Every team is #1 in August!

[WJCougar]

Watching the local news last night, nothing but praise for both the Cougars and Utes and how well they are progressing. John Beck is well on his way to Heisman Status and Brian Johnson is not far behind. Utah has the best O-line and D-line in the nation and Anae has brought the real BYU passing game back to Provo. If only August could carry into September every year.

[SoCalCoug]

This is the time for boundless optimism, which, at least for the past three years, seems to quickly be dashed to pieces when the season starts.

But I think there are still things we can see in the practice reports that can give us some indication of what we might expect in the coming year.

For instance, in going through some of the practice reports from last year, I found the following:

1. From the beginning, observers where extremely high on Watkins and Collie, neither of which had played a down of D-1 football, and one of which was a true freshman. I don't know how many times, after someone was raving about Watkings, I saw the reply, "yeah, but he hasn't played a down yet, it's nothing but hype!" However, the reports were almost uniform in describing Watkins' talent, and they proved to be completely accurate. Collie repeatedly was described as very fundamentally sound and a great route-runner. Both, as predicted, made huge impacts. Therefore, it was, indeed, possible to foresee that these two would have a significant impact on the offense.

2. Last year, although there were always the unbridled optimism about how hard both the offense and defense were working, there were reports that the defense was much more intense than the offense, and that at times, it seemed the offense was kind of going through the drills, without the effort to match the defense. Can anyone deny that this came through in the way the offense seemed lackluster at times last year?

3. Coats, from the beginning of fall practice, was having issues with holding onto the ball and bobbles. But, his blocking was reported to be much improved in fall practice, including at least one time where he put a linebacker on the ground. Coats proved to be very solid in blocking last year, but iffy on his receiving.

4. Wilkerson did not impress in fall camp, nor did he make an impact during the season.

5. Beck played generally well during fall camp, but he was inconsistent at times. There were questions about his decision-making, but he hooked up with Watkins on a number of long TD's.

6. After Watkins and Collie, who were huge upgrades in the receiving corps, there were reports that the rest of the receivers were ordinary (for BYU). Drops and poor mechanics seemed to be an issue in some of the practice reports. Collie was clearly separated from the other freshman receivers, including, specifcally, Antuan Harris.

7. Pitta stood out at tight end.

8. Reynolds and Beck had problems with bad snaps throughout fall camp.

9. O-line was looking improved, but the D seemed to get to the QB a lot, and the running game was having some trouble getting going against them at times. Even though Tahi was the starter at RB at the beginning of the season, many though that during fall camp that Brown was better.

10. Soelberg, who did not have much experience at CB at this time last year, was looking surprisingly solid, although Heaney was clearly the best CB.

So, if you can sift out the unbridled, blue-colored optimism that many of last year's practice reports had, there was enough there to get a feel for what the strengths and weaknesses of the team were. Don't forget, either, that this team was closer than the record indicates to 8-3, rather than the 5-6 actual record.

What does this mean for the upcoming season?

Here is what I have been able to glean from the current crop of practice reports:

1. The offense, and more specifically, John Beck, seems to be grasping the scheme much easier this year. While last year, the defense dominated the offense (it seemed that the offense was able to get going primarily those times after the defense was told to tone down the aggressiveness), the efficiency of this year's offense, under both Beck and Berry, seems night and day from last year.

I think John Beck was unfairly criticized last year for not having the touch or vision to use the short game. I re-watched the Notre Dame game again recently, and he was looking very good at spreading the ball around and moving the offense. I then re-watched later games, such as the UNLV game, where his shoulder was clearly bothering him (he was throwing side-arm then) and he looked much different. These Beck-baggers are basing their opinions of Beck on how he performed with his injuries. Unless he suffers similar injuires this year, I think he's going to be much more like the Notre Dame Beck. Even the announcers were praising his ability to move the ball, and they noted a distinct difference when Berry came into the game.

2. The WR corps this year is going to be the best we've ever had. We already know about Todd Watkins. But others seem to be stepping forward and producing, as well - Griffin, Reed, Mahuika, Meikle, Ashworth and the receivers formerly known as tight ends (including Coats). Nobody last year reasonably expected much more out of Wilkerson, Kukahiko & company - they had problems with dropped passes during fall practice, and they continued to have those sorts of problems during the season.

3. The OL is much improved - more experienced and deeper this year. I think last year we were cautiously optimistic (in general) about the O-line, and I think they did prove to be better over last season, improving as it went on. Last year, the defense consistently dominated - this year, it's more back and forth, with the O-line getting the best of the D-line sometimes, and vice versa. I don't think anyone can reasonably argue that our defensive front 6 are very good this year.

4. The cornerbacks are the biggest concern this year, but I think they will be serviceable. I'm not uncomfortable with Soelberg as our #1 CB - he has the speed to stay with anyone, and I think his technique will improve - at CB, speed can often (thought not always) overcome poor technique. I remember seeing a comment that if we have to rely on Soelberg and Alba as our CB's last year, we would be in a world of trouble - we did, and it wasn't the end of the world. As shallow as we are this year at the position, we're still deeper than last year, and we have a couple of guys (i.e., Robinson) who could prove to be very good. We'll get burned a few times, but it's not going to be an all-out assault on our CB's every game. I like the group of safeties we have - they seem to be inexperienced, but talented and tough.

To sum up: I think we can anticipate a very good offensive team this year. The tools are there, and the team seems to really be grasping the new scheme. I think John Beck very well could throw for 3,500 to 4,000 yards this year. Had he not been injured against Notre Dame, we would have won 8 or 9 games last year.

We have receivers who will step up into the vacancy left by Collie, and there are a lot of weapons for Beck to use. This is John Beck's coming out year.

I think an undefeated season is possible, but I really don't expect fewer than 8 wins. I would be extremely disappointed with 7-4. I don't think this is unrealistic, considering how close (couple field goals, injuries) we were to 8 wins last year. I don't think expecting 30 TD passes from Beck (per Todd Watkins) is unrealistic. He has the tools as a QB, and I think the criticisms of him (touch, decisions) are unfair, because his performance last year was marred by an offensive scheme heavy on the deep throws and by injuries. If you doubt his ability, look at the first two quarters of Notre Dame again.

Yes, looking at the reports from last year is 20-20 hindsight, and I probably was caught up in the optimism last year, ignoring the negative things I saw in last year's practice reports. But the information was there, as I believe it is here this year.

In contrasting this year's reports to last year's, in an effort to minimize the unbridled optimism, there are definite differences, and, I believe there is a reasonable basis for believing things will be turned around this season.