End of the Gay Marriage Debate

[Tex]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

However the winds of change still blow in favor of gay marriage and domestic partnerships.

You're conflating two separate issues. Most Americans seem amenable to some form of DP (and not only for same sex partners, I might add). However, most Americans also seem opposed to gay marriage, even in "moderate, secular" Maine.

It's an interesting statistic that in not a single place where gay marriage has been put to the vote of the people has it ever passed.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Tex

You're conflating two separate issues. Most Americans seem amenable to some form of DP (and not only for same sex partners, I might add). However, most Americans also seem opposed to gay marriage, even in "moderate, secular" Maine.

It's an interesting statistic that in not a single place where gay marriage has been put to the vote of the people has it ever passed.

Hasn't it passed in certain municipalities, such as San Francisco? I wouldn't put much stock in the normative process if you believed it was an eternal principle.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Hasn't it passed in certain municipalities, such as San Francisco? I wouldn't put much stock in the normative process if you believed it was an eternal principle.

I was speaking about the state level. Municipalities are not empowered to modify the state definition of marriage.

I don't understand what you're getting at with your second sentence.

[Levin]

I still maintain that the next, large bruising NATIONAL debate about gay marriage will be the last -- and this would happen, I think, if Romney were the nominee.

Maine was important to the activists, but in the grand scheme of things, it's no indicator of a tide turner. The margin of victory would have been much larger just four years ago.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Levin

I still maintain that the next, large bruising NATIONAL debate about gay marriage will be the last -- and this would happen, I think, if Romney were the nominee.

Maine was important to the activists, but in the grand scheme of things, it's no indicator of a tide turner. The margin of victory would have been much larger just four years ago.

I agree with that, but for a different reason. I don't see any tide at all.

Americans are (so far) universally voting down gay marriage. People on your side say stuff like the "margin is getting narrower" but there's no proof of that. The only tangible evidence of any kind of tide is a string of (now) 31 losses.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Levin

I still maintain that the next, large bruising NATIONAL debate about gay marriage will be the last -- and this would happen, I think, if Romney were the nominee.

Maine was important to the activists, but in the grand scheme of things, it's no indicator of a tide turner. The margin of victory would have been much larger just four years ago.

Well I would have thought Maine would have been a shoe-in, so there must be more than a little residual reservation about creating "marriage" for gays. I don't understand the phenomenon because the debate is tiresome amidst a time of a desperate economy.

[Levin]

Support for gay marriage has gone up in every state, all 50, over the past ten years, with the fastest acceleration in the past 4 years.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/m...arriage_a.html

Do you think that gay marriage will not be adopted in this country on a universal basis?

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Levin

Support for gay marriage has gone up in every state, all 50, over the past ten years, with the fastest acceleration in the past 4 years.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/06/gay_marriage_a.html

Do you think that gay marriage will not be adopted in this country on a universal basis?

I make no assumptions though I would not be surprised if it became universal. Conversely, I could see it losing steam and stalling as well. It is simply not as sexy as other issues.

[Levin]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Conversely, I could see it losing steam and stalling as well. It is simply not as sexy as other issues.

You may be right, and there likely will be fits and starts here and there, but generally I don't think we can underestimate the concerted and persistent effort of the gay rights campaigners, nor the sensibilities of the rising generation.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Levin

Support for gay marriage has gone up in every state, all 50, over the past ten years, with the fastest acceleration in the past 4 years.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/m...arriage_a.html

Do you think that gay marriage will not be adopted in this country on a universal basis?

And in that same timespan, 31 states have voted to ban gay marriage, some more than once.

Look, I don't argue with the notion that homosexuality is becoming normalized among many Americans (much to my chagrin). But whether that means all those states will universally cross the 50% line in actually supporting gay marriage legislation (or translate said support to votes at the ballot box) is something else entirely. Over at 538 where Nate Silver pegged the likelihood of gay marriage to pass at 71% in Maine, he wonders if there's a "Bradley Effect" going on, undermining the polls.

I don't know what the future holds, and maybe Americans will someday universally accept gay marriage, but legislative evidence of such a trend is a long way off. Even if the remaining 19 states ALL voted to recognize gay marriage today, you'd still have an extremely steep march up the rest of that hill. As it stands, the only states that offer gay marriage have done so via the legislature (which is legitimate, IMO) and judicial fiat (which is not). That doesn't bode well for the movement.