Finally: A serious troop withdrawal analysis.

[UtahDan]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

I have been saying for a long time that before we withdraw from Iraq, we ought to have a serious conversation about that would look like and what the ramifications would be. It looks like the military has been thinking about exactly this. VERY interesting read.

I haven't fully absorbed it but I find the idea of withdrawing to Kuwait and what would likely be the new Kurdistan an interesting idea. The concern then is that the Iranians and Saudis then fight a proxy war in the remaining area as the Sunnis and Shiites duke it out. Since they seem to want to mostly kill each other that might not be bad. The down sides are that we lose face for welching on our committments to the current Iraqi government with far, far reaching implications and also that one of the new states or both become pre-invasion Afghanistan redux in terms of Al Queda.

No matter what we do, someone will say that they said so all along and some else will say that the outcome was predictable. As we look into our crystal balls to figure out what will occur (and it is very murky at this point) we ought to do it with some sense of self consciousness in light of the fact that everything that has gone wrong to date should have been "obvious." Nothing here is obvious though with the benefit of hindsight someone invariably claims that it is and was.

[FMCoug]

Originally Posted by UtahDan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

I have been saying for a long time that before we withdraw from Iraq, we ought to have a serious conversation about that would look like and what the ramifications would be. It looks like the military has been thinking about exactly this. VERY interesting read.

I haven't fully absorbed it but I find the idea of withdrawing to Kuwait and what would likely be the new Kurdistan an interesting idea. The concern then is that the Iranians and Saudis then fight a proxy war in the remaining area as the Sunnis and Shiites duke it out. Since they seem to want to mostly kill each other that might not be bad. The down sides are that we lose face for welching on our committments to the current Iraqi government with far, far reaching implications and also that one of the new states or both become pre-invasion Afghanistan redux in terms of Al Queda.

No matter what we do, someone will say that they said so all along and some else will say that the outcome was predictable. As we look into our crystal balls to figure out what will occur (and it is very murky at this point) we ought to do it with some sense of self consciousness in light of the fact that everything that has gone wrong to date should have been "obvious." Nothing here is obvious though with the benefit of hindsight someone invariably claims that it is and was.

This is the crux of the whole issue. Anybody with half a brain can see the invasion of Iraq was a mistake in hindsight. But the real question becomes, what now? You can't just hit the undo button as some of the anti-war types would like us to.

[FMCoug]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

I agree with everything you said, except that I believe the predicament we find ourselves in now was "obvious" at the time of invasion.

To me, this discussion is an exercise in futility. The fact that it is the center of so much of the debate just illustrates that EVERYBODY knows it's a hellish situation we're in now. Nobody has a solution. So they choose to talk about the past instead. When in reality, it's not relevant going forward. The real issue is what to do now.