MWC in BCS

[All-American]

What a lot of Utah fans didn't notice back in 2004 during all the hubbub about breaking the BCS is that they should have been absolutely infuriated that they weren't given a chance at hoisting the ultimate trophy.

Can't blame them, I guess. They were treading new territory, after all; no other non-BCS team had managed to make it even to a BCS game, let alone the BCS game. But the fact of the matter is that lost in all the Tostitos confetti and glimmering 12-0 record is the fact that Utah was one of only three undefeated teams at the end of the season.

What is even less recognized, it seems, is the fact that a couple of twists and turns could have easily landed them in the big game itself. One needs to look no further than the recently concluded season. Had Utah made their run in a year like unto this last one, where a one-loss Ohio State played a two-loss LSU for the championship, the Utes may very well have had a chance to have it handed to them by a legitimate opponent on the biggest stage of them all (or, who knows, maybe even win it). As it was, they played in a year where USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, AND Boise State all went undefeated. Teams were going to be excluded, and nobody was going to shed tears over the two non-BCS teams. But all that needed to happen was a freak loss or two, which apparently aren't as unusual as they used to be, and the Utes could have been in the game to end them all.

This begs the question:

What would it take for a non-BCS team to make it into the National Championship game?

For starters:

-- They cannot start the season unranked and hope to climb all the way to the top, as BYU did in 1984. Even with the unbelievable amount of luck which the Cougars had, with all the right teams losing at all the right times, the modern era can't stomach an upstart in the top 5, even if they are insiders like Kansas and Missouri, and especially if they should come from outside the BCS.

-- They cannot lose. Ohio State and LSU can afford losses in a freak season like 2007. A non-BCS team cannot, especially after Hawaii's debacle in the sugar bowl. A one-loss team, whose loss comes at the beginning of the season to a respectable opponent, may soon break the BCS, but will have no shot at the national championship.

-- They must destroy the teams they play. Weak SOS is always going to come into the discussion when a non-BCS team makes a run at the big time. If they are going to garner national respect, they must do to their weaker opponents what big-time programs do to weaker opponents: run them into the ground. A close call or two may be forgivable, but only to a certain extent.

-- They must play a few respectable opponents. A respected name, a solid in-conference opponent or two, a ranked team-- all of these would help belay the attention given to the suspect SOS.

-- The right teams must lose. In a 2005 season where USC and Texas were #1 and #2 throughout the entire year, no other team will have a chance. In a 2005 season where no other team went undefeated, that wasn't really that big of an issue, of course, but there's no denying that a little bit of luck, involving the right teams losing at the right times, has everything to do with whether or not an outsider will get asked to the dance.

A longshot? Absolutely. But stranger things have happened before.

[Spaz]

I don't believe it's impossible. Sure, the right situation has to occur, making it unlikely, but it's not out of the realm for a team with a very good recent history of success along with a stellar year combined with sub-par years from the BCS contenders.

[Flystripper]

Originally Posted by Spaz

I don't believe it's impossible. Sure, the right situation has to occur, making it unlikely, but it's not out of the realm for a team with a very good recent history of success along with a stellar year combined with sub-par years from the BCS contenders.

The perfect storm would have to occur

[The Borg]

Below is "The Perfect Storm"

Well...oddly enough, I see a strangely similar situation arising with BYU as it did in 1984.

For a team like BYU to have ANY chance at winning a National Championship in the current format, will take a MINIMUM of two years. (2006 & 2007 have laid a great foundation for us currently)

That is why we are in a very precarious, but wonderful position this year. This year, the best that BYU can hope for is to land a BCS game...undefeated or not.

But they MUST position themselves for NEXT year (by winning out or only having 1 loss max)

The prior two years, has set the stage for BYU, much like McMahan and Young did prior to turning the reigns over to Bosco.

IF BYU could go undefeated or even a one loss team, and make it to, and actually WIN the Fiesta Bowl, then they will be positioned for NEXT year to start ranked in the low teens.

