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Old 10-22-2012, 04:14 PM   #11
ute4ever
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UPDATE

Two weeks left. Obama's probability of winning is up 1.6 from a week ago to 67.6%. Although most say that he narrowly "won" the second debate, he not receive nearly the same bounce as Romney the week before.

The electoral forecast is 288 Obama, 250 Romney, an Obama -1 from last week.

The only change in the swing states is North Carolina is now likely Romney. Pennsylvania has suddenly been added as the tenth swing state, and debuts as likely Obama.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Lastly, whomever "wins" tonight's debate will likely again be whomever has waxed so cold at telling lies that it is better presented as his second nature. See this fact-check analysis of the second debate from the Annenberg Public Policy Center:

http://factcheck.org/2012/10/factche...ofstra-debate/
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:19 PM   #12
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I'm not sure a foreign policy debate matters much, other than style and perception of leadership.

For example, I don't think the Libya colossal F-up matters much to Americans (sadly). Obama can lie through his teeth and that's gonna work.
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Old 10-22-2012, 06:03 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeWaters View Post
I'm not sure a foreign policy debate matters much, other than style and perception of leadership.
Agreed, however few people expect them to stick to foreign policy. Each "answer" will be 10% vaguely addressing the question and 90% trash talking one another on unrelated matters.

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Originally Posted by MikeWaters View Post
Both parties can lie through their teeth and that's gonna work.
Agreed again.
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Old 10-29-2012, 02:52 PM   #14
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UPDATE

One week left, and there was an upswing for Obama since last Monday. Presently his probability of winning is 74.6% (+7.0), with 297 electoral votes (+9).

A natural disaster is headed towards the East Coast. Certainly Romney's focus group is working overtime to determine the best way to criticize how Obama handles the crisis, and especially to howl over the emergency funding. They need to take a delicate approach though, considering North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire are swing states.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Old 10-31-2012, 01:06 AM   #15
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Uninstalling Obama......... ███████████████▒ 97% complete.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:04 AM   #16
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Romney has to win all the states solidly and leaning towards him now, plus Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado.
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Old 11-05-2012, 04:55 PM   #17
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Silver is essentially calling it for Obama. At 86% in his model.

I hope he eats crow.
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Old 11-05-2012, 06:40 PM   #18
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Nate Silver does tend to lean left. If we look elsewhere, such as to Wall Street and Las Vegas where they use trading/gambling instead of polling, Obama is presently a 66.8% favorite on Intrade and at 80% on betfair.

Some right wingers call Obama the worst president since Hoover. If that's so, you'd think they could have come up with a candidate worth voting for, but they best they found was Captain Etch-a-sketch.
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Old 11-05-2012, 06:53 PM   #19
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Allegedly, 81% of the world hopes that Obama wins. Of the 36 nations polled, only China favored Romney.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-election.html

Quote:
A poll of more than 570,000 people across the globe has revealed non-Americans want Barack Obama to remain President of the United States.

Interestingly, the only country that would prefer Romney as the next President was China - with 52 per cent voting in his favour.

In the UK, Obama came out with a huge 85 per cent of the vote.

Argentina: 83 % Obama, 17 % Romney
Austria: 93 % Obama, 7 % Romney
Belgium: 93 % Obama, 7 % Romney
Brazil: 90 % Obama, 10 % Romney
Canada: 83 % Obama, 17 % Romney
Chile: 80 % Obama, 20 % Romney
China: 48 % Obama, 52 % Romney
Colombia: 77 % Obama, 23 % Romney
Costa Rica: 83 % Obama, 17 % Romney
Finland: 93 % Obama, 7 % Romney
France: 88 % Obama, 12 % Romney
Germany: 92 % Obama, 8 % Romney
Greece: 82 % Obama, 18 % Romney
Hong Kong: 85 % Obama, 15 % Romney
India: 64 % Obama, 36 % Romney
Indonesia: 87 % Obama, 13 % Romney
Ireland: 86 % Obama, 14 % Romney
Italy: 87 % Obama, 13 % Romney
Japan: 75 % Obama, 25 % Romney
Latin America: 79 % Obama, 21 % Romney
Mexico: 88 % Obama, 12 % Romney
Middle East: 79 % Obama, 21 % Romney
Peru: 75 % Obama, 25 % Romney
Philippines: 62 % Obama, 38 % Romney
Poland: 64 % Obama, 36 % Romney
Portugal: 94 % Obama, 6 % Romney
Russia: 73 % Obama, 27 % Romney
Singapore: 82 % Obama, 18 % Romney
South Africa: 68 % Obama, 32 % Romney
Spain: 82 % Obama, 18 % Romney
Sweden: 90 % Obama, 10 % Romney
Taiwan: 69 % Obama, 31 % Romney
Thailand: 65 % Obama, 35 % Romney
Turkey: 73 % Obama, 27 % Romney
UK: 85 % Obama, 15 % Romney
Venezuela: 77 % Obama, 23 % Romney
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Old 11-05-2012, 06:57 PM   #20
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those people are stupid. They think Michael Jackson is awesome.
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