My prediction for Iowa

[hyrum]

Originally Posted by Tex

Democrat: Clinton
Republican: Romney

For no other reason, really, then it goes against the "conventional wisdom" pick of Obama and Huckabee.

The real loser tonight, regardless of the outcome, is likely going to be Guiliani who has totally lost any momentum he might have had.

I also hope that after tonight we can winnow the field of also-rans. This means you, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, etc.

Guliani never really invested in Iowa. He is compaigning in states like Florida, California, New York, etc, where there are large numbers of real convention delegates to be gained next month. The media has been focused on NH and Iowa, but there are just a few delegates are at stake. As you mention, these are make-or-break states for second-tier candidates, but I wouldn't expect to see a big shake up in the top 3-4 candidates.

[woot]

And speaking of Ron Paul, http://www.cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15530

[MikeWaters]

Edwards stands to most to gain with a win. I'm calling it for Edwards.

[Frank Ryan]

Originally Posted by hyrum

Guliani never really invested in Iowa. He is compaigning in states like Florida, California, New York, etc, where there are large numbers of real convention delegates to be gained next month. The media has been focused on NH and Iowa, but there are just a few delegates are at stake. As you mention, these are make-or-break states for second-tier candidates, but I wouldn't expect to see a big shake up in the top 3-4 candidates.

wasnt florida along with michigan stripped of its delegates?

[hyrum]

Originally Posted by Frank Ryan

wasnt florida along with michigan stripped of its delegates?

I believe their delegate counts were "fined" 50%. Still large numbers at stake there.

[hyrum]

Originally Posted by hyrum

I believe their delegate counts were "fined" 50%. Still large numbers at stake there.

Follow-up here are the numbers:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-Alloc.phtml

Note 57 from Florida after the sanction, 40 from Iowa. New Hampshire only 12 after 50% sanction. 30 from Michigan after sanction.

Iowa is not sanctioned because the actual delegate selection doesn't happen today, it formally occurs in June. One can only guess from the description where the assignment of delegates to Presidential contenders actually happens among the caucus, the County, District and State conventions. Here are the rules:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IA-R.phtml