BYU is the only mid-major that is really a BCS

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Again, you presume that any change is better than the status quo. Jay's "analysis" is a start, but his assumptions are way too optimistic, IMO, and don't include any real risk analysis.

Of course I will grant you that their are significant risks. And that's why I've said that there would have to be support from wealthy boosters. Which would be an insurance policy.

If Tom Holmoe said he was looking into models of BYU going independent and joining other conferences, that in itself, is half the battle!

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

1. So if BYU goes independent, what are the odds they get an attractive TV deal with someone?

2. If BYU goes independent and has 3 straight losing seasons again, what happens to that TV contract?

3. If BYU goes independent and has 3 straight losing seasons again, what happens to their shared bowl revenue? Shared NCAA tournament revenue?

4. Will BYU be able to adequately fill their home game scheduling needs (both in quality and number of opponents)?

5. Certainly with the lack of guarantees represented by #s 1 to 4, what makes you think the Board of Trustees will consider this a justifiable risk to take going independent?


P.S. You didn't really answer my questions earlier, so why don't you answer those first before answering these newer questions.

1. The TV deal, which is much more lucrative than it used to be provides BYU < $1M per year. We could make that in one game with a home game against a Notre Dame. We could make double that putting the rest of the games on Channel 16 or 24 just in Utah. Any TV deal as an independent would blow away what we have now.

2. Two years removed from losing season three years in a row, BYU demand is as high as ever. The demand is there and it's not going away that easy.

3. We don't get shared bowl revenue--maybe a few hundred K at the most in a good year. Shared NCAA tournament revenue is a bigger deal.

4. Absolutely. Schedule would go something like this: 3-4 Pac 10's, 3-4 other BCS conference schools, 3-4 old MWC/other non BCS, Utah, Utah State, non D-1A. Beautiful thing.

5. BoT wouldn't even approve a Thanksgiving evening game with Utah that would have made bank, so obviously getting BoT to approve a big move would be near impossible.

Bottom line: financially it's a boon for football. Exposure wise it's a boon for football. It would be a killer for other sports unless they could get conference affiliation.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

You didn't answer my 3 original questions. There used to be a substantial group of quality independent football programs (eg. Penn State). Now, there are only 4; one of which is independent because the Big East kicked them out for sucking forever (Temple). What happened to all the rest? If independence is such a viable form of existence, why is it virtually extinct?

Notre Dame is unlike any other program with their own TV contract on a major network. There are probably only a couple of programs with a fanbase that can even approach Notre Dame's.

Army and Navy aren't exactly a shining success that would lure BYU into independence.

It seems to me that your primary modus operandi (sports, political, etc.) is that if the status quo isn't satisfactory then ANY change is going to be an improvement. That just isn't logical. I have yet to see anyone put together a solid business case why BYU going independent presents a high probability of success.

I guarantee if Penn State's choice was independence or the MWC, they would go independent. Non-BCS status is killing us more and more every year.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by jay santos

I guarantee if Penn State's choice was independence or the MWC, they would go independent. Non-BCS status is killing us more and more every year.

That's not the question, nor was it the choice that Penn State was presented with. The question is why has independence virtually ceased to exist? What were the financial drivers involved? Why has no one willingly gone from a conference affiliation to independent status (is Army the sole exception)?

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Again, you presume that any change is better than the status quo. Jay's "analysis" is a start, but his assumptions are way too optimistic, IMO, and don't include any real risk analysis.

Indy where's the risk? In the 1-26 basketball season, BYU got better TV ratings than Utah did (#9 all time program just ask them).

BYU interest is exploding. Coming off three losing seasons, we sold out the Vegas Bowl two years in a row. Even during those three losing seasons and a bogged down by a MWC schedule we had home games against USC and Notre Dame to market. Either one of those could have funded the entire MWC TV budget split.

The risk is in the non-football sports. And that's a big risk. There's virtually no risk in football.

The story here is whether or not a huge financial and exposure benefit in football is worth risk in the other sports. It almost seems silly to worry about risk to the football program when we get so little from the conference currently.

[MikeWaters]

It's crazy to think we get less than $1 million per year, and the Big Least teams get $10 million per year.

Is BYU so different than those Big East teams? Sure Wyoming, CSU, Air Force etc. are absolute nobodies. But BYU?

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

It's crazy to think we get less than $1 million per year, and the Big Least teams get $10 million per year.

Is BYU so different than those Big East teams? Sure Wyoming, CSU, Air Force etc. are absolute nobodies. But BYU?

Well, $$ talks. That BYU's dollar amounts are closer to those of Wyoming, CSU and Utah says a lot.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

Well, $$ talks. That BYU's dollar amounts are closer to those of Wyoming, CSU and Utah says a lot.

It's because we are subsidizing the other teams. We are the flagship of the MWC, hands down.