Hawaii, SOS, and BCS - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

jay santos · 11-01-2007, 04:10 PM

I'm not too worried about whether or not Hawaii will make a BCS bowl. I think the rankings are pretty fair right now, though I wish they had stronger computer component, and if Hawaii makes it I think it will be probably because they deserve it.

Read my post here

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13183

on the fallacy of rating an undefeated team by the worst team they've beaten.

I ran Hawaii's schedule through a probability model I have set up to give probability of going undefeated. They have the toughest part of their schedule left with Fresno, Boise, Nevada, and Washington. I matched up probabilities with them to go undefeated with their entire 12 game schedule with theoretical rankings.

ranking, prob to go undefeated, expected total wins
#1, 83%, 11.8
#5, 74%, 11.7
#10, 50%, 11.4
#15, 40%, 11.2
#20, 30%, 10.9
#25, 21%, 10.7

So the way you can read this is that if Hawaii was truly the 10th best team, they'd have a 50% chance to go undefeated with their schedule this year, with 11.4 expected total wins.

I kinda think Hawaii will lose a game, but if they win out, I'll say they deserve to be in a BCS bowl, and depending on the matchup, they have a decent shot at showing well.

NorCal Cat · 11-02-2007, 08:18 PM

I will be very surprised if Hawaii goes undefeated. If they do, and go to a BCS game, they will get DESTROYED.

HuskyFreeNorthwest · 11-03-2007, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCal Cat

I will be very surprised if Hawaii goes undefeated. If they do, and go to a BCS game, they will get DESTROYED.

Yeah they could never hang with someone from the mighty ACC like Boston College, or the powerful Big East UCONN scares any team in the country. How about Kansas, the Big 12 is so tough.

We all hate the BCS, but at least we all buy into the hype also. These power conferences are just so much better than the rest of us. Much like the cheap BYU fan theory, even if there is no evidence to support it if you keep repeating it enough it kinda becomes true.

On a side note Over/under for Warriors wins in November 3.5. Under is the safer bet.

11-01-2007, 04:10 PM	#1
jay santos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,177	Hawaii, SOS, and BCS I'm not too worried about whether or not Hawaii will make a BCS bowl. I think the rankings are pretty fair right now, though I wish they had stronger computer component, and if Hawaii makes it I think it will be probably because they deserve it. Read my post here http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13183 on the fallacy of rating an undefeated team by the worst team they've beaten. I ran Hawaii's schedule through a probability model I have set up to give probability of going undefeated. They have the toughest part of their schedule left with Fresno, Boise, Nevada, and Washington. I matched up probabilities with them to go undefeated with their entire 12 game schedule with theoretical rankings. ranking, prob to go undefeated, expected total wins #1, 83%, 11.8 #5, 74%, 11.7 #10, 50%, 11.4 #15, 40%, 11.2 #20, 30%, 10.9 #25, 21%, 10.7 So the way you can read this is that if Hawaii was truly the 10th best team, they'd have a 50% chance to go undefeated with their schedule this year, with 11.4 expected total wins. I kinda think Hawaii will lose a game, but if they win out, I'll say they deserve to be in a BCS bowl, and depending on the matchup, they have a decent shot at showing well.

11-02-2007, 08:18 PM	#2
NorCal Cat Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Where do you think? Posts: 1,201	I will be very surprised if Hawaii goes undefeated. If they do, and go to a BCS game, they will get DESTROYED.