of "eligible" black candidates (I use the word eligible in quotes because I believe they are eligible simply by being called- with or without any experience- whereas you seem to think there is some sort of length of time they must serve to be eligible).

I would be willing to bet there are tens of thousands of blacks with over 25 years of experience as members, perhaps even more.

Second of all, why are you so married to the concept of "needing experience" to be a GA? Just because most GAs called today have a lot of experience as members of the church? Since when does the recent custom become a requirement?

Could the church call anyone they want to be a GA? Yes or no? Have they called people before with little to no experience? Yes or no? There is the answer to your questions (and you don't even need to add!).

[SeattleUte]

Moderators, I propose you lock this thread.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

In other words, you made the number up, and now you are saying I can "tweak the upper bounds of the estimate" (which is purely your estimate based on nothing more than a guess).

Fine work, Mr. Actuary.

By the way, assuming your own estimate of 400,000 is correct, that would be one black for every 32 members, not 35 (so even your "mathematical example" was flawed based on your made up figures).

Well, if you weren't a mathematical ignoramous, you'd realize I was using very rounded numbers to make a point. That point is not dependent on precise accurate numbers but ballpark numbers.

Why don't you enlist the help of someone that understands math and do some statistical hypothesis testing (try boardmailing Pelagius).

If you think my ballpark numbers so far off, feel free to provide some data to prove otherwise. If you think even a relatively large change in those ratios matters that much, feel free to statistically demonstrate that fact.

In the absence of that, your lazy-ass criticisms ring completely hollow.