Vaccine - autism link? - Page 2 - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

SoonerCoug · 03-12-2008, 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoCalCoug

Which is still a link, correct?

No, it's not a link.

To establish a link, you need a larger sample size.

Think about it this way...

If you have cancer and go on chemo and get better, does that mean that the chemo made you get better? Maybe. Maybe not. It might be that the cancer spontaneously went away. If you don't get better, it's possible that the chemo made things even worse. The only way to know whether a particular drug makes people better or worse is to look at many, many patients and to have appropriate controls.

The reason doctors bled people (in the dark ages of medicine) for so many years is because people "got better" or felt like they got better. This isn't evidence-based medicine. There was no link between bleeding and getting better, but people believed there was a link--and that's because they weren't being scientific. It was just faith and personal testimonials. It wasn't until people started applying real science to medicine that things really started improving.

It's like that "Head-on" stuff on TV. That's just wax, but people swear by it.

Speculating that a vaccine aggravated a condition in a single patient is just speculation. It's not scientific--it's guesswork.

Is it possible that a vaccine caused autism in a single patient somewhere on the earth at some point in history? It's possible. But you can't prove that with a single patient.

ERCougar · 03-12-2008, 02:21 AM

I'm open to listening to arguments that the MMR vaccine causes autism. I'll listen to the first parent who can provide some sort of plausible mechanism by which this could occur.

Still waiting...

Until I hear that, along with some decent study showing an increased prevalence among vaccinated kids, I will consider the link about as strong as that between water and cancer.

marsupial · 03-12-2008, 02:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

what's the alternative to vaccines?

I understand tweaking the vaccine preparation and perhaps lopping off a vaccine or two deemed less serious.

What's the alternative?

If you can't come up with an alternative, then it is your public duty to get your kids vaccinated.

Homeschooling.

BarbaraGordon · 03-12-2008, 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoonerCoug

No, it's not a link.

Well, you have to admit it is a causal link for that one person, or maybe even for some small subset of people. It's just not an explanation for the phenomenon.

I get headaches if I eat splenda. There's a causal relationship for me personally. But no one would suggest that splenda itself is the cause of the worldwide headache epidemic.

SoonerCoug · 03-12-2008, 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Well, you have to admit it is a causal link for that one person, or maybe even for some small subset of people. It's just not an explanation for the phenomenon.

So, if someone takes chemo and their cancer goes away, do I have to admit that this is a causal link? No. It's just a correlation.

MikeWaters · 03-12-2008, 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Well, you have to admit it is a causal link for that one person, or maybe even for some small subset of people. It's just not an explanation for the phenomenon.

I get headaches if I eat splenda. There's a causal relationship for me personally. But no one would suggest that splenda itself is the cause of the worldwide headache epidemic.

Soonercoug is right.

A case report is the weakest form of epidemiological evidence.

When the tribesman stopped praying to his idol, and it didn't rain that year, and then the rest of the villagers killed the tribesman, and it rained the next year...that is a case report.

BarbaraGordon · 03-12-2008, 02:29 PM

I read of a case several years ago where it was fairly clearly demonstrated to be the cause for one girl. But I understand your point, that without the ability to either repeatedly test that hypothesis in the same host to prove the vaccine as her individual cause, or to alternately test the hypothesis on a large population to prove it as a general cause, it's impossible to conclude with any scientific validity that the vaccine and the autistic manifestation are related.

Personally, I think it's sad that there are those who continue to perpetuate this myth that parents are somehow responsible for their kids' autism, when medical research indicates that this is not the case.

Experts are apparently even questioning why there was a payout in the case disclosed this week, since the girl carried a mitochondrial defect that more likely was the primary cause of her problems, and more than likely would have manifested itself on its own eventually.

SoonerCoug · 03-12-2008, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

I read of a case several years ago where it was fairly clearly demonstrated to be the cause for ONE girl.

Impossible. You can't prove causality with one person.

03-12-2008, 02:21 AM	#12
ERCougar Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,589	I'm open to listening to arguments that the MMR vaccine causes autism. I'll listen to the first parent who can provide some sort of plausible mechanism by which this could occur. Still waiting... Until I hear that, along with some decent study showing an increased prevalence among vaccinated kids, I will consider the link about as strong as that between water and cancer.

03-12-2008, 02:29 PM	#17
BarbaraGordon Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Gotham City Posts: 7,157	I read of a case several years ago where it was fairly clearly demonstrated to be the cause for one girl. But I understand your point, that without the ability to either repeatedly test that hypothesis in the same host to prove the vaccine as her individual cause, or to alternately test the hypothesis on a large population to prove it as a general cause, it's impossible to conclude with any scientific validity that the vaccine and the autistic manifestation are related. Personally, I think it's sad that there are those who continue to perpetuate this myth that parents are somehow responsible for their kids' autism, when medical research indicates that this is not the case. Experts are apparently even questioning why there was a payout in the case disclosed this week, since the girl carried a mitochondrial defect that more likely was the primary cause of her problems, and more than likely would have manifested itself on its own eventually.