I don't get the lack of computer love for BYU BB - Page 2 - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

jay santos · 02-09-2007, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius

I would only be speculating, but I would guess that your methodology is being affected less by extreme observations. Since, Sagarin is basically a least squares methodology (at least the MOV (predictor) component is), Lamar could end up being a very influential observation. I would think a rating system that took a quantile regression approach would rank BYU higher.

I like that approach better. Most of what I do for work is very rudimentary analysis, but if I need a simple correlation tool, I'll take least abs values over least squares.

My model, like I said before, is not a true statistical model. It's a formula based, iterative model, but it's usually pretty close to Sagarin and other well known models.

pelagius · 02-09-2007, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

I like that approach better. Most of what I do for work is very rudimentary analysis, but if I need a simple correlation tool, I'll take least abs values over least squares.

I'm not a zealot for LAV, but I think in this context one can make a pretty good case for it.

All-American · 02-09-2007, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpfunk

I am not going to pretend to know the methodology of any of these rankings, but I think a ranking of high 30's to the mid to high 40's is about right for BYU right now.

I really think at this point AFA is proving themselves to be a paper tiger, and the conference is going to come down to UNLV and BYU. My gut says that BYU ends up winning it, and I really hate my gut right now.

You know, most people would probably agree with you.

We all hate your guts.

ute4ever · 02-09-2007, 11:37 PM

So what if BYU played well against SDSU and the like. The MWC is home to 8 of 9 teams that cannot win in the postseason. I don't understand why wins against Wyoming and UNLV should make a lick of difference in the magical world of computer rankings.

Come March, Air Force and BYU will make the dance and lose in the first round. UNLV will win an NIT game on their home floor, and then travel out east and lose around the same time their jet lands.

And that will be that.

And Cougarboard will be full of cries that BYU deserved to be a 7 or 8 seed, didn't the selection committee see how well they handled Colorado State?

RockyBalboa · 02-10-2007, 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ute4ever

So what if BYU played well against SDSU and the like. The MWC is home to 8 of 9 teams that cannot win in the postseason. I don't understand why wins against Wyoming and UNLV should make a lick of difference in the magical world of computer rankings.

Come March, Air Force and BYU will make the dance and lose in the first round. UNLV will win an NIT game on their home floor, and then travel out east and lose around the same time their jet lands.

And that will be that.

And Cougarboard will be full of cries that BYU deserved to be a 7 or 8 seed, didn't the selection committee see how well they handled Colorado State?

What's your rationale for UNLV not making the NCAA tourney? Is it that you don't think the selection committee will take 3 MWC Teams?

They have before.

jay santos · 02-10-2007, 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ute4ever

So what if BYU played well against SDSU and the like. The MWC is home to 8 of 9 teams that cannot win in the postseason. I don't understand why wins against Wyoming and UNLV should make a lick of difference in the magical world of computer rankings.

Come March, Air Force and BYU will make the dance and lose in the first round. UNLV will win an NIT game on their home floor, and then travel out east and lose around the same time their jet lands.

And that will be that.

And Cougarboard will be full of cries that BYU deserved to be a 7 or 8 seed, didn't the selection committee see how well they handled Colorado State?

And Ute fans will be talking about what? women's gymnastics?

Just because Utah's no good this year, doesn't mean it's not a good year for the conference. UNLV, AFA, and BYU are all virtual locks at this point. NCAA doesn't always seed by RPI but they almost always select teams by the RPI.

If UNLV doesn't win the MWC tourney, then BYU will. If BYU wins it, they will have an RPI in the teens, with two other MWC teams that will all be top 30 RPI. We should get no lower than a 5 seed in that case but I see no way that it goes above an 8 seed in that case.

I'm not predicting a BYU win in the tourney just yet, but at this point, it looks like we have a good chance to have a first round game where we are favored--even if we dont have the top seed.

All-American · 02-10-2007, 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ute4ever

The MWC is home to 8 of 9 teams that cannot win in the postseason.

I call that any team that doesn't win during the season can't talk about winning in the postseason.

02-09-2007, 11:37 PM	#14
ute4ever I must not tell lies Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,103	So what if BYU played well against SDSU and the like. The MWC is home to 8 of 9 teams that cannot win in the postseason. I don't understand why wins against Wyoming and UNLV should make a lick of difference in the magical world of computer rankings. Come March, Air Force and BYU will make the dance and lose in the first round. UNLV will win an NIT game on their home floor, and then travel out east and lose around the same time their jet lands. And that will be that. And Cougarboard will be full of cries that BYU deserved to be a 7 or 8 seed, didn't the selection committee see how well they handled Colorado State? Last edited by ute4ever; 02-09-2007 at 11:40 PM.