I think Eugene Robinson gets it right here

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

These are the latest polls for Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey:

Florida - Clinton 56% Obama 23%
California - Clinton 39% Obama 27%
Pennsylvania - Clinton 40% Obama 20%
New Jersey - Clinton 45% Obama 27%

I could be wrong, but that seems like an awful big hill to climb. I think people want closure and Super Tuesday should give them opportunity for that.

I know you like Obama a lot, but I think the Clintons are doing a good job of making him look like a lightweight. They goad and he responds, which is not the image he banks on; conclusion: politics is indeed a dirty, scrappy business. In a way, they are destroying the imagery that makes him so popular. Obama wants to stay above the fray, bringing people together for the common good. He can't do that if he's constantly swatting at the Clinton flies.

Florida doesn't count, and Pennsylvania and New Jersey likely will go to Clinton as northeastern states. Obama can then take the midwest and south, and do well in the west. Luckily for Obama, NY is also a proportional delegate state, or he would be in trouble. For Republicans, NY and Cal. are winner take all.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Tex

As Romney and the state of Wyoming has learned, delegates are not always what counts at this stage. As you should know, perception in these early contests can have a big influence on later voters.

Rumor has it anyway that an arrangement will be made with excluded states come convention time. We'll see.

Democrats aren't paying any attention at all to Florida. Just like they didn't care at all about Michigan. Obama and Edwards weren't even on the ballot in Michigan. Did Hillary get a bump from Michigan? Nobody would argue that. The entire media focus for Florida will be on the Republicans (again, just as with Michigan).

And what "rumor" is it you are trying to claim with Michigan and Florida delegates? The party has made it pretty clear that if those delegates are seated at all, it will only be after a nominee has emerged (making their participation totally useless).

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Florida doesn't count, and Pennsylvania and New Jersey likely will go to Clinton as northeastern states. Obama can then take the midwest and south, and do well in the west. Luckily for Obama, NY is also a proportional delegate state, or he would be in trouble. For Republicans, NY and Cal. are winner take all.

Yeah, I noticed the Florida mistake after posting. You obviously know your party better than I do. I still think Clinton will get most of the the Super Tuesday states and wrap it up. Perhaps I'm giving into media hype. If not, then it will be odd for the Repubs to have their candidate after Super Tuesday while the Dems snipe at each other for weeks to come.

Should Clinton get the nomination, do you think Obama would be interested in the VP slot? That could be a pretty formidable team. Or is there too much water under the bridge?

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

Yeah, I noticed the Florida mistake after posting. You obviously know your party better than I do. I still think Clinton will get most of the the Super Tuesday states and wrap it up. Perhaps I'm giving into media hype. If not, then it will be odd for the Repubs to have their candidate after Super Tuesday while the Dems snipe at each other for weeks to come.

Should Clinton get the nomination, do you think Obama would be interested in the VP slot? That could be a pretty formidable team. Or is there too much water under the bridge?

I don't see Clinton picking Obama (or him accepting), but who knows. It would be a very strong ticket.

Why do you think Republicans will have things sorted out after Super Tuesday? If anything, I think they will be more muddled than the Democrats. Romney will take several states (including Florida with half its delegates available due to the Republican penalty), and McCain will take several. Giuliani could take one or two. Huckabee will likely take a few in the south.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Democrats aren't paying any attention at all to Florida. Just like they didn't care at all about Michigan. Obama and Edwards weren't even on the ballot in Michigan. Did Hillary get a bump from Michigan? Nobody would argue that. The entire media focus for Florida will be on the Republicans (again, just as with Michigan).

I disagree, and I think most Democrat commentators would as well. There were some very interesting narratives coming out of Michigan, and not really positive for Clinton, including the small 15% gap between her and "Uncommitted", and her poor showing among blacks. Imagine if she had lost.

Major network anchors may ho-hum, and the candidates themselves may not campaign there, but the vote still matters. If something other than "the expected" outcome happens ... expect it to get covered, expect it to have an influence.

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

And what "rumor" is it you are trying to claim with Michigan and Florida delegates? The party has made it pretty clear that if those delegates are seated at all, it will only be after a nominee has emerged (making their participation totally useless).

It's not a "rumor." It's a rumor, and not one off Republican blogs. I'm not wagering any "karma points" on it, but it's out there and in more than one place. As I said, we'll see.

PS. I'm not claiming, by the way, that the Florida Democrat primary has the same implications as the Republican one. Just to be clear.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

I don't see Clinton picking Obama (or him accepting), but who knows. It would be a very strong ticket.

Why do you think Republicans will have things sorted out after Super Tuesday? If anything, I think they will be more muddled than the Democrats. Romney will take several states (including Florida with half its delegates available due to the Republican penalty), and McCain will take several. Giuliani could take one or two. Huckabee will likely take a few in the south.

I think Repubs like order and are looking to unite behind someone, even McCain. I think the Florida winner will do very well on Super Tuesday. If Romney, then he will have the big mo and the money to be competitive in every state. The tide will turn quickly as his opponents will be beaten emotionally as well as financially. If McCain, that's two in a row and the momentum, adding to the media wanting badly to name him the nominee. Romney will be seen as a loser in competitive states. If Rudy, then it really could be a mess, but I don't think Rudy can pull it out.

It will either be Romney or McCain, and I think McCain wins Florida. The latest SurveyUSA poll from yesterday has him up 5 while Rasmussen has Romney up 5. No clear trend and McCain is a scrappy SOB. Call it a hunch.

[MikeWaters]

If Romney loses, he has no one but himself to blame. He mislabeled himself and miscalculated. If he wins, it will be despite these poor decisions.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...d=opinionsbox1

That debate last night was incredible; the animosity was so apparent. This after playing kissing face in Nevada. I don't think they can retreat from this and I suspect the Obama campaign, many of them former Clintonies, will come out swinging, particularly after Hillary's comments that Obama is "frustrated". This is going to be an entertaining two weeks.

Sadly, after the Clintons wrap up the nomination after Super Duper Tuesday, all this will die down.

Maybe McCain will be the best candidate for the Repubs; he'd be happy to put on the gloves and take on both Clintons at the same time.

Mrs. Clinton just doesn't like it when her opponents use her tactics against her, does she?

Obama should not have been a wimp and really gone for her throat after her shot about a "slum lord" helping to raise money for Obama's campaign. One name is all it would take: Norman Hsu.

You are correct, it will be an interesting two weeks. Here's to Obama and Mrs. Clinton attacking each other to the point that they both lose focus of the objective and Edwards winning the nomination by coming through the back door.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

If Romney loses, he has no one but himself to blame. He mislabeled himself and miscalculated. If he wins, it will be despite these poor decisions.

Perhaps you could tutor him about staying on message.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

Perhaps you could tutor him about staying on message.

Be yourself, and let the chips fall where they may. That's what he needs to learn.