Election Night Prediction

[Clark Addison]

Maybe I am just a pessimist, but I don't see this election being a slam dunk for Obama at all. Last I checked, most of the close states have undecideds of 4% to 10%. I really don't see this group breaking much towards Obama, for a couple of reasons.

1. For many people, I think "undecided" means that they don't want to admit they are not voting for Obama. This goes beyond the racial component people often talk about. If you are a Democrat, and you don't like Obama (because you loved Hillary, or whatever), you are going to be feeling some guilt (trust me on this, I know Democrats). You don't want to admit that you aren't going to vote for him, even in an anonymous poll, but once you get in the voting booth, it will be easier.

2. If you are truly undecided, I think you are going to get into the voting booth and tend to go with the "safe" choice, the guy with experience, who has been in Washington for years.

Feel free to call me an idiot if Obama ends up winning 40 states, but, whatever the result, I think McCain will do better than many people expect.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Clark Addison

Maybe I am just a pessimist, but I don't see this election being a slam dunk for Obama at all. Last I checked, most of the close states have undecideds of 4% to 10%. I really don't see this group breaking much towards Obama, for a couple of reasons.

1. For many people, I think "undecided" means that they don't want to admit they are not voting for Obama. This goes beyond the racial component people often talk about. If you are a Democrat, and you don't like Obama (because you loved Hillary, or whatever), you are going to be feeling some guilt (trust me on this, I know Democrats). You don't want to admit that you aren't going to vote for him, even in an anonymous poll, but once you get in the voting booth, it will be easier.

2. If you are truly undecided, I think you are going to get into the voting booth and tend to go with the "safe" choice, the guy with experience, who has been in Washington for years.

Feel free to call me an idiot if Obama ends up winning 40 states, but, whatever the result, I think McCain will do better than many people expect.

Still a damn loss.

Just pray that the Dems don't garner sixty senate seats, that would be a royal disaster and big ass buttfucking would begin in earnest. No regulation would be spared and no tax would cease to be increased. Please give us the power to filibuster.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Still a damn loss.

Just pray that the Dems don't garner sixty senate seats, that would be a royal disaster and buttfucking would begin in earnest.

As a mod, I'm afraid I'm going to have to ask you to edit your language.


This will not be a Reagan-Mondale style landslide, or even close. But I suppose in the end it doesn't matter what the margin is.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

As a mod, I'm afraid I'm going to have to ask you to edit your language.


This will not be a Reagan-Mondale style landslide, or even close. But I suppose in the end it doesn't matter what the margin is.

Better now?

[creekster]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Better now?

No, it's not.

[exUte]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Still a damn loss.

Just pray that the Dems don't garner sixty senate seats, that would be a royal disaster and big ass buttfucking would begin in earnest. No regulation would be spared and no tax would cease to be increased. Please give us the power to filibuster.

you must be confusing the prop 8 discussion with the presidential election thread.