I don't get the lack of computer love for BYU BB - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

jay santos · 02-09-2007, 06:54 PM

My favorite ranking for college football is the avg computer model ranking at http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

The basketball equivalent is

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

It's only updated through Sunday, but I don't get why they have BYU so low at #42. Sagarin has BYU at #48 updated through last night's games.

RPI has BYU at #23. We know that's a flawed, simple formula.

I have BYU at #28. I had them up in the 50's just a couple weeks ago, but after the wins over UNLV and AFA and road wins at Utah and Wyoming, they have shot up in my computer model.

One interesting comparison between my model and Sagarin.

Clemson 19-5 Sagarin SOS #34, Santos SOS #45
Southern Illinois Sagarin SOS #5, Santos SOS #6

Clemson has a slightly higher MOV, but not too significant.

I have Clemson ranked #20, Southern Illinois #10
Sagarin has Clemson #14, Southern Illinois #21

mpfunk · 02-09-2007, 07:52 PM

I am not going to pretend to know the methodology of any of these rankings, but I think a ranking of high 30's to the mid to high 40's is about right for BYU right now.

I really think at this point AFA is proving themselves to be a paper tiger, and the conference is going to come down to UNLV and BYU. My gut says that BYU ends up winning it, and I really hate my gut right now.

creekster · 02-09-2007, 08:00 PM

I'm not too excited about my gut either, but it has nothing to do with BYU BB.

jay santos · 02-09-2007, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpfunk

I am not going to pretend to know the methodology of any of these rankings, but I think a ranking of high 30's to the mid to high 40's is about right for BYU right now.

I really think at this point AFA is proving themselves to be a paper tiger, and the conference is going to come down to UNLV and BYU. My gut says that BYU ends up winning it, and I really hate my gut right now.

Well this is strictly a computer methodology question. I tend to believe that about AFA, but the computer doesn't know whether they are a paper tiger or not.

Also, here is my theory on AFA, which also is my theory on some Roger Reid teams. Teams that are under-athetic and over-coached do damage earlier in the season, but over the length of the season undisiciplined, athletic teams get a little smarter and more disciplined so the edge the latter teams have on them dimishes.

Goatnapper'96 · 02-09-2007, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpfunk

I am not going to pretend to know the methodology of any of these rankings, but I think a ranking of high 30's to the mid to high 40's is about right for BYU right now.

I really think at this point AFA is proving themselves to be a paper tiger, and the conference is going to come down to UNLV and BYU. My gut says that BYU ends up winning it, and I really hate my gut right now.

I agree. BYU beats TCU, sweeps the homestand of CSU and UNM, goes on the road to lose a tough one in San Diego and then beats the Flyboys on their senior nite in Colorado Springs.

Then the Y comes home and secures the OCC in front of 24000 wholesome rowdies..well check that I am going so make that 23,999 wholesome rowdies and the mormon equivalent of Andrew Dice Clay, by beating Utah by about 25 in the Marriott Center.

mpfunk · 02-09-2007, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

Well this is strictly a computer methodology question. I tend to believe that about AFA, but the computer doesn't know whether they are a paper tiger or not.

Also, here is my theory on AFA, which also is my theory on some Roger Reid teams. Teams that are under-athetic and over-coached do damage earlier in the season, but over the length of the season undisiciplined, athletic teams get a little smarter and more disciplined so the edge the latter teams have on them dimishes.

I think that is actually a very solid theory. Here is another theory specific to this years AFA team. Bzdelik has the flyboys playing a more up-tempo style. AFA doesn't go very deep, and are not extremely athletic. I think they are a little worn out at this point.

Indy Coug · 02-09-2007, 08:54 PM

Does it have anything to do with more recent results getting or not getting more weight than early season results?

jay santos · 02-09-2007, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Does it have anything to do with more recent results getting or not getting more weight than early season results?

Mine doesn't have that aspect. If other models did, it would only help BYU, I would think.

pelagius · 02-09-2007, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

Mine doesn't have that aspect. If other models did, it would only help BYU, I would think.

I would only be speculating, but I would guess that your methodology is being affected less by extreme observations. Since, Sagarin is basically a least squares methodology (at least the MOV (predictor) component is), Lamar could end up being a very influential observation. I would think a rating system that took a quantile regression approach would rank BYU higher.

RockyBalboa · 02-09-2007, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius

I would only be speculating, but I would guess that your methodology is being affected less by extreme observations. Since, Sagarin is basically a least squares methodology (at least the MOV (predictor) component is), Lamar could end up being a very influential observation. I would think a rating system that took a quantile regression approach would rank BYU higher.

I have no idea what you just said.

02-09-2007, 06:54 PM	#1
jay santos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,177	I don't get the lack of computer love for BYU BB My favorite ranking for college football is the avg computer model ranking at http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm The basketball equivalent is http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm It's only updated through Sunday, but I don't get why they have BYU so low at #42. Sagarin has BYU at #48 updated through last night's games. RPI has BYU at #23. We know that's a flawed, simple formula. I have BYU at #28. I had them up in the 50's just a couple weeks ago, but after the wins over UNLV and AFA and road wins at Utah and Wyoming, they have shot up in my computer model. One interesting comparison between my model and Sagarin. Clemson 19-5 Sagarin SOS #34, Santos SOS #45 Southern Illinois Sagarin SOS #5, Santos SOS #6 Clemson has a slightly higher MOV, but not too significant. I have Clemson ranked #20, Southern Illinois #10 Sagarin has Clemson #14, Southern Illinois #21

02-09-2007, 07:52 PM	#2
mpfunk Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 2,619	I am not going to pretend to know the methodology of any of these rankings, but I think a ranking of high 30's to the mid to high 40's is about right for BYU right now. I really think at this point AFA is proving themselves to be a paper tiger, and the conference is going to come down to UNLV and BYU. My gut says that BYU ends up winning it, and I really hate my gut right now.

02-09-2007, 08:00 PM	#3
creekster Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: the far corner of my mind Posts: 8,711	I'm not too excited about my gut either, but it has nothing to do with BYU BB. __________________ Sorry for th e tpyos.

02-09-2007, 08:54 PM	#7
Indy Coug Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Between Iraq and a hard place Posts: 7,569	Does it have anything to do with more recent results getting or not getting more weight than early season results?