Hoopla aside

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

Cali, Ma'ake, Adam, Sooner have been strangely muted. I bet they're in shock. This thing has been going per script for the Republicans.

Nah, just been busy. Sure, it would have been nice for Obama to slam the door on her on the 4th. It didn't happen, but I don't know that anyone really expected it to happen. She was supposed to win Texas and Ohio. Obama made a game out of Texas (and apparently won more delegates there than Clinton) and lost Ohio by more than what recent polls indicated.

From what I understand, Puerto Rico is now the biggest remaining contest. Sure, Pennsylvania has more delegates, but they will be split fairly evenly, even if Clinton takes a bit more than Obama.

Puerto Rico has 63 delegates, and from my marginal research, it appears it is a winner take all contest. That immediately makes it far and away the biggest get any candidate has left. It is the last primary, and I read that Dean was working to convince them to go with the standard proportional system but to no luck so far. If true, and if Obama can win PR, he could seal up the nomination then (ironic, given the total lack of importance of PR in any election ever here).

The critical thing for the Dems will be ensuring that this isn't decided in the convention or, alternatively, that it is decided there but Obama and Clinton are on the same ticket. Otherwise, half the party will walk out feeling robbed. I don't think the Dems will let themselves fall apart like that, and I think steps towards redoing the primaries in Florida and Michigan are a good first step towards ensuring the party doesn't implode.

Obama's chances look very good right now. He is almost assured of having the lead at the end of the primary process, both in the popular vote and total delegates pledged. He is securing the votes of super delegates at a rapid pace right now and continues to out-fundraise Clinton (by $25 million last month alone). He has a much broader voting base and donor base than Clinton does so far. He should be the nominee, and I fully expect he will be. It will go longer than the Dems would have liked, but even that could be a net positive for the party as they establish a solid machine in Pennsylvania and other states that will serve them well in the general election.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Much of the mess is thanks to the Republican-controlled legislatures in Michigan and Florida who moved their primaries back far enough to invite sanction from the DNC.

Hold on now a sec, Barbara. Let's give credit where credit is due. The Michigan move was spearheaded by Democrats, the most active of which was Carl Levin, and signed into law by a Democrat governor, Jennifer Granholm.

The Florida move was more Republican generated, but there were also several key Democrats on board, and no one really expected at that time that the DNC would void the entire Democrat vote.

[woot]

I don't know that a revote in Florida and Michigan would really help much. I've heard that Florida would be a blow-out victory for Clinton and Michigan likewise for Obama. Is that accurate?

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

Can somebody think of something succinct and eloquent to say about how this was the inevitable result of inherent democratic party excesses and foilbles. It can't just have been bad luck or the doings of a deranged one or powermongering few. They may not blow this yet but they are leaving no stone unturned in making it possible.

The Democrats certainly have a bad process. It is ironic, for a party so focused on giving a voice to the voters.

I don't have a problem with the proportial representation rules. I do have a problem with the silly weighting mechanisms that run on a district by district basis, the odd result of lessening the importance of districts that have an even number of delegates to award (since they presumably are supposed to be MORE important in many instances, thus the additional delegate), the convoluted structure of the vote in several states (such as Texas and Washington), and, of course, the notion of superdelegates. It is patently un-Democratic (in all senses of that phrase).

It would be a real travesty if the candidate with the most support (as measured by total votes, total delegates, dollar contributions or any other measurable criteria) lost the nomination based on favors and back room politics. Fortunately, I don't think that will happen.

[Cali Coug]

According to the Washington Post, the Puerto Rico primary will, in fact, be based on proportionality rather than winner take all as the NY Times and USA Today reported earlier.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-...de_everyt.html

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by woot

I don't know that a revote in Florida and Michigan would really help much. I've heard that Florida would be a blow-out victory for Clinton and Michigan likewise for Obama. Is that accurate?

It's too hard to say. Michigan is an open primary, and we know now that Republican voters are doing whatever they can to throw the Democratic nomination into utter chaos. So they might vote either way depending on what the conservative pundits think will cause the most trouble.

Florida is a closed primary. The elderly vote and Hispanic vote there would be hard for Obama to win.

Now, that's all assuming they have an actual vote. Analysts say a caucus would be more likely in the event of a recount, as it would save taxpayer money. In that case, you'd think Obama would take both states, as caucuses have been one of Obama's strengths. No doubt Hillary would throw a hissy if the states went with caucusing for a revote.

Honestly, I don't think there's any way to predict how it would play out. But your point stands. Revoting isn't really going to solve the problem, it just adds to the drama.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death

I've always liked "donnybrook" they generally only use that with baseball fights though

Yes, donnybrook is a great word, though it is better used with baseball. Still, I'd like to see Obama and Mrs. Clinton get to the point of fisticuffs. That would be quality tv.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

It's too hard to say. Michigan is an open primary, and we know now that Republican voters are doing whatever they can to throw the Democratic nomination into utter chaos. So they might vote either way depending on what the conservative pundits think will cause the most trouble.

Florida is a closed primary. The elderly vote and Hispanic vote there would be hard for Obama to win.

Now, that's all assuming they have an actual vote. Analysts say a caucus would be more likely in the event of a recount, as it would save taxpayer money. In that case, you'd think Obama would take both states, as caucuses have been one of Obama's strengths. No doubt Hillary would throw a hissy if the states went with caucusing for a revote.

Honestly, I don't think there's any way to predict how it would play out. But your point stands. Revoting isn't really going to solve the problem, it just adds to the drama.

Would everyone get another chance to vote? Even those Repubs that voted in the previous Repub primary?

I don't get your Florida comments. Older voters have consistenty gone for Hillary, and given that many New Yorkers retire to Florida, I would think she would have that constituency wrapped up. If you're talking Cubans, I can't see them voting for Obama who has said he would meet with Castro no strings attached.

Caucuses would favor Obama, hence I see Hillary pushing strong for a real primary. Let every vote count!!! Yes we can! Yes we can!

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

Would everyone get another chance to vote? Even those Repubs that voted in the previous Repub primary?

I don't get your Florida comments. Older voters have consistenty gone for Hillary, and given that many New Yorkers retire to Florida, I would think she would have that constituency wrapped up. If you're talking Cubans, I can't see them voting for Obama who has said he would meet with Castro no strings attached.

Caucuses would favor Obama, hence I see Hillary pushing strong for a real primary. Let every vote count!!! Yes we can! Yes we can!

Yes, that's what I was trying to say. Michigan is up in the air, but it'd be nearly impossible for Obama to take Florida...

Unless they have a caucus, in which case you'd think Obama would take both states.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Archaea

As has been said many times, the only party which is ever more stupid than the morons in the Republican Party are those in the Democratic Party.

So very true and I love it. Only the Democrats could possibly blow it like this.