Give me reasons for comfort friends - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

Archaea · 11-16-2008, 07:00 PM

because as I evaluate the two teams, my Bayesian logic says Utah wins this game seven out of ten times.

Utah has progressed over the season and BYU has tanked since the USU game, showing no improvement, but merely appeared to be hanging on.

We have Unga, injured, and Pitta potentially injured. Our middle defense is very weak, weaker than we've ever had in a long time. Utah has two backs and some great receivers. I could see Utah lighting up the scoreboard and we not being able to keep pace.

This defense seems as weak as Bronco's first season, so a bad defeat a la TCU is a distinct possibility.

Junkie is there any reason for hope? Our offense has been sputtering, at times efficient but other times it's as if they can't walk and chew gum. It would be a treat to win this game, but I fully expect Utah to win by fourteen to twenty points and Whit will run up the score if he can to impress BCS voters. This game poses the worst scenario for BYU.

il Padrino Ute · 11-16-2008, 07:27 PM

How about this for a reason to help you:

It's the rivalry game. Throw all the stats, records and everything else out because the really have no bearing on the rivalry game.

Archaea · 11-16-2008, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

How about this for a reason to help you:

It's the rivalry game. Throw all the stats, records and everything else out because the really have no bearing on the rivalry game.

That's not a reason. I hope the Cougars can win, but see no reason why they should, our defense is just toooooooooo pathetic.

FMCoug · 11-16-2008, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

How about this for a reason to help you:

It's the rivalry game. Throw all the stats, records and everything else out because the really have no bearing on the rivalry game.

Exactly. Except for years in which one team is substantially better than the other (i.e. 2004 or all of the 70's and 80's), you can throw expectations, records, etc. out.

exUte · 11-16-2008, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archaea

because as I evaluate the two teams, my Bayesian logic says Utah wins this game seven out of ten times.

Utah has progressed over the season and BYU has tanked since the USU game, showing no improvement, but merely appeared to be hanging on.

We have Unga, injured, and Pitta potentially injured. Our middle defense is very weak, weaker than we've ever had in a long time. Utah has two backs and some great receivers. I could see Utah lighting up the scoreboard and we not being able to keep pace.

This defense seems as weak as Bronco's first season, so a bad defeat a la TCU is a distinct possibility.

Junkie is there any reason for hope? Our offense has been sputtering, at times efficient but other times it's as if they can't walk and chew gum. It would be a treat to win this game, but I fully expect Utah to win by fourteen to twenty points and Whit will run up the score if he can to impress BCS voters. This game poses the worst scenario for BYU.

Still thinking. Our defense is clearly our weak spot........by a long shot. They can't stop a good running game and if the QB has enough time (and we have been pathetic in our pash rush) they complete passes.

So, I'm still thinking. Sorry, no comfort.

myboynoah · 11-16-2008, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

How about this for a reason to help you:

It's the rivalry game. Throw all the stats, records and everything else out because the really have no bearing on the rivalry game.

I'm just treating this like the next game on the schedule.

Indy Coug · 11-16-2008, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archaea

Give me reasons for comfort...

No. You are truly incapable of being comforted.

ute4ever · 11-16-2008, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

No. You are truly incapable of being comforted.

I recall that two years ago, a certain Actuary comprised a formula that showed that BYU had a 91% probability of winning the game, or something like that. Dick Harmon was so excited that he drank a Yoo-Hoo and published it.

What is this year's probability?

Indy Coug · 11-16-2008, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ute4ever

I recall that two years ago, a certain Actuary comprised a formula that showed that BYU had a 91% probability of winning the game, or something like that. Dick Harmon was so excited that he drank a Yoo-Hoo and published it.

What is this year's probability?

Significantly less than 91%.

Brian · 11-16-2008, 10:00 PM

Look at the last two years.
All things being equal, BYU should have run away w/ both of those games.
But, emotion will make things unequal.

BTW, what happened to unga/pitta?

11-16-2008, 07:00 PM	#1
Archaea Assistant to the Regional Manager Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: The Orgasmatron Posts: 24,338	Give me reasons for comfort friends because as I evaluate the two teams, my Bayesian logic says Utah wins this game seven out of ten times. Utah has progressed over the season and BYU has tanked since the USU game, showing no improvement, but merely appeared to be hanging on. We have Unga, injured, and Pitta potentially injured. Our middle defense is very weak, weaker than we've ever had in a long time. Utah has two backs and some great receivers. I could see Utah lighting up the scoreboard and we not being able to keep pace. This defense seems as weak as Bronco's first season, so a bad defeat a la TCU is a distinct possibility. Junkie is there any reason for hope? Our offense has been sputtering, at times efficient but other times it's as if they can't walk and chew gum. It would be a treat to win this game, but I fully expect Utah to win by fourteen to twenty points and Whit will run up the score if he can to impress BCS voters. This game poses the worst scenario for BYU. __________________ Ἓν οἶδα ὅτι οὐδὲν οἶδα

11-16-2008, 07:27 PM	#2
il Padrino Ute Board Pinhead Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the basement of my house, Murray, Utah. Posts: 15,941	How about this for a reason to help you: It's the rivalry game. Throw all the stats, records and everything else out because the really have no bearing on the rivalry game. __________________ "The beauty of baseball is not having to explain it." - Chuck Shriver "This is now the joke that stupid people laugh at." - Christopher Hitchens on IQ jokes about GWB.

11-16-2008, 10:00 PM	#10
Brian Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Oak Ridge, TN Posts: 1,308	Look at the last two years. All things being equal, BYU should have run away w/ both of those games. But, emotion will make things unequal. BTW, what happened to unga/pitta? __________________ e^(i * pi) + 1 = 0 5 great numbers in one little equation.