It appears that even with Trent leaving - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

Goatnapper'96 · 06-03-2008, 08:30 PM

Rose recruited nobody else for next year for BYU. Perhaps he is hoping for a good transfer, we shall see.

It appears that next years roster will be:
Fredette -SO
Lloyd - SO (RS?)
Morgan RS JR
Emery SO (RS?)
Cummard SR
Abuou FR (RS?)
Tavernari JR - Go pro after next year to Dallas Mavericks and become Mike Waters HT?
Hartstock FR (RS?)
Miles JR
MacGregor SR? Poss Med Redshirt (Wish his last name was McKrevitz and his first Phillip)
Anderson RS FR
Rose SR

I think that either Emery, Abuou or Michael Lloyd will redshirt. Today, I choose Lloyd to be the guy. After making that decision, I guess the debate that will rage is what position does Jimmer play? I thought that Rose would recruit a JC guard and what position that dude played would dictate where Jimmer was to play. Rose didn't heed my advice and I guess the question is better answered by figuring out if Jackson Emery is a better 2 than Lamont Morgan is a 1. My guess is that there is no way in hell a kid on his first year back from a mission will start. So I am going with this as my starting lineup:

1: Lamont Morgan
2: Jimmer Fredette
3: Lee Cummard
4: JTav
5: Chris Miles

I think we see Jackson Emery, MacGregor, Harstock and Anderson principally off the bench. Jimmer is going to play the second most minutes next year after Cummard. I bet Fredette sees about 32 mpg split between 1 and 2. Cummard will play about 34 mpg. My guess is Morgan will see about 24 mpg. Jackson Emery will play about 20 and I think we will see Tavernari get some minutes at the 3 this year with BYU playing Harstock and Anderson at the 4 - especially Hartstock. I think this will be about the time breakdown:

Cummard - 34
Fredette - 32
Tavernari, Miles - 28
Morgan - 24
Emery - 20
Hartstock - 15
MacGregor - 12
Anderson - 7

If Emery can go more than 20 mpg, I see him getting closer to 24 mpg in conference and Anderson getting fewer and fewer minutes. I really think BYU moves toward an 8 man rotation this year with those eight being the starters and then Emery, MacGregor and Harstock off the bench. Abuou will be the emergency perimeter player and Anderson the emergency guy in the post.

Will the team be better next year? I think Fredette will be the most improved player. Emery will not be 1/5 the player Jimmer was off the bench offensively, but even as an RM I think Jackson will D up better. However, when BYU has both Emery and Lamont Morgan on the court at the same time, BYU will struggle to score. I think Tavernari will be moderately improved. Cummard will be the best player in the conference. I expect Miles to be the second most improved player. I am really interested to see if he can step up and force teams to respect him in the post. In fact, obviously, I believe it will come down to Miles' improvement that will dictate how good BYU will be next year. I see MacGregor off the bench as no different than Miles was last year. Hartstock is an enigma as compared to Collinsworth. My guess is that Harstock is more skilled but not the athlete. Harstock also has been away from the game for a couple of years and will have RMitis. I am probably overestimating what his contribution will be if I expect him to play 15 mpg.

In the end I think the club will be about as good as it has been the past two years, but I think UNLV will be the best team in the MWC. UNLV, BYU and probably one other MWC team (either Utah or UNM) are likely to make the NCAA. I think the MWC will win 3 NCAA Tourney games next year, UNLV will make the sweet 16 and BYU will make the 2nd round.

Indy Coug · 06-03-2008, 08:40 PM

BYU will barely get in, be a lower seed in the 1st round of the NCAA and they will lose again.

MikeWaters · 06-03-2008, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

BYU will barely get int, be a lower seed in the 1st round of the NCAA and they will lose again.

ding-ding.

Goatnapper'96 · 06-03-2008, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

BYU will barely get in, be a lower seed in the 1st round of the NCAA and they will lose again.

In other words the NCAA is gonna screw us!

mpfunk · 06-03-2008, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

BYU will barely get in, be a lower seed in the 1st round of the NCAA and they will lose again.

If BYU doesn't win an NCAA tournament game next year, I don't see any reason to ever expect Rose to win a tourny game.

jay santos · 06-03-2008, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpfunk

If BYU doesn't win an NCAA tournament game next year, I don't see any reason to ever expect Rose to win a tourny game.

As Ute trash talk, I guess this works. But logically it sounds stupid. In this decade, we've been in the tourney five times, with average Vegas odds of maybe about a 40% chance to win each game. Unless you're smarter than Vegas, it's a complete statistical anomaly that BYU has not won a tourney game this decade, and a dumb prediction to say Rose never will win one.

mpfunk · 06-03-2008, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

As Ute trash talk, I guess this works. But logically it sounds stupid. In this decade, we've been in the tourney five times, with average Vegas odds of maybe about a 40% chance to win each game. Unless you're smarter than Vegas, it's a complete statistical anomaly that BYU has not won a tourney game this decade, and a dumb prediction to say Rose never will win one.

Rose has twice gone into the NCAA tournament with the MWC POY. The first year he had the current MWC POY and the guy that won it the following year. Add to that that he also had a guy who is going to be a second round draft pick. Last year he had the POY and a guy who will be a second round draft pick. Next year he has the returning POY and a solid team surrounding him.

