Intrade Question

[Clark Addison]

I am no expert on prediction markets, and don't follow them that closely, but I noticed that last week Obama drifted down from around 88 to about 84, I'm guessing because of polls showing the gap had narrowed a bit (admittedly, 84 is still pretty high). Today, it has gone up to 90. Has something caused this, or is it simply a factor of it being so close to the election, that people think nothing can change?

And also, does anyone else feel that these types of markets are much more reactionary than people thought they would be when they started coming out? They seem to follow polls and general consensus, rather than being able to sniff out the leading indicators.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Clark Addison

I am no expert on prediction markets, and don't follow them that closely, but I noticed that last week Obama drifted down from around 88 to about 84, I'm guessing because of polls showing the gap had narrowed a bit (admittedly, 84 is still pretty high). Today, it has gone up to 90. Has something caused this, or is it simply a factor of it being so close to the election, that people think nothing can change?

And also, does anyone else feel that these types of markets are much more reactionary than people thought they would be when they started coming out? They seem to follow polls and general consensus, rather than being able to sniff out the leading indicators.

Seems to me they are very reactionary. The trend lines for the Republican VP pick are a good example.