This year may prove the selection committee hates BYU

[Goatnapper'96]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Don't be stupid. The problem is that BYU has averaged 4 seeds lower than their RPI would indicate over their last 4 appearances, including a record 7 seed drop in 2002-2003. Furthermore, the 5 vs 12 upset rate is completely overstated. 5 seeds win 71% of the time, which is more often than 6 seeds (69%) and less often than 4 seeds (79%), which you would naturally expect.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

Using the 2002-2003 model is why I am really confident BYU will be seeded where most indicators would gauge them. The reason BYU got a 12 seed in 2003 was because BYU could not be seeded higher than Utah, who I think got a 10 seed. If BYU had beaten Utah at home that year I bet they would have been an 8 or 9 seed. Utah and BYU tied for the MWC regular season championship and Utah had swept BYU. Further, BYU had no real signature wins or decent road wins. I don't think BYU beat anyone in the top 100 rpi, perhaps ASU, on the road. But what screwed BYU was that there was no argument that BYU should be seeded higher than Utah, in fact the argument was BYU should be lower.

This year BYU has a strong conference record. They have a late season solid road win over a top 50 RPI UNM and a signature OOC win over Louisiville. IMO, BYU has checked every block on the resume requirement list. Lets see how the MWC tourney develops, but if BYU wins two games I think they are a 7 or 8 seed. If they win out, I think they will be a six and perhaps 5 depending on how other teams do in their tourneys.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Spaz

I believe BYU does deserve a 5 seed. It partly depends on what happens in conference tourneys, but their resume is pretty damned good.

What is BYU's RPI? That is a big key to seeding. If they're not in the Top 20-25 RPI, it would be really tough to justify a 5 seed.

[livecoug]

BYU is currently 21 in RPI.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

What is BYU's RPI? That is a big key to seeding. If they're not in the Top 20-25 RPI, it would be really tough to justify a 5 seed.

21st

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

If they win the MWC tourney, that would put them 28-6 overall, 16 of their last 17 and an RPI in the top 20. A 5 seed would theoretically be possible, but I wouldn't venture to say it is likely.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

21st

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

If they win the MWC tourney, that would put them 28-6 overall, 16 of their last 17 and an RPI in the top 20. A 5 seed would theoretically be possible, but I wouldn't venture to say it is likely.

That would give them a good argument for a 5 seed, though I agree with Goatnapper in that it would depend where other teams with a similar spot in the RPI rankings.

It should be interesting to see what happens. I'd like to see 3 teams from the MWC get in, as there are really only 3 deserving teams - BYU, UNM and UNLV.

[ute4ever]

In the 1998 tourney, Utah finished the regular season ranked 2nd in the polls but got a 3 seed. They should have been a 1 seed, damnit. They should have been a 1 when they beat Arizona and a 1 when they beat North Carolina.

All of that talk about Cinderella was an insult!!

If they had been in home colors and Kentucky had been in road colors, they would have won!!

[SeattleUte]

You know, Goat, if BYU wins the tournament, it would have had the kind of year that used to draw a at least a 4 seed for a Majerus team. See, for example, Doleac's freshman/Van Horn's sophomore year. (They were dismantled by a lower seeded Miss. State in round 2.) But I doubt BYU/Rose will ever have that kind of star power and political muscle.

[Goatnapper'96]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

You know, Goat, if BYU wins the tournament, it would have had the kind of year that used to draw a at least a 4 seed for a Majerus team. See, for example, Doleac's freshman/Van Horn's sophomore year. (They were dismantled by a lower seeded Miss. State in round 2.) But I doubt BYU/Rose will ever have that kind of star power and political muscle.

I think if BYU beats Boise State on the road this year and wins the MWC tourney, they would have been in the running for a 4 seed. At least a strong case for a 5 even with the pathetic showings against Wake Forest and UNLV.

Time will tell if Rose can develop that type of clout and respect. He needs a couple of postseason runs, sweet 16, to develop that type of clout. If people see you there they begin to think you belong there. Probability is Rose will ride this zenith in BYU hoops to a better job. I think that BYU wins one game this year and then next year wins 2 or 3...then Rose will ride on out of town.

If he does get BYU into the sweet 16, I will then believe he was deserving of coach of the year. I mean that, too!

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Goatnapper'96

Time will tell if Rose can develop that type of clout and respect. He needs a couple of postseason runs, sweet 16, to develop that type of clout. If people see you there they begin to think you belong there.

This is true.

The NCAA tournament is not a fake-it-'til-you-make-it kind of thing.

[ERCougar]

No way they get a 5 seed...even if they win the conference tourney.

The problem is, they've choked away too many NCAA tourney games. Once they make a Sweet 16, they'll get the respect. They haven't earned it.