Win out NEXT year AFTER winning the Fiesta Bowl THIS year, and you have definite possibilities to the grand prize.

Writers would be looking at:

* A four year record of 32-0 in the MWC + 4 consecutive MWC titles;
* a cummulative 4 year record of 47-5
* OOC wins over Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Florida St., UCLA, Arizona St., TCU, Utah
* 4 consecutive bowl appearances, 2-1 Vegas and a 1-0 Fiesta Bowl record


If BYU accomplishes all of that...you will not only be talking about playing in a NC but you will be hearing and seeing our own Max Hall being mentioned for the Heisman.

I'm not sayin'....I'm just sayin'....

[il Padrino Ute]

It really bothered me that the BCS only threw the Utes a bone by inviting them to play a lousy Pitt team in the Fiesta Bowl. But there was nothing more the Utes could have done. The powers that be in the BCS thought they had set unattainable goals for the little guys and Utah ignored that they weren't supposed to be able to do it.

I see no way any non-BCS team will ever be able to get into the fake championship game. The BCS doesn't want any team outside their little club to benefit from playing in their little computer anointed title game. I honestly believe that those who make the decisions will keep changing their little rules and data will be manipulated against non-BCS teams. Nothing the BCS has done has shown otherwise.

[The Borg]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

It really bothered me that the BCS only threw the Utes a bone by inviting them to play a lousy Pitt team in the Fiesta Bowl. But there was nothing more the Utes could have done. The powers that be in the BCS thought they had set unattainable goals for the little guys and Utah ignored that they weren't supposed to be able to do it.

I see no way any non-BCS team will ever be able to get into the fake championship game. The BCS doesn't want any team outside their little club to benefit from playing in their little computer anointed title game. I honestly believe that those who make the decisions will keep changing their little rules and data will be manipulated against non-BCS teams. Nothing the BCS has done has shown otherwise.

Oh..you're absolutely right.

However, under the current rules...what I mentioned above would need to happen before they could no longer ignore the little guy. Should what I mention happen, there would be another "rule change" or formula tweak to make it again, harder for the little guys to get in.

[The Borg]

....also, one of the best things to happen right now in the current BCS format, is for the BCS to adopt another venue as the 5th BCS bowl game.

Cotton Bowl in particular.

With Jerry Jones building the Mega-bowl/stadium in Dallas...he will NOT let the opportunity go by without him being in the mix for major bowl venues.

That would naturally pull the Big 12 foe from the Fiesta back to their conference footprint in Dallas.

That would open up the Fiesta Bowl for the newest Auto-bid league...the MWC champion! (hopefuly)

Then, you could have a MWC or Pac-10 matchup in the Fiesta...even a potential MWC vs. WAC.

[Brian]

Yes, playing Pitt sucked. Was it Michigan in the #3 or #4 spot? That would have been fun. They didn't deserve the title game because they weren't the best or second best team (at least on paper, which is how these things are decided).

I don't see how it could happen in a weak conference.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by The Borg

Oh..you're absolutely right.

However, under the current rules...what I mentioned above would need to happen before they could no longer ignore the little guy. Should what I mention happen, there would be another "rule change" or formula tweak to make it again, harder for the little guys to get in.

We are in accordance. What you stated could happen, but the BCS would never allow it to happen.

It is amusing to watch us little guys make those self-proclaimed better conferences squirm. In '04, I would have been happy if the Utes had had the chance to play Auburn. That would have been a much better reward for meeting all the criteria that was in place even if it wouldn't have been for their little title game.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Brian

Yes, playing Pitt sucked. Was it Michigan in the #3 or #4 spot? That would have been fun. They didn't deserve the title game because they weren't the best or second best team (at least on paper, which is how these things are decided).

I don't see how it could happen in a weak conference.

You're thinking of Auburn. The Utes should have played the Tigers rather than the Panthers.