Florida is a "must win" for Romney.

[Tex]

I put "must win" in quotes on purpose. Is Romney finished if he comes in 2nd? No ... and if it's a close loss, he may do okay anyway.

But Romney needs to make a national demonstration that he can win a tight race. The race with Obama will likely be tight, and with Clinton it might be as well. Beating McCain would have the immediate good effect of damaging him, but it would send the more valuable long-term message: "I can win in a pinch."

Apparently Rasmussen has him pulling ahead nationally for the first time. Now is the moment to demonstrate he has the ability to pull out a contentious fight.

Oh, and McCain is a whiner.

[tooblue]

Originally Posted by Tex

I put "must win" in quotes on purpose. Is Romney finished if he comes in 2nd? No ... and if it's a close loss, he may do okay anyway.

But Romney needs to make a national demonstration that he can win a tight race. The race with Obama will likely be tight, and with Clinton it might be as well. Beating McCain would have the immediate good effect of damaging him, but it would send the more valuable long-term message: "I can win in a pinch."

Apparently Rasmussen has him pulling ahead nationally for the first time. Now is the moment to demonstrate he has the ability to pull out a contentious fight.

Oh, and McCain is a whiner.

Those here that support McCain confound me. He IS the republican Bill Clinton -the quintessential politician. He is an angry old man that will undermine the constitution and have the US invading Iran before the end of his first year in office if elected … and the reality is he has been endorsed by the New York Times precisely because he cannot win the general election and as republican party nominee he paves the way for a democratic win.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by tooblue

Those here that support McCain confound me. He IS the republican Bill Clinton -the quintessential politician. He is an angry old man that will undermine the constitution and have the US invading Iran before the end of his first year in office if elected … and the reality is he has been endorsed by the New York Times precisely because he cannot win the general election and as republican party nominee he paves the way for a democratic win.

???

All polls I have heard of have him doing better in the national election compared to all the other GOP candidates. Electability is one of his prime selling points.

[Tex]

And then John Fund is out with this bombshell today:

Mr. McCain bruised his standing with conservatives on the issue when in 2005 he became a key player in the so-called gang of 14, which derailed an effort to end Democratic filibusters of Bush judicial nominees. More recently, Mr. McCain has told conservatives he would be happy to appoint the likes of Chief Justice John Roberts to the Supreme Court. But he indicated he might draw the line on a Samuel Alito, because "he wore his conservatism on his sleeve."

You heard it here first, folks. Sam Alito: too conservative for President John McCain. Ready for another O'Connor? Souter?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1201...olitical_diary

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

???

All polls I have heard of have him doing better in the national election compared to all the other GOP candidates. Electability is one of his prime selling points.

I think national polls are mostly meaningless at this point. It gives you a good idea of where the nation is today vis-a-vis the candidates, but it rarely reflects the final tally.

People have said for the last two elections that independents and moderates are where it's at, and I've always said no, it's about the base. If McCain gets the nomination watch him win every independent and moderate vote out there, and lose because his base won't turn out for him.

[MikeWaters]

Look at the numbers coming out for the dems in the primaries.

I think if Romney wins 100% of his base, he still loses big, because the dems have really increased their base while the GOP has not.

It won't help that 90% of hispanics would vote against Romney.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Tex

People have said for the last two elections that independents and moderates are where it's at, and I've always said no, it's about the base. If McCain gets the nomination watch him win every independent and moderate vote out there, and lose because his base won't turn out for him.

So these hardcore conservative republicans would rather vote for a liberal democrat than a moderate republican? Or are you implying that the core of the republican party would just not turn out to vote? Either way, that's hard to believe.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Tex

I put "must win" in quotes on purpose. Is Romney finished if he comes in 2nd? No ... and if it's a close loss, he may do okay anyway.

But Romney needs to make a national demonstration that he can win a tight race. The race with Obama will likely be tight, and with Clinton it might be as well. Beating McCain would have the immediate good effect of damaging him, but it would send the more valuable long-term message: "I can win in a pinch."

Apparently Rasmussen has him pulling ahead nationally for the first time. Now is the moment to demonstrate he has the ability to pull out a contentious fight.

Oh, and McCain is a whiner.

Florida isn't a must win for Romney, but he can't afford to lose big. I don't think he will- he may even win there which would be a big boost.

He has $$, and lots of it. The others (namely McCain), don't. That is key at this point in the game. With Thompson out (which was a mistake on his part, I think, since he may have emerged from a brokered convention), Romney should be the clear choice for conservatives. McCain would do much better in a general election, but he won't do much for the party, so they don't care how he would do in the general.

No matter, it is all just window dressing anyways since Obama will be the next president of the United States!

[MikeWaters]

Thompson emerging from a brokered convention? ROTFLMAO!!!!

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

So these hardcore conservative republicans would rather vote for a liberal democrat than a moderate republican? Or are you implying that the core of the republican party would just not turn out to vote? Either way, that's hard to believe.

The latter. And it's not that hard to believe. Look at '06. Bush won on turnout in '04.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

Thompson emerging from a brokered convention? ROTFLMAO!!!!

I don't think it would have been that crazy.

If they go to a brokered convention, you have to assume Romney has lots of delegates, McCain has lots, Thompson certainly would have a few, Huckabee probably more than Thompson, and Giuliani picking up some scraps.

So who do the votes shift to? Each of the other 4 main candidates appear to loathe Romney. I don't imagine he would get the endorsement of a single one of the 4. That doesn't mean he doesn't get the delegates of the other 4 to go to him, but it makes it harder. McCain and Giuliani are not the conservative types that would emerge from a brokered convention. That would leave Huck and Thompson. Thompson has a much broader base of support, he has just run an awful campaign. The delegates could easily shift support to him with a McCain or Giuliani picking up the nod for VP to bolster the ticket.