On Stars

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by jay santos

Do you feel our recruiting classes are drastically underrated due to the stars systems, honestly?

Of course it's not perfect, but a reasonably logical fellow like yourself that understands data and stats, I have a hard time believing you buy into it.

We go after guys in major markets all the time. Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, NoCal, SoCal, Texas, Denver. Utah is getting more and more attention from these services.

When we do go after a four star recruit we butt heads with USC and Florida. When we go after a low end 4 star or high end three star, we go up against the Oregons and Colorados. To buy into this concept that we actually do have better recruiting classes than these guys, you would have to believe that every other coaching staff is stupid and lazy and we're the only smart ones.

I'm saying that we recruit enough players from enough lower profile regions that it can result in enough under ranking to make the difference between 30th or 40th and 60th. Certainly the large discrepancy between recruiting rankings and performance based national top 25 rankings lends at least a little credibility to the notion that many BYU players are not being adequately evaluated.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

I'm saying that we recruit enough players from enough lower profile regions that it can result in enough under ranking to make the difference between 30th or 40th and 60th. Certainly the large discrepancy between recruiting rankings and performance based national top 25 rankings lends at least a little credibility to the notion that many BYU players are not being adequately evaluated.

This is an interesting question.

On offense, we do it with the OL and QB. Those positions we recruit as well as any top 25/30 program. When we get a highly recruited WR like Collie or Jacobsen it's very noticeable.

On defense, it appears that we definitely get more out of the players than the stars would suggest. But if you look at our highly recruited D players, they do stand out. Manaia Brown was the most highly recruited D-linemen the past several years and he clearly stood out, though he was injured a lot. Nixon and Cam Jensen were probably the most highly recruited LB's the last several years, and outside of Kehl, they were the two best.

How many of our walk-on/one star/two star guys make it to the NFL compared to our three star and above guys? It would be a good study.

[Spaz]

Originally Posted by jay santos

This is an interesting question.

On offense, we do it with the OL and QB. Those positions we recruit as well as any top 25/30 program. When we get a highly recruited WR like Collie or Jacobsen it's very noticeable.

On defense, it appears that we definitely get more out of the players than the stars would suggest. But if you look at our highly recruited D players, they do stand out. Manaia Brown was the most highly recruited D-linemen the past several years and he clearly stood out, though he was injured a lot. Nixon and Cam Jensen were probably the most highly recruited LB's the last several years, and outside of Kehl, they were the two best.

How many of our walk-on/one star/two star guys make it to the NFL compared to our three star and above guys? It would be a good study.

Personally, I don't care much about who makes it to the NFL. I care about results in college...which as Ty Detmer showed us are two vastly different things.


The fact is, the USC's of the world will ALWAYS have ALL of their recruits evaluated as much as possible, while the BYU's of the world will ALWAYS have recruits that are evaluated based on less than a minute of dedicated evaluation. Would some of BYU's players receive an extra star or two with proper evaluation? I tend to think so. Enough to make up a large part of the gap towards being a top-25 recruiting class.


And THEN, you have to face the inherent bias in the system. I am not one who subscribes to the BCS conspiracy theory, but the nature of the situation DOES lead to inherent bias towards the top BCS programs.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Spaz

Personally, I don't care much about who makes it to the NFL. I care about results in college...which as Ty Detmer showed us are two vastly different things.

Precisely. Detmer was a 5 star (or at the very least a high 4 star) QB, had those kind of rankings existed back then. That ranking should be completely independent of his projected NFL future.

[Spaz]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Precisely. Detmer was a 5 star (or at the very least a high 4 star) QB, had those kind of rankings existed back then. That ranking should be completely independent of his projected NFL future.

Granted, those who ARE projected to make the NFL are likely to make a significant impact at college...

It's just that there are certainly those who likely WON'T make it in the NFL that nonetheless WILL make a significant impact in college. And I don't think those individuals will be fairly evaluated by recruiting experts.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Spaz

Personally, I don't care much about who makes it to the NFL. I care about results in college...which as Ty Detmer showed us are two vastly different things.


The fact is, the USC's of the world will ALWAYS have ALL of their recruits evaluated as much as possible, while the BYU's of the world will ALWAYS have recruits that are evaluated based on less than a minute of dedicated evaluation. Would some of BYU's players receive an extra star or two with proper evaluation? I tend to think so. Enough to make up a large part of the gap towards being a top-25 recruiting class.


And THEN, you have to face the inherent bias in the system. I am not one who subscribes to the BCS conspiracy theory, but the nature of the situation DOES lead to inherent bias towards the top BCS programs.

So, we usually get fierce competition on a 4/5 star recruit. We get stiff competition for top tier three star recruits. We get little competition for a lot of 2 star recruits. Are all the other coaching staffs just really stupid, falling for the dumb star system?

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Spaz

Granted, those who ARE projected to make the NFL are likely to make a significant impact at college...

It's just that there are certainly those who likely WON'T make it in the NFL that nonetheless WILL make a significant impact in college. And I don't think those individuals will be fairly evaluated by recruiting experts.

Let's not confuse the NFL issue. As Indy says, Detmer would have been a 5 star recruit, even though he didn't have NFL size. Star rankings are done on college potential not NFL potential.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by jay santos

Are all the other coaching staffs just really stupid, falling for the dumb star system?

Perhaps, the fact that top schools are recruiting them causes their ranking of a few players to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"If USC is recruiting so-and-so, then they must be REALLY good..."

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Perhaps, the fact that top schools are recruiting them causes their ranking of a few players to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"If USC is recruiting so-and-so, then they must be REALLY good..."

Indy makes a plausible point.

If BYU recruits significantly enough in low profile areas, it appears their could be a detectable or measurable dip in the actual quality of BYU recruits. And the drop from 30 to 50 makes sense. Does it mean BYU has a top ten recruiting season? Probably not, but given that BYU finishes in or near the top twenty, it must mean BYU has better than top 50 talent.

And stars are skewed by who's recruiting them. There are some measureables but somethings for kids closely grouped are based on national profile.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Perhaps, the fact that top schools are recruiting them causes their ranking of a few players to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"If USC is recruiting so-and-so, then they must be REALLY good..."

So you buy into the theory that Bronco and his staff are better talent evaluators than everyone else? Remember, Utah thinks the same about KW and even Utah State thinks the same about their coach. We all thought Crowton got over on the stars sytem and so did Lavell.