Combine the failures of the past two years with Rose's poor tournament record at Dixie and another failure next year will sure point to an inability to win in the tournament.

jay santos · 06-03-2008, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpfunk

Rose has twice gone into the NCAA tournament with the MWC POY. The first year he had the current MWC POY and the guy that won it the following year. Add to that that he also had a guy who is going to be a second round draft pick. Last year he had the POY and a guy who will be a second round draft pick. Next year he has the returning POY and a solid team surrounding him.

Combine the failures of the past two years with Rose's poor tournament record at Dixie and another failure next year will sure point to an inability to win in the tournament.

You don't really believe that, do you?

How much money did you put on A&M vs BYU?

mpfunk · 06-03-2008, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

You don't really believe that, do you?

How much money did you put on A&M vs BYU?

If I was betting on the game, I would have bet on A&M because of BYU's tendencies to suck in the tournament. BYU should have won that game but they did their typical choke job down the stretch. They couldn't get a rebound, couldn't hit shots, and couldn't get a stop. That is the BYU way in the tournament.

I would never bet on BYU to win a tournament game just like I would never bet against Majerus in the first round.

jay santos · 06-03-2008, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpfunk

If I was betting on the game, I would have bet on A&M because of BYU's tendencies to suck in the tournament. BYU should have won that game but they did their typical choke job down the stretch. They couldn't get a rebound, couldn't hit shots, and couldn't get a stop. That is the BYU way in the tournament.

I would never bet on BYU to win a tournament game just like I would never bet against Majerus in the first round.

You don't sound very confident. Actually sounds like you're scared to death of Rose but you're trying to put up a strong front.

06-03-2008, 08:30 PM	#1
Goatnapper'96 Recruiting Coordinator/Bosom Inspector Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,412	It appears that even with Trent leaving Rose recruited nobody else for next year for BYU. Perhaps he is hoping for a good transfer, we shall see. It appears that next years roster will be: Fredette -SO Lloyd - SO (RS?) Morgan RS JR Emery SO (RS?) Cummard SR Abuou FR (RS?) Tavernari JR - Go pro after next year to Dallas Mavericks and become Mike Waters HT? Hartstock FR (RS?) Miles JR MacGregor SR? Poss Med Redshirt (Wish his last name was McKrevitz and his first Phillip) Anderson RS FR Rose SR I think that either Emery, Abuou or Michael Lloyd will redshirt. Today, I choose Lloyd to be the guy. After making that decision, I guess the debate that will rage is what position does Jimmer play? I thought that Rose would recruit a JC guard and what position that dude played would dictate where Jimmer was to play. Rose didn't heed my advice and I guess the question is better answered by figuring out if Jackson Emery is a better 2 than Lamont Morgan is a 1. My guess is that there is no way in hell a kid on his first year back from a mission will start. So I am going with this as my starting lineup: 1: Lamont Morgan 2: Jimmer Fredette 3: Lee Cummard 4: JTav 5: Chris Miles I think we see Jackson Emery, MacGregor, Harstock and Anderson principally off the bench. Jimmer is going to play the second most minutes next year after Cummard. I bet Fredette sees about 32 mpg split between 1 and 2. Cummard will play about 34 mpg. My guess is Morgan will see about 24 mpg. Jackson Emery will play about 20 and I think we will see Tavernari get some minutes at the 3 this year with BYU playing Harstock and Anderson at the 4 - especially Hartstock. I think this will be about the time breakdown: Cummard - 34 Fredette - 32 Tavernari, Miles - 28 Morgan - 24 Emery - 20 Hartstock - 15 MacGregor - 12 Anderson - 7 If Emery can go more than 20 mpg, I see him getting closer to 24 mpg in conference and Anderson getting fewer and fewer minutes. I really think BYU moves toward an 8 man rotation this year with those eight being the starters and then Emery, MacGregor and Harstock off the bench. Abuou will be the emergency perimeter player and Anderson the emergency guy in the post. Will the team be better next year? I think Fredette will be the most improved player. Emery will not be 1/5 the player Jimmer was off the bench offensively, but even as an RM I think Jackson will D up better. However, when BYU has both Emery and Lamont Morgan on the court at the same time, BYU will struggle to score. I think Tavernari will be moderately improved. Cummard will be the best player in the conference. I expect Miles to be the second most improved player. I am really interested to see if he can step up and force teams to respect him in the post. In fact, obviously, I believe it will come down to Miles' improvement that will dictate how good BYU will be next year. I see MacGregor off the bench as no different than Miles was last year. Hartstock is an enigma as compared to Collinsworth. My guess is that Harstock is more skilled but not the athlete. Harstock also has been away from the game for a couple of years and will have RMitis. I am probably overestimating what his contribution will be if I expect him to play 15 mpg. In the end I think the club will be about as good as it has been the past two years, but I think UNLV will be the best team in the MWC. UNLV, BYU and probably one other MWC team (either Utah or UNM) are likely to make the NCAA. I think the MWC will win 3 NCAA Tourney games next year, UNLV will make the sweet 16 and BYU will make the 2nd round. __________________ She had a psychiatrist who said because I didn't trust the water system, the school system, the government, I was paranoid," he said. "I had a psychiatrist who said her psychiatrist was stupid."

06-03-2008, 08:40 PM	#2
Indy Coug Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Between Iraq and a hard place Posts: 7,569	BYU will barely get in, be a lower seed in the 1st round of the NCAA and they will lose again. Last edited by Indy Coug; 06-03-2008 at 08:42 PM.