Opening up drilling will have no impact

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by BYU71

Nope missed it. Could you provide the day they said that. I would appreciate it.

Many people have been saying demand is going down for weeks and yet nothing happened. Maybe the right people finally heard it.

So I guess it is a perception of supply and demand either way. You know OPEC saying useage is going down next year is a projection on the future as it pertains to supply and demand.

The cartel also predicted a drop in demand for OPEC crude next year to 31.2 million bpd from over 32.3 million bpd currently, leading to "a significant build in inventories" in 2009.

"Combined with increasing OPEC capacity, (this) should further ease market conditions and likely help moderate prices," the report said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715...s_080715113241

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

silly rabbit. the reason that gas was so expensive in other places was not because oil was more expensive for them on the market. It was because of huge taxes.

And yes, it is now even more hugely expensive in Europe.

This is only partially true. It has been more expensive in Europe also because of upstream costs.

Before we talk in great depth about oil, it would be great to hear your quals. I spent 3 years in oil and gas on the R&D side, covering both upstream and downstream development efforts, as well as some regulatory work in California, which has the most stringent standards in the country.

Your turn. Tell us all what you know about oil and gas besides that you live in Dallas.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

I did notice that drop in prices, 71, and the coincidence of the timing was not lost on me. In Irvine, the prices dropped from about 4.68 to about 4.38 in a few days immediately after the announcement. But I filled up this morning and the prices were creeping back up again....4.47.

Here is what has not been explained...perhaps you can enlighten...and I am not pulling your chain here......assuming that crude could be sold on the open market today, why wouldnt those drums simply be sold at open market prices? Are these companies going to give the US a discount? Also, do you envision a drop in demand for oil consumption in the near future? Without that drop, why would prices go down? If anything, isnt demand going to continue to rise?

Basically, the US is catching up to the cost of petrol everywhere else, where it has been super expensive for a long time. I doubt it will ever drop back down to where it was pre-Iraq war.

One thing I don't understand in the short term is the relationship of the cost of oil per barrell and the cost at the pump. Seems when prices go up, price at the pump goes up quickly. When the price drops, the price at the pump seems to come down more slowly.

If I understand your question correctly, I think the drums would be sold at the open market price. A gas station owner sells his gas based on replacement cost, not his orginal cost.

To me investing is all about anticipating the future. For instance, I shorted oil a while back because fundamentally I believed the price was inflated. I don't call that speculating as I thought I had sound reasons. Specualting to me is seeing a trend and jumping on the bandwagon without any fundamental reason, unless you call momentum a fundamental.

By the way I got a quick profit on that trade and took it. I guess I didn't believe in my fundamental scenario as much as I thought. If I had held on, I could have made a lot more.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

This is only partially true. It has been more expensive in Europe also because of upstream costs.

Before we talk in great depth about oil, it would be great to hear your quals. I spent 3 years in oil and gas on the R&D side, covering both upstream and downstream development efforts, as well as some regulatory work in California, which has the most stringent standards in the country.

Your turn. Tell us all what you know about oil and gas besides that you live in Dallas.

which makes your ignorance (along with 71's) even more astounding.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715...s_080715113241

Great. Bush moved it the first $5-6 and then OPEC helped it another $8-9.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

This is only partially true. It has been more expensive in Europe also because of upstream costs.

Before we talk in great depth about oil, it would be great to hear your quals. I spent 3 years in oil and gas on the R&D side, covering both upstream and downstream development efforts, as well as some regulatory work in California, which has the most stringent standards in the country.

Your turn. Tell us all what you know about oil and gas besides that you live in Dallas.

Haven't you been on this board long enough to know Waters is an expert in all areas. It comes by virtue of his big brain. Was that in the Wizard of Ozz??

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715...s_080715113241

Ah, this makes sense. meaning, you fundamental lack of understanding makes sense now...

This very link says that world oil demand will go up, now down. Only OPEC oil is predicting a slight slow down in demand. OPEC oil accounts for what....about 55-60% of our imported oil as of a year or so ago?

Why is OPEC oil predicting a slight surplus? Because the US is looking elsewhere to gets is oil, tired of getting gouged by OPEC.

So your link really doesnt support what you are trying to say. Also, you seem to not understand what OPEC is.

par for the course.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

Ah, this makes sense. meaning, you fundamental lack of understanding makes sense now...

This very link says that world oil demand will go up, now down. Only OPEC oil is predicting a slight slow down in demand. OPEC oil accounts for what....about 55-60% of our imported oil as of a year or so ago?

Why is OPEC oil predicting a slight surplus? Because the US is looking elsewhere to gets is oil, tired of getting gouged by OPEC.

So your link really doesnt support what you are trying to say. Also, you seem to not understand what OPEC is.

par for the course.

I didn't know that OPEC oil was more expensive than non-OPEC oil. Link?

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

Ah, this makes sense. meaning, you fundamental lack of understanding makes sense now...

This very link says that world oil demand will go up, now down. Only OPEC oil is predicting a slight slow down in demand. OPEC oil accounts for what....about 55-60% of our imported oil as of a year or so ago?

Why is OPEC oil predicting a slight surplus? Because the US is looking elsewhere to gets is oil, tired of getting gouged by OPEC.

So your link really doesnt support what you are trying to say. Also, you seem to not understand what OPEC is.

par for the course.

I am embarssed. I should have read the whole article like you did. I just assumed Waters maybe had a clue. Shame on me.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by BYU71

I am embarssed. I should have read the whole article like you did. I just assumed Waters maybe had a clue. Shame on me.

LOL. Moron.