Hypothetical primary results

[Tex]

Let's say Romney ends the pre-Super-Tuesday period as follows:

Iowa - 2nd
New Hamsphire - 2nd (to McCain, regardless of margin)
Michigan - 1st
South Carolina - 2nd (to Huckabee)
Florida - 2nd (to Guiliani)

In good shape for Super Tuesday? Or No?

[SeattleUte]

Originally Posted by Tex

Let's say Romney ends the pre-Super-Tuesday period as follows:

Iowa - 2nd
New Hamsphire - 2nd (to McCain, regardless of margin)
Michigan - 1st
South Carolina - 2nd (to Huckabee)
Florida - 2nd (to Guliani)

In good shape for Super Tuesday? Or No?

No. After today he's history. He was all about gaming the system. From the outset his strategy was, while being last in the polls nationwide, to take Iowa and NH and ride that momentum. He tried essentially to buy those states, and hence the election. Even had his strategy worked at the outset I don't think he'd have been the nominee. You can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all of the time. People now see "the front runner" has no clothes. The blitzkrieg has been halted in the snows of New Hampshire.

[woot]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

No. After today he's history. He was all about gaming the system. From the outset his strategy was, while being last in the polls nationwide, to take Iowa and NH and ride that momentum. He tried essentially to buy those states, and hence the election. Even had his strategy worked at the outset I don't think he'd have been the nominee. You can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all of the time. People now see "the front runner" has no clothes. The blitzkrieg has been halted in the snows of New Hampshire.

I somewhat agree with all of that, but I do wonder, then, who the nominee will be. Giuliani seems to have dropped like a stone in the national polls, and surely Huckabee can't win, right? Does that leave McCain?

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by woot

I somewhat agree with all of that, but I do wonder, then, who the nominee will be. Giuliani seems to have dropped like a stone in the national polls, and surely Huckabee can't win, right? Does that leave McCain?

This, my friend, is the problem. The GOP is in utter chaos. If the future of our country weren't at stake, it would be mighty fun just to kick back and watch this play out.

If I had to guess I'd say Giuliani wins it, though he's looking weak right now.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

No. After today he's history.

You didn't answer my hypothetical. (It's fair if you want to decline, but just say so.)

Let's say he actually finishes in those spots to those people in those primaries. (ie, he isn't "finished" after NH). How many states, if any, does he take on Feb 3rd?

The hypothetical I'm posing is: could Romney consistently come in 2nd place, but to so many different 1st placers that he stays in the running until half the country votes?

I think it's a distinct possibility.

[Tex]

Just for SU.

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/...9-adc50a55ff8c

And again (note, I read this after posting my hypothetical):

http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/a...long_march.php

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

No. After today he's history. He was all about gaming the system. From the outset his strategy was, while being last in the polls nationwide, to take Iowa and NH and ride that momentum. He tried essentially to buy those states, and hence the election. Even had his strategy worked at the outset I don't think he'd have been the nominee. You can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all of the time. People now see "the front runner" has no clothes. The blitzkrieg has been halted in the snows of New Hampshire.

Oddly enough, though, he would be leading in delegate votes, by a lot too. Could that get him the nod as "frontrunner?"

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

This, my friend, is the problem. The GOP is in utter chaos. If the future of our country weren't at stake, it would be mighty fun just to kick back and watch this play out.

If I had to guess I'd say Giuliani wins it, though he's looking weak right now.

This really could be a brokered convention for Republicans. They don't have a frontrunner right now, and unless Romney wins today, they still won't have a clear one after Nevada.

The Republican party may be on the verge of a disaster. How would a brokered convention even work? Would Huck or McCain guys ever go for Romney? Would Romney's go for them? Could Thompson sneak out of nowhere and take it as the least energizing candidate of all time? Giuliani?

[UtahDan]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

This really could be a brokered convention for Republicans. They don't have a frontrunner right now, and unless Romney wins today, they still won't have a clear one after Nevada.

The Republican party may be on the verge of a disaster. How would a brokered convention even work? Would Huck or McCain guys ever go for Romney? Would Romney's go for them? Could Thompson sneak out of nowhere and take it as the least energizing candidate of all time? Giuliani?

Cali has it right. I think that saying it is "over" for Romney today is jumping the gun. That might have been true in other years where the competitors were fewer and better defined. My sense is that we may not know the Republican nominee until the convention. It should be a lot of fun. I'm not quite as dramatic as Barbara is saying that the future of the country is a stake, but this is because I believe that in many areas, particularly foreign policy, there just aren't that many different options.

This is the reason you see incremental policy shifts rather than dramatic ones. Plus I don't think any particular candidate can ruin the country. Many people on the left think the W has absolutely run this country into the ground, but if Obama is elected everything will be great in America again before he even lifts his pen. Its mostly perception, and policy doesn't move that dramatically. Separation of powers ensures that. If you don't buy it (not you Cali just in general) ask yourself what radical reforms our Republican president was able to accomplish with his Republican congress.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by UtahDan

Cali has it right. I think that saying it is "over" for Romney today is jumping the gun. That might have been true in other years where the competitors were fewer and better defined. My sense is that we may not know the Republican nominee until the convention. It should be a lot of fun. I'm not quite as dramatic as Barbara is saying that the future of the country is a stake, but this is because I believe that in many areas, particularly foreign policy, there just aren't that many different options.

This is the reason you see incremental policy shifts rather than dramatic ones. Plus I don't think any particular candidate can ruin the country. Many people on the left think the W has absolutely run this country into the ground, but if Obama is elected everything will be great in America again before he even lifts his pen. Its mostly perception, and policy doesn't move that dramatically. Separation of powers ensures that. If you don't buy it (not you Cali just in general) ask yourself what radical reforms our Republican president was able to accomplish with his Republican congress.

I agree. It seems the biggest reason candidates drop out is because of lack of funds. Mitt is flush, so no reason to jump ship while it's a long road ahead. I don't think the Rebulican establishment will suddenly jump behind John just because he wins today, especially given his negatives (he's a cranky ass old man). South Carolina is going to be a dog fight and the amity that currently exists between John and Mike will dissapear very quickly because they'll be fighting for the same voters. I think this will be drawn out and very interesting and fun to watch. How refreshing, we're not going to let the media decide who the nominee will be.

I think Rudy eventually comes out on top. Perchance there is a brokered convention, even better for Rudy. He will be the only candidate behind whom the hateful three will be willing to throw their